Mississippi State at South Carolina
Mississippi State (2‑0) travels to South Carolina (2‑0), with South Carolina favored by 3.5. The model gives South Carolina a 83% shot.
How they got here
Last two games
Mississippi State · 2-0
Picked #132 in the preseason · now #107 — better than expected.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last two games
South Carolina · 2-0
Picked #16 in the preseason · now #16 — about right.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 45–9 vs Towson #182 of 669
won by 36 as a 44.5-point favorite
W 57–0 vs Kent State #113 of 669
won by 57 as a 35.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 15, 2026
The series
South Carolina leads the series 10-7
17 meetings since 1992 · South Carolina won the last meeting
- 2023South Carolina 37–30
- 2016Mississippi State 27–14
- 2013South Carolina 34–16
- 2011South Carolina 14–12
- 2007South Carolina 38–21
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Mississippi State
The chip · vs big brotherFans are tired of being treated as the lesser team in their own state — a different school with a different identity, an engineering university with the loudest crowd in the league, told every November that the Egg Bowl is the rivalry that defines them.
What this game touches
The Lebby holding pattern. Jeff Lebby went 2-10 in 2024, then 5-8 in 2025 — his first SEC win didn't come until November 1 against Arkansas, and the year ended with a Duke's Mayo Bowl loss to Wake Forest. A loyal base is being asked, again, to wait for the floor to lift.
South Carolina
The chip · vs the blue bloodsGamecock fans have spent generations as the SEC's welcome mat for Georgia, Clemson, and the rest — and they wear the grievance like a badge. They'll tell you nobody fights harder for less, and that the program that should never be respected keeps refusing to go quietly.
What this game touches
The 2025 collapse. South Carolina opened 2025 ranked No. 13 with quarterback LaNorris Sellers a Heisman contender and finished 4-8 (1-7 SEC). Sellers regressed and was sacked a career-high 43 times; Shane Beamer fired his offensive coordinator mid-season and enters 2026 squarely on the hot seat. The fanbase's oldest fear — that the ceiling is real — got loud again.
Best players
Mississippi State
- Anthony Evans III (WR) · 239 receiving yards
- Kamario Taylor (QB) · 581 passing yards — Heisman odds: 44th (+2200)
- Jalen Smith (LB) · 12 tackles
South Carolina
- Matthew Fuller (RB) · 199 rushing yards
- Lanorris Sellers (QB) · 366 passing yards
- Nyck Harbor (WR) · 105 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 82nd (+25000)
The line, and the room
Mississippi State fans are feeling better about their season (73rd percentile) than South Carolina fans are (34th) — even with South Carolina favored here.
- Model · 83%
- Market · 61%
- South Carolina fans · 34th
- Mississippi State fans · 73rd
Home −3.5 · O/U 59.5
Conditions
93°F · 3 mph wind
South Carolina is worth +4.6 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 62nd percentile.
54% at home, 32% on the road against FBS opponents (26–22 home, 12–25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.2 at home vs. away over 71 games — inside the ±7.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 448 miles to get here.
Recent games
South Carolina
- Wk 1Wvs Kent State57-0
- Wk 2Wvs Towson45-9
Mississippi State
- Wk 1Wvs UL Monroe62-13
- Wk 2Wat Minnesota38-13
Trajectory
The market
Total: 58.5 → 59.5
Book hold: 3.9%
Conference standings
- South Carolina#100-0
- Mississippi State#110-0