Montana State at Nevada
Fan take
Montana State fans
Nevada fans
How they got here
Last two games
Montana State · 2-0
Picked #82 in the preseason · now #100.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last three games · 2025 season
Nevada · 3-9
Picked #229 in the preseason · now #136 — better than expected.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 6-point win over Wyoming as a 6.5-point underdog.
L 17–42 vs UNLV #53 of 668
lost by 25 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 13–7 @ Wyoming #134 of 668
won by 6 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 55–10 vs San José State #142 of 668
won by 45 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 14–51 @ Utah State #111 of 668
lost by 37 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 3–24 vs Boise StateTop 25 #28 of 668
lost by 21 as a 21-point underdog
L 22–24 @ New Mexico #116 of 668
lost by 2 as a 14.5-point underdog
L 10–44 vs San Diego State #52 of 668
lost by 34 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 17–20 @ Fresno State #86 of 668
lost by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 16–31 @ Western Kentucky #116 of 668
lost by 15 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 13–14 vs Middle Tennessee #148 of 668
lost by 1 as a 9.5-point favorite
W 20–17 vs Sacramento State #162 of 668
won by 3 as a 9.5-point favorite
L 11–46 @ Penn StateTop 25 #9 of 668
lost by 35 as a 43.5-point underdog
What’s at stake
Montana State
- Montana State needs 4 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility — 25% to get there with a win here, 0% with a loss.
- Montana State football is a program reborn. The Bobcats spent decades in Montana's shadow, losing the Brawl of the Wild 11 straight years and trailing the all-time series 74-44-5. In 2025, they reversed that curse in a single season: sweeping Montana, winning the Big Sky title, and claiming the FCS National Championship—their first in 42 years. The 2026 offseason marks the arrival of a program that refused to accept perennial second-best.
Nevada
- Nevada hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2019.
The series
Nevada leads the series 3-1
4 meetings since 1946 · Montana State won the last meeting
- 2026Montana State 20–7
- 1996Nevada 31–7
- 1947Nevada 55–0
- 1946Nevada 38–14
Best players
Nevada
- EJ Smith (LB) · 24 tackles
- Dominic Kelley (RB) · 236 rushing yards
- Dylan Labarbera (EDGE) · 15 tackles
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on Nevada’s chances here.
Home +4.5 · O/U 51.5
Conditions
70°F · 12 mph wind · Fair
Nevada is worth +4.1 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 48th percentile.
48% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (20–22 home, 15–31 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 75 games — inside the ±7.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 4,615 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 613 miles to get here.
Montana State 20 – Nevada 7
Called it — picked Montana State to win.
The thread's loudest minute was 04:12 — 12 comments, 12.0× its usual pace.
comments / minute
Comments per minute in the r/CFB game thread, 01:30–06:01 UTC (288 collected). The chart ends where the collected thread ends.
- BoxThe line
Colter Petre (Montana State): 13 tackles
Top 1% tackles game since 2021.
Win-probability model: CollegeFootballData.
Recent games
Nevada
- Wk 1Wvs Western Kentucky49-14
Montana State
- Wk 1Wat Utah Tech54-0
- Wk 1Wvs Butler51-24
Trajectory
The market
Total: 49.5 → 51.5
Book hold: 4.3%
Montana State beat Nevada 20-7 — exactly what the pregame pick had.