SMU's SP+ drop raises doubts about sustaining success after CFP run
- 1 new takes in the last 7 days
- Coverage leans near-unanimous belief
- Win total 9 — line up since open
- SMU enters 2026 — the 11-spot SP+ drop from 2024 raises one question: can Rhett Lashlee…
How past storylines turned out
SMU's climb into dynasty-caliber territory held for another season.
SMU's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
SMU's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The gap market · model · fans
CFP title odds: #21 in the field (0.7% implied) counted. SP+ model: #31 in the field counted. Win total: 9 wins — moved +0.5 since open counted. Coverage leans near-unanimous belief ~ our read.
The market has SMU #21 in CFP title odds — the model rates them #31 in SP+. 10-spot gap: the market is more bullish than the model ~ our read.
The two cases
“No. 17 SMU Rolls In Home Opener Win Over UC Davis, 56-10”
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The non-obvious thing to track
SMU’s drop in SP+ ranking suggests a potential lag in performance, possibly due to a weaker 2025 schedule or internal adjustments that may not yet be reflected in the model. Watch how SMU fares against early-season opponents like TCU and Baylor to see if the 2025 SP+ projection holds up in reality.
~ our read
Rooms tap to switch
The 'the projection is underselling us' read — fans betting the season beats the preview number.
No coverage in this room yet.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter — efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 105 of 792 board posts (13%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
How it developed newest first
SMU: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
why it mattersRhett Lashlee's fifth season at SMU begins with a 9-4 record and a #25 AP finish, but the unease among fans suggests the program's national power status may not be. ~ our read
SMU enters 2026 rated No. 23 in 2025 SP+ (+13.4), down 11 spots from 2024.
why it mattersSMU enters 2026 — the 11-spot SP+ drop from 2024 raises one question: can Rhett Lashlee’s 4th season sustain the 9-4 winning record and Pony Express identity after a CFP appearance? ~ our read
SMU has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 8% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 16% a year ago.
a 29-9 record over the last three regular seasons
why it mattersSMU has reached elite-tier consistency — Rhett Lashlee's fourth season demands whether the 29-9 run is the start of sustained dominance or a fleeting peak. ~ our read