cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Sesi Vailahi /Oklahoma State

Sesi Vailahi

RB · Oklahoma State · So · #3

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

152 RUSH YDS · 2 RUSH TD · 42 CARRIES

2026 TRANSFERTransferred Oklahoma State → Utah State for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Utah State

2025Oklahoma State
2026Utah State

RB · OKLAHOMA STATE · BIG 12

Sesi Vailahi

  • 2
  • #3
  • 5-9 | 206 lb
  • Salt Lake City, UT

CFB Zeitgeist Score

13

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rush tds at the 26th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#2317

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R06 · Starter

Starter. A locked-in starting role.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2023–2025
27.02023
1522025

+463%

Up 463% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#2041 national
CFB
College
Oklahoma State
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB
Class2
Jersey3
Measurements5-9 | 206 lb
HometownSalt Lake City, UT
Primary teamOklahoma State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 2041 recruit
Composite rating 0.8211 HighSchool
Signed with Oklahoma State 2023
Origin West Salt Lake City, UT, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 3-star | 0.8211 No. 2041 recruit | HighSchool | Oklahoma State

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Utah State 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 20, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 Oklahoma State -> Utah State 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#2317Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#2380Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Oklahoma State

Composite

0.8211

#2041 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Sesi Vailahi

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Sesi Vailahi

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 9g
152Rush yards
42Carries
2Rush TDs
Per game
16.9Rush yards
5Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
219.6Rush yards
61Carries
3Rush TDs

To hit 750-yard season (currently 152): needs 149.5/game over remaining 4.

To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 152): needs 212/game over remaining 4.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 152): needs 337/game over remaining 4.

To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 2/game over remaining 4.

To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 3.2/game over remaining 4.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 4.5/game over remaining 4.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Sesi Vailahi's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Oklahoma State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #2317 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 9.1% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Development arc The card should explain why this profile stands out

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 206 152 rush | 54 rec | #373/735 (49th pct)
Rush TD 2 42 carries | #247/739 (67th pct)
Yards/carry 3.6 Per-rush efficiency | #561/735 (24th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Rushing

CAR
42 54th
YDS
152 49th
YPC
3.6 24th
TD
2 67th

Receiving

REC
8 55th
YDS
54 51st
YPR
6.8 48th
TD
0 70th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 9 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCARYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 27-7vs UT Martin9323.6110
Wk 4L 12-19vs Tulsa
Wk 7L 17-39vs Houston7273.907
Wk 8L 17-49vs Cincinnati7385.4014Season-high 38 yds
Wk 9L 0-42@ Texas Tech6162.704
Wk 10L 21-38@ Kansas571.414
Wk 12L 6-14vs Kansas State2115.508
Wk 13L 14-17@ UCF5193.807
Wk 14L 13-20vs Iowa State122.002
Total421523.5214
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Oklahoma State10-4HC: Mike Gundy · Pass-leaning
2025Oklahoma State1-11HC: Mike Gundy · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Oklahoma State421523.62--
2023Oklahoma State6274.50--
Career2 loaded seasons481793.72--
SeasonTeam
2025Oklahoma State8546.80--
2023Oklahoma State2126.00--
Career2 loaded seasons10666.60--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 8 54 rec yds | #248/552 (55th pct)
Usage 9.1% 14.8% rush share | #351/738 (53rd pct)
Rushing WEPA -- Adjusted value feed still loading
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Rushing Rushing yards 152 #373/735 49th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rush TD 2 #247/739 67th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing Yards / carry 3.6 #561/735 24th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receptions 8 #248/552 55th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving yards 54 #267/548 51st pct Volumevs FBS RB
Usage Role share 9.1% #351/738 53rd pct Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing Carries 42 #338/739 54th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rushing LONG 14 #488/733 34th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving LONG 16 #277/540 49th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Yards / catch 6.8 #287/548 48th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #169/552 70th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Usage Rush share 14.8% #355/738 52nd pct Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage 2nd-down usage 11.6% #282/738 62nd pct Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage 3rd-down usage 9.8% #208/738 72nd pct Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Passing-down usage 9.4% #229/738 69th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage Standard-down usage 8.9% #384/738 48th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage 1st-down usage 7.0% #457/738 38th pct Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Pass share 3.3% #280/738 62nd pct Air-game usagevs FBS RB
Ball Security Fumbles lost 2 #205/256 20th pct Turnoversvs FBS RB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 9 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Home6g18.34.10.2
Road3g14.02.60.3

Win vs Loss

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Wins1g32.03.61.0
Losses8g15.03.50.1

First half vs Second half

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Weeks 1-73g19.73.80.3
Weeks 8+6g15.53.50.2

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

13Below cohort
8 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: long run (2nd).

