Mid-American · Pete Lembo, year 3 (15-12) · UB Stadium · 30,270 · 8,690 avg in 2026
LastL 20–33 at Florida International · Sat Sep 12 · Chance Morrow 173 rec yds, 2 TD, 1 tackles
Nextat Penn State · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Beaver Stadium · Penn State by 39.5 · series 1-3, lost the last 3 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #134 | #222 | -18.5✗ | UAlbany | W 21–17 80 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #138 | #119 | +8.5✗ | @Florida International | L 20–33 142 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #145 | #36 | +39.5 | @Penn State | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #145 | #169 | Robert Morris | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | Western Michigan | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Toledo | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Massachusetts | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Bowling Green | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 4 | @Miami (OH) | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 11 | @Ball State | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 18 | Central Michigan | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | @Akron |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | @Florida International | L 20–33 | 308 | 3 | 29:30 | +0.046 | 24.3% | 180.1% | |
| Sep 3 | UAlