The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: No. 5 UCLA 45%
Win out 2% · expect 1.5 of 4 more wins
Minnesota's chance to win each game left, from our model: UCLA 45%, Penn State 40%, Northwestern 26%, Wisconsin 38%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 75% to 89%, peaking at 90% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 5th in the Big Ten · 3-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Drake Lindsey 1,592 · Rushing TJ Thomas Jr. 381 · Receiving Javon Tracy 460 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #29 | #249 | −42.5✓ +9.5 | Eastern Illinois | W 59-7 114 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Lindsey 264 · Rush Taylor 56 · Rec Tracy 98 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #34 | #129 | +1.5✗ −23.5 | Mississippi State | L 13-38 131 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Lindsey 279 · Rush Taylor 15 · Rec Jennings 88 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #40 | #61 | −22.5✓ +11.5 | Akron | W 41-7 124 Firestorm | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Lindsey 204 · Rush Thomas Jr. 122 · Rec Tracy 91 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #45 | #30 | +12.5✓ +15.5 | @WashingtonTop 25 win | W 27-24 117 | 3-1 | 1-0 | Pass Lindsey 204 · Rush Thomas Jr. 78 · Rec Jennings 58 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #43 | #20 | +6.5✓ +12.5 | MichiganTop 25 win | W 20-14 114 | 4-1 | 2-0 | Pass Lindsey 136 · Rush Thomas Jr. 56 · Rec Jennings 70 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #44 | #106 | −2.5✗ −30.5 | @Purdue | L 13-41 123 | 4-2 | 2-1 | Pass Lindsey 248 · Rush Taylor 15 · Rec Smith 89 |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #64 | #17 | +7.5✓ +10.5 | IowaTop 25 win | W 13-10 129 | 5-2 | 3-1 | Pass Lindsey 137 · Rush Ford 33 · Rec Tracy 45 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #56 | #3 | +20.5✓ +13.5 | @Indiana | L 16-23 129 Firestorm | 5-3 | 3-2 | Pass Lindsey 120 · Rush Thomas Jr. 54 · Rec Tracy 40 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #50 | #19 | +5.5 | UCLA | 12 pm ET · FOX45% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #47 | #43 | @Penn State | time TBA40% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Northwestern | time TBA26% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | @Wisconsin | 7:30 pm ET · NBC | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Minnesota, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Minnesota: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Indiana | L 16-23 | 215 | 1 | 28:27 | -0.069 | 20.0% | 1.66 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | Iowa | W 13-10 | 209 | 1 | 28:53 | -0.055 | 29.0% | 0.99 | One-score win |
| Oct 10 | @Purdue | L 13-41 | 275 | 2 | 22:53 | -0.021 | 28.8% | 1.63 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 3 | Michigan | W 20-14 | 262 | 2 | 37:36 | -0.207 | 37.9% | 0.97 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @Washington | W 27-24 | 329 | 1 | 36:01 | +0.049 | 39.1% | 1.18 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | Akron | W 41-7 | 395 | 1 | 34:04 | +0.219 | 50.0% | 1.20 | Blowout win |
| Sep 12 | Mississippi State | L 13-38 | 292 | 0 | 29:45 | -0.120 | 36.9% | 1.07 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 3 | Eastern Illinois | W 59-7 | 495 | 1 | 36:21 | +0.342 | 60.3% | 0.98 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 309 | 1.1 | +0.017 | 37.8% | 1.21 | ||||
Minnesota's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
I was like, ‘Bro, you’re making a game-winner tomorrow.’ He’s like, ‘Shoot,’ and then he was walking down the field, and I said, ‘This is crazy’
Range of outcomes · Minnesota · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 15%; 6 wins 37%; 7 wins 33%; 8 wins 13%; 9 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Minnesota was a national champion when leather helmets were new — and after eighty years of being told that was a museum, P.J. Fleck has it winning nine bowls in a row and daring the sport to remember the Gophers were once the standard.
Fans hear the program's golden age waved off as a relic of a smaller sport — and answer that the trophies are real, the resurrection is real, and the country keeps underrating a Gophers team that…
Minnesota · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Cold. Bring a heavy coat.
UCLA at Minnesota · Saturday, Nov. 7 · noon ET · FOX · Huntington Bank Stadium.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Minnesota is the Big Ten program whose 6 pre-WWII national titles + P.J. Fleck Row-the-Boat era + Floyd of Rosedale rivalry define what historic-program-resurrected looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
24th percentile among FBS programs
3 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #21, Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News), to #25, Chelsie Brown (KCRG-TV). 67 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Minnesota · 2026