Washington's three-year drop raises questions about Jedd Fisch's ability to stabilize the program
- 1 new takes in the last 7 days
- Coverage leans upbeat so far, only a few posts
- Win total 4.5 — line down since open
- Washington has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first season outside the top-1…
How past storylines turned out
Washington's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Washington's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Washington's climb into dynasty-caliber territory held for another season.
Washington's head-coaching hire held for another season.
The gap market · model · fans
CFP title odds: #25 in the field (0.6% implied). SP+ model: #35 in the field. Win total: 4.5 wins, moved -2.0 since open. Our model reads the coverage as leaning upbeat so far, only a few posts.
The market has Washington #25 in CFP title odds — the model rates them #35 in SP+. 10-spot gap: the market is more bullish than the model.
The two cases
“Former 49ers coach Jim Tomsula trying to boost American football in Europe”
Watch next
The non-obvious thing to track
The drop in power rating suggests a lag in talent development and coaching consistency, which may not fully surface until the schedule eases in the coming seasons. Watch whether Washington's upcoming non-conference opponents allow for a more competitive schedule to reveal the team's true capabilities.
Our read of the beats above.
Rooms tap to switch
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
No coverage in this room yet.
The 'wait and see' counter: power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
How it developed newest first
2 weeks ago
Washington win total fell from 7.5 to 4.5 (−3 wins) between Oct 15 and Oct 16, 2026 (tier B).
win total down 3.0 — crosses below bowl eligibility territory
Why it mattersJedd Fisch's third season opens with a 9-4 record and a 0.5-win jump, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions if #24 talent can sustain contender altitude in the Big Ten.
Washington: an off-field feud following the program.
Why it mattersJedd Fisch's third season at Washington begins with a 9-4 record and an uneasy fanbase questioning whether contender altitude can be sustained amid off-field tensions.
Jimmie Dougherty replaced Brennan Carroll as Washington's offensive coordinator.
Why it mattersJedd Fisch's second season at Washington follows a 9-4 campaign, with a coordinator change reshaping units as the program seeks to sustain contender altitude in the Big Ten.
Washington signed a top-13 recruiting class.
program's highest-ranked recruiting class since 2019 (previously #15)
Why it mattersKodi Greene (OT, #19 nationally) headlines Washington's highest-ranked class since 2019 — a statement in the Pacific Northwest as Jedd Fisch rebuilds with 24% QB production returning and Oregon's top-3 haul looming.
Washington has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 25% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 20%.
a 27-10 record over the last three regular seasons
Why it mattersWashington has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first season outside the top-15% tier raises the question of whether Jedd Fisch's second year can stabilize a program that fell from.
Washington has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 19% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 19% a year ago.
a 29-8 record over the last three regular seasons
Why it mattersWashington has reached elite-tier consistency — three straight winning seasons raise the question of whether Jedd Fisch's second year can hold the program's top-15% power rating without the novelty of.
Washington enters 2026 rated No. 13 in 2025 SP+ (+18.4), up 45 spots from 2024.
Why it mattersWashington leaped 45 spots in SP+ — the 9-4 record and #37 talent rank suggest momentum, but Jedd Fisch’s second season will test whether the program’s contender altitude can be sustained in the Pac-12.
Washington signed a top-23 recruiting class.
first top-25 recruiting class since 2020
Why it mattersZaydrius Rainey-Sale (LB, #100 nationally) headlines Washington's first top-25 class since 2020 — a direct response to Oregon's top-5 haul while Jedd Fisch rebuilds with just 42% production returning.