Mississippi State 38-13 Minnesota (Sep 12, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Mississippi State · Minnesota

Mississippi State2-038

Minnesota1-113Final

Sat, Sep 12 · Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minn. · Crowd 48,048

Mississippi State beat Minnesota 38-13.

We had Minnesota favored. Mississippi State won.

Next: Mississippi State beat South Carolina 41-34, Sat Sep 19

Next: Minnesota beat Akron 41-7, Sat Sep 19

Top comment in the game thread

Blocked *into* the ball? Yeah idk about that one chief

Q2 13:55 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

The turning point: Bothwell 5-yd TD run, Mississippi State leads 14-3 (Q1, 0:22). Mississippi State went from 62% to 85% to win. Fans right then: “Blocked *into* the ball? Yeah idk about that one chief” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Mississippi State a 10% chance, and the closing betting line (Mississippi State was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.

Mississippi State won by 25, after dipping to 41% in the first quarter.

Minnesota never had better than a 59% chance.

Blocked field goalQ4 1:05

FinalMississippi State 38-13 MinnesotaMississippi State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The play that swung it

1Q1 0:22Bothwell 5-yd TD run, Mississippi State leads 14-3Mississippi State 62% → 85% (+23)

The play that swung it

1Q1 0:22Bothwell 5-yd TD run, Mississippi State leads 14-3Minnesota 38% → 15% (−23)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 13:55Fans dispute the blocked punt penalty callQuoted at the top of the page.Thats the right call, there was nothing he could do to get away from itr/CFB game thread
Q2 12:13Taylor throws touchdown pass to Magee as Mississippi State fans celebrate their offenseState fans, sidebar — (Y’all it’s been too long since I’ve felt this. What do I do with my hands)r/CFB game threadWhy doesn't every team score on every drive? Are they stupid?r/CFB game thread
Q2 4:32Taylor passes to Evans for touchdown, making Mississippi State lead 28-3Is Mississippi State legit?r/CFB game threadMight as well put the backups in. And I'm talking about Mississippir/CFB game thread
Q3 2:30Minnesota fans rip Lindsey's short pass call resulting in turnover on downsRight decision to go for it. Horrible play call, and/or choice to throw short of end zoner/CFB game thread

Mississippi State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Mississippi State -1.5), at 41% for Mississippi State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Minnesota or Mississippi State flair (536 and 824); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Mississippi State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Mississippi State scored on 6 of its 9 drives; Minnesota on 2 of its 9.

Mississippi State’s drives are teal, Minnesota’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Minnesota’s side

Minnesota’s best moment: 37-yd punt (Q2 9:35). It lifted Minnesota’s win chance by 12 points.

How Minnesota fans took it: “Well done, MS State better than we all expected - a good team, a great QB, good luck in the SEC, friends.” r/CFB game thread

“Man I love Kamario and Fluff. This offense is something special.”

A Mississippi State fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans had the most to say in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Minnesota fans

collins“I genuinely think our Robb Smith defenses were better than our Collins defenses”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: back, don, run, let.

What it cost

Mississippi State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 5% to 6%.

Make the playoff

Mississippi State · won5% → ▲6%

Minnesota · lost3% → ▼2%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Mississippi State 38, Minnesota 13

Mississippi State covered −1.5 by 23.5. The total, 51, stayed under 53.5.

Team totals	Mississippi State	Minnesota
Total yards	479	292
Passing	16 of 22, 227 yds	31 of 48, 279 yds
Rushing	46 for 252 yds	15 for 13 yds
First downs	28	18
Third down	6 of 10	4 of 13
Fourth down	1 of 1	2 of 3
Turnovers	1	0
Penalties	6 for 60 yds	12 for 115 yds
Time of possession	30:15	29:45

Mississippi State leaders

Passing Kamario Taylor 16 of 22, 227 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Fluff Bothwell 18 for 113 yds, 2 TD; Kamario Taylor 13 for 86 yds
Receiving Anthony Evans III 7 for 121 yds, 1 TD; Zion Ragins 3 for 53 yds, 1 TD

Minnesota leaders

Passing Drake Lindsey 31 of 48, 279 yds
Rushing Darius Taylor 6 for 15 yds; Xavier Ford 2 for 7 yds
Receiving Noah Jennings 7 for 88 yds; Jalen Smith 5 for 51 yds

No rain through the game

74° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Huntington Bank Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 0:22 left3:13 p.m.

