The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Mike Gundy

Followed Les Miles. Mike Gundy raised Oklahoma State from National Program II to Power Program II.

170–90
2005–now · 1 stint
← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 7th career season — faster than 21% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #297 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Oklahoma State, 21 seasons (active)
+21.1
National Program III → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%60%Oklahoma State2005–2025▲ 3.3pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Oklahoma State16.9pt#30 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

16–20 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Lincoln Riley.

Rivalry record
16–20
44.4% · 2 rivals
One-score games
48–32
60.0% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
6–13
31.6%
Rivalry ledger
Texas Tech13–572%
Oklahoma3–1517%
The toughest matchup
vs. Lincoln Riley0–4
4 meetings, 2017–2020
’17 L · blew a 3-pt lead’18 L · blew a 4-pt lead’19 L’20 L
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
6–13 31.6%
Power Program
39–45 46.4%
National Program
43–18 70.5%
Regional Program
55–10 84.6%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.25
#70 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.22
#273 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2005–now
Oklahoma Statebuilderborderline🏆 coach of the year ×2
National Program II → Power Program II
Mike Gundy raised Oklahoma State from National Program II to Power Program II.

1st-best Oklahoma State tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-0.5 pts
#116 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-13.5 pts
#160 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Les Miles (2001–2004).

Season200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Trend
Record & result
Record4–77–67–69–49–411–212–18–510–37–610–310–310–37–68–58–312–27–610–43–90–9
PostseasonW bowlL bowlW bowlW bowlW CFPL bowlW bowlW bowlL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#27#40#45#38#34#38#45#39#29#54#56#53
Style — pass rate
Pass rate44.252.948.649.948.839.240.241.952.455.956.047.5
Coordinators
OCMike YurcichMike YurcichMike YurcichMike YurcichMike YurcichSean GleesonKasey DunnKasey DunnKasey DunnKasey DunnKasey DunnDoug Meacham
DCGlenn SpencerGlenn SpencerGlenn SpencerGlenn SpencerJim KnowlesJim KnowlesJim KnowlesJim KnowlesDerek MasonBryan Nardo / Joe Bob ClementsBryan Nardo / Joe Bob ClementsTodd Grantham
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense43758993885845331661363
Defense26224747175684100519517
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%43.348.449.449.848.534.341.542.849.752.349.751.1
Red-zone pass%27.338.633.337.038.131.429.029.441.042.154.134.8
4th-down go%opp. territory21.415.415.432.636.630.020.018.525.024.146.232.4
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
71
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
85
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-14
#81 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Wendell Gregory On3 modeled · $2,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 240 lbs
across 59 of 71 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+6.8 lbs
#51 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#192 of 255 · less than most
Top states: OK (8), TX (7), UT (6), CA (5), FL (4)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
57.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
60.0
position-weighted
Net
-2.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Hauss Hejny (QB) from TCU
Biggest loss: Shane Illingworth (QB) to Nevada
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Mike Yurcich → Sean Gleeson · 2019
88th pct58th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 48.5% → 34.3% (-14.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 44% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Sean Gleeson → Kasey Dunn · 2020
58th pct45th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 34.3% → 41.5% (+7.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 87% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Glenn Spencer → Jim Knowles · 2018the system held
47th pct36th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: Jim Knowles → Derek Mason · 2022
100th pct51st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Derek Mason → Bryan Nardo / co-Joe Bob Clements · 2023
51st pct9th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
212 lbs
6′3″ avg · #410 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
212 lbs
5′11″ avg · #193 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
196 lbs
6′0″ avg · #236 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
255 lbs
6′5″ avg · #80 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
307 lbs
6′5″ avg · #488 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
306 lbs
6′2″ avg · #32 of 753 · more than most
Edge
268 lbs
6′4″ avg · #14 of 188 · more than most
Linebacker
232 lbs
6′2″ avg · #208 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
192 lbs
6′1″ avg · #265 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
198 lbs
6′1″ avg · #151 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows P from high school
80%
#29 of 29 stints
Grows Edge from high school
75%
#165 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Washington 30–22 Ticketcity Cactus Bowl2015: Lost to Ole Miss 20–48 Allstate Sugar Bowl2016: Beat Colorado 38–8 Valero Alamo Bowl2017: Beat Virginia Tech 30–21 Camping World Bowl2018: Beat Missouri 38–33 CFP2019: Lost to Texas A&M 21–24 Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl2020: Beat Miami 37–34 Cheez-It Bowl2021: Beat Notre Dame 37–35 PlayStation Fiesta Bowl2022: Lost to Wisconsin 17–24 Guaranteed Rate Bowl2023: Beat Texas A&M 31–23 TaxAct Texas Bowl

40 NFL Draft picks: Darrent Williams (2005), Vernand Morency (2005), Billy Bajema (2005), Charlie Johnson (2006), Ryan McBean (2007), Corey Hilliard (2007), Brandon Pettigrew (2009), Russell Okung (2010) + 32 more

Coach of the Year: Big 12 Coach of the Year (2021), Big 12 Chuck Neinas Coach of the Year (2023)

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Malcolm Rodriguez (2021), Ollie Gordon II (2023)

AI Narratives — “Oklahoma State — stat check”.

170–90

Defining games during this era

2023 Big-12 Championship · Texas 49, Oklahoma State 21