Minnesota

1-1

Big Ten · P.J. Fleck, year 10 (67-45) · Huntington Bank Stadium · 50,850 · 44,548 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#41 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #34 (+9.6) · FPI #74
The marketMinnesota by 24vs Akron · our model 67% Minnesota · a number, not a pick

LastL 13–38 vs Mississippi State · Sat Sep 12 · Joey Gerlach 1 sacks, 1.5 TFL, 4 tackles

Nextvs Akron · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota by 24 · first meeting on record · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
36.0
Pts allowed/game
22.5
Total yards/gm#83 / 138 · 40th pct
393.5
Rush yards/gm#135 / 138 · 3rd pct
80.0
Pass yards/gm#29 / 138 · 79th pct
313.5
Yards allowed/gmT-#50 / 138 · 64th pct
294.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#97 / 138 · 30th pct
151.5
SacksT-#106 / 138 · 16th pct
2
3rd-down convT-#33 / 138 · 73rd pct
50.0%
All 66 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
787393.5/gm5.87/play#83 / 138 · 40th pct#48 / 69 · 31st pct#11 / 18 · 42nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
589294.5/gm5.31/playT-#50 / 138 · 64th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#11 / 18 · 42nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
16080.0/gm1.19/play#135 / 138 · 3rd pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#18 / 18 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
303151.5/gm2.73/play#97 / 138 · 30th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#15 / 18 · 19th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
5326.5/gm#134 / 138 · 3rd pct#68 / 69 · 2nd pct#17 / 18 · 8th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7437.0/gmT-#91 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#53 / 69 · 21st pct#13 / 18 · 31st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
52.5/gmT-#35 / 138 · 70th pctT-#23 / 69 · 60th pct#5 / 18 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#53 / 138 · 50th pctT-#34 / 69 · 36th pctT-#10 / 18 · 33rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
627313.5/gm4.68/play#29 / 138 · 79th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#5 / 18 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
286143.0/gm2.58/playT-#28 / 138 · 80th pctT-#23 / 69 · 67th pct#8 / 18 · 58th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
8140.5/gmT-#17 / 138 · 87th pctT-#6 / 69 · 91st pct#2 / 18 · 92nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3718.5/gmT-#4 / 138 · 97th pct#3 / 69 · 96th pct#1 / 18 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
5728.5/gmT-#13 / 138 · 91st pctT-#5 / 69 · 93rd pct#4 / 18 · 81st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2512.5/gmT-#14 / 138 · 89th pctT-#10 / 69 · 86th pct#5 / 18 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
10.5/gmT-#114 / 138 · 11th pctT-#60 / 69 · 8th pctT-#14 / 18 · 17th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#103 / 138 · 19th pctT-#62 / 69 · 8th pctT-#15 / 18 · 14th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
00.0/gmT-#92 / 138 · 17th pctT-#42 / 69 · 20th pctT-#10 / 18 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 69 · 93rd pctT-#1 / 18 · 94th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
21.0/gmT-#106 / 138 · 16th pctT-#61 / 69 · 8th pctT-#14 / 18 · 17th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#33 / 138 · 67th pctT-#20 / 69 · 62nd pctT-#4 / 18 · 64th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
157.5/gmT-#22 / 138 · 82nd pctT-#14 / 69 · 78th pctT-#3 / 18 · 83rd pct#10 / 11 · 18th pct
Opp
115.5/gmT-#81 / 138 · 34th pctT-#47 / 69 · 27th pctT-#13 / 18 · 25th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
4221.0/gmT-#73 / 138 · 45th pctT-#44 / 69 · 35th pctT-#8 / 18 · 56th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3216.0/gmT-#46 / 138 · 65th pctT-#35 / 69 · 48th pctT-#8 / 18 · 56th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
147.0/gmT-#28 / 138 · 77th pctT-#14 / 69 · 78th pctT-#4 / 18 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
94.5/gmT-#52 / 138 · 58th pctT-#36 / 69 · 45th pctT-#11 / 18 · 36th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2814.0/gmT-#45 / 138 · 64th pctT-#19 / 69 · 70th pctT-#6 / 18 · 67th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2311.5/gmT-#19 / 138 · 84th pctT-#6 / 69 · 89th pctT-#4 / 18 · 72nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
31.5/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#12 / 69 · 72nd pctT-#3 / 18 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#26 / 138 · 66th pctT-#15 / 69 · 62nd pctT-#7 / 18 · 56th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
42.0/gmT-#47 / 138 · 60th pctT-#24 / 69 · 59th pctT-#7 / 18 · 56th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#3 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#2 / 69 · 93rd pctT-#2 / 18 · 86th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
66:0633:03/gm#40 / 138 · 71st pct#17 / 69 · 76th pct#4 / 18 · 81st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
53:5426:57/gm#31 / 138 · 78th pct#17 / 69 · 76th pct#4 / 18 · 81st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.09 EPA/play5250 / 7269.4543
#34 FBS
7.510137.45372.07.42.7
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.17 EPA/play1220713.53
#11 FBS
27
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Possession Receiver · +0.26 EPA/play11212149
#72 FBS
12.4055
+0.46 EPA/play1321014514.5034
-0.20 EPA/play828779.6020

2026 stat leaders · Minnesota

through 2 games

Maverick Baranowski leads Minnesota with 15 tackles through 2 games.

1. Maverick Baranowski LB 15 tackles
2. Drake Lindsey QB 543 passing yards
3. Javon Tracy WR 149 receiving yards
4. Noah Jennings WR 145 receiving yards
5. Kerry Brown DB 12 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Minnesota fields a struggling methodical, ball-control offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
25th pct EPA/play
Tempo
32nd pct success, 6th explosiveness
Defense
54th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
77th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Minnesota · 2025

Minnesota reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 24%) and passing epa allowed (top 43%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Minnesota sits at the 5th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.10
25th
Success Rate +0.40
32nd
Explosive Plays +1.14
6th
Rushing EPA +0.00
14th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.14
54th
Success Rate Allowed +0.42
41st
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.19
77th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.22
58th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.21
36th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.07
53rd
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 12 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Minnesota · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Minnesota is worth +4.1 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 49th percentile of 133 programs

65% at home, 47% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (32–17 home, 18–20 away). Interval ±4.2.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Minnesota has beaten the number by 8.2 points more at home than away over 72 games — outside the ±7.2 that many games can resolve. This is one of the few buildings where the results say something the flat number does not.

Huntington Bank Stadium seats 50,850 and has averaged 92% full (46,709, 30 games reported). Visitors cover a median 509 miles to get here since 2018 — 48th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 16% of the 2026 roster (17 of 106 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 54 home games since 2018.

Home32–17Away18–20Edge+4.1 ±4.2Visitor trip509 mi

More in this tab

Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Minnesota’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Defense: co-Nick Monroe / Danny Collins (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 58% → 2026: 66% · 8-pt range · #133 of 203 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 52% → 2026: 67% · 14-pt range · #97 of 200 · a typical amount
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Minnesota’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.7% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 76-play sample) — mid-pack, 28 of 41 qualifying offenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=76 short-zone plays, raw rate 71.1%
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Minnesota

CFB Zeitgeist

#41

+4.0

SP+

#34

+9.6

FPI

#74

-1.3

Elo

#76

1452

The national models put Minnesota between 34th and 76th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 41st.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Minnesota

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

55°F average kickoff temp; 10% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.

Based on 83 home games with weather data.

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