Rec yards#228 / 338 · 32nd pct
54rece
Receptions#225 / 338 · 32nd pct
8rece
Rush TDs#236 / 349 · 26th pct
2rush
Fumbles lost#154 / 201 · 14th pct
2fumb
Yards / carry#326 / 349 · 6th pct
3.6rush
Rush yards#340 / 349 · 3rd pct
152rush
Carries#339 / 349 · 3rd pct
42rush
Long run#338 / 349 · 3rd pct
14rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · RB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics
Sesi VailahiOklahoma StateTae MeadowsTroy· 52% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 50% simSire GainesBoise State· 49% sim
Rec yards
32
Vailahi
38
Meadows
10
Wright
41
Gaines
Receptions
32
Vailahi
45
Meadows
32
Wright
45
Gaines
Rush TDs
26
Vailahi
72
Meadows
62
Wright
84
Gaines
Fumbles lost
14
Vailahi
49
Meadows
49
Wright
14
Gaines
Yards / carry
6
Vailahi
29
Meadows
33
Wright
53
Gaines
Rush yards
3
Vailahi
74
Meadows
84
Wright
82
Gaines
Carries
3
Vailahi
84
Meadows
92
Wright
84
Gaines
Long run
3
Vailahi
53
Meadows
49
Wright
51
Gaines

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Balanced Back

Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.

RB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Will Jones’s 2021 season.

Will Jones

72%match

Ball State · 2021

#2

Sedrick Alexander

Vanderbilt · 2023

71%
#3

Juma Otoviano

Rice · 2023

68%
#4

Jordan Lovett

Troy · 2025

67%
#5

Jaquari Lewis

App State · 2025

67%

Matches Will on

Yards / carry
Rush TD rate

Differs from Will on

Class year (lower)
EPA / carry (adj) (lower)
Height (lower)

Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Julien Gums’s path through Nicholls.

Julien Gums

96%match

Nicholls · 2022

#2

Jonathan DeBique

Long Island University · 2022

95%
#3

Jason Collins Jr.

Morgan State · 2025

93%
#4

Fredderick Graves

North Carolina A&T · 2025

92%
#5

Kennieth Lacy

Northwestern State · 2024

90%

Matches Julien on

Yards per carry

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Jordan Lovett's junior season at Troy (2025).

Jordan Lovett

70%match

Troy · 2025

#2

Alexander Diggs

Kennesaw State · 2025

67%
#3

Parker Jenkins

East Carolina · 2025

66%
#4

Brian Smith

Louisiana · 2022

64%
#5

Isaiah Johnson

North Texas · 2022

62%

Matches Jordan on

Total rush EPA (college ability)
Height
Receiving share

Differs from Jordan on

Rush TD rate (higher)
Weight (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Mike Gundy

Pass share

47.5%

365 pass / 403 run

Plays / game

64.0

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

9.9%

223 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach
2023
Mike Gundy
Oklahoma State
2025
Mike Gundy
Oklahoma State

Played his entire career under Mike Gundy.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownSalt Lake City, UT
Height5'9"
Weight206 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey3

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Oklahoma State RB2 #2317 #2380 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Oklahoma State RB2 #1773 #1697 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Oklahoma State Big 12 RB 2 No. 3 | 5-9 | 206 lb | Salt Lake City, UT
2024 Oklahoma State Big 12 RB 2 No. 3 | 5-9 | 206 lb | Salt Lake City, UT
2023 Oklahoma State Big 12 RB 2 No. 3 | 5-9 | 206 lb | Salt Lake City, UT