Mississippi State 14, Minnesota 3 · Minnesota 15% to win

no rain · 74°

Bothwell 5-yd TD run, Mississippi State leads 14-3

Measured at Minneapolis airport, 6.3 miles away, and St. Paul airport, 8.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Mississippi State · 5-8

Rated 132nd in our preseason ratings, 129th now.

Three straight losses.

L 29-43 vs Wake Forest #36 of 667

lost by 14 as a 3-point favorite

L 19-38 vs Ole MissTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 19 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 27-49 @ MissouriTop 25 #16 of 667

lost by 22 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 21-41 vs GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 20 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 38-35 @ Arkansas #29 of 667

won by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 38-45 vs TexasTop 25 #12 of 667

lost by 7 as an 8.5-point underdog

L 21-23 @ FloridaTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 2 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 9-31 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #12 of 667

lost by 22 as a 17.5-point underdog

L 34-41 vs TennesseeTop 25 #9 of 667

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 38-10 vs Northern Illinois #116 of 667

won by 28 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 63-0 vs Alcorn State #207 of 667

won by 63 as a 42.5-point favorite

W 24-20 vs Arizona StateTop 25 #27 of 667

won by 4 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 34-17 @ Southern Miss #137 of 667

won by 17 as a 15.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Minnesota · 8-5

Rated 29th in our preseason ratings, 34th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 10-point win over Wisconsin as a 2.5-point underdog.

W 20-17 vs New Mexico #90 of 667

won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 17-7 vs Wisconsin #65 of 667

won by 10 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 35-38 @ Northwestern #61 of 667

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 13-42 @ OregonTop 25 #2 of 667

lost by 29 as a 26.5-point underdog

W 23-20 vs Michigan State #76 of 667

won by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

L 3-41 @ IowaTop 25 #29 of 667

lost by 38 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 24-6 vs NebraskaTop 25 #49 of 667

won by 18 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 27-20 vs Purdue #78 of 667

won by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

L 3-42 @ Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667

lost by 39 as a 23.5-point underdog

W 31-28 vs Rutgers #50 of 667

won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 14-27 @ California #45 of 667

lost by 13 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 66-0 vs Northwestern State #256 of 667

won by 66 as a 43-point favorite

W 23-10 vs Buffalo #93 of 667

won by 13 as a 16.5-point favorite

Week by week

Minnesota

Wk 1Wvs Eastern Illinois59-7

Mississippi State

Wk 1Wvs UL Monroe62-13

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Minnesota’s explosive plays against Mississippi State, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Minnesota’s explosive plays against Mississippi State’s defense
Minnesota offense, 26th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 89th
Minnesota’s rushing EPA against Mississippi State’s defense
Minnesota offense, 3rd percentile · Mississippi State defense, 64th
Minnesota’s success rate against Mississippi State’s defense
Minnesota offense, 43rd percentile · Mississippi State defense, 13th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Mississippi StateMinnesota

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Mississippi State fans are in a better mood than Minnesota fans (73rd vs 51st among FBS fanbases), even with Minnesota favored.

Mississippi State favored by 1.5 · Total 53.5

How games like this usually go

Mississippi State by 1.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Mississippi State.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.8%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 74° at kickoff.

Mississippi State at Minnesota · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

74°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
93weather score, Comfortable
Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 5 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's five kickoff times. At Huntington Bank Stadium that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 93 at 2:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

11 am: 98, Comfortable
2:30 pm: 93, Comfortable (this game)
3:15 pm: 94, Comfortable
6 pm: 98, Comfortable
6:45 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Minnesota is worth +4.7 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 59th percentile.

67% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (34-17 home, 19-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.6 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 830 miles to get here.

Mississippi State beats Minnesota 38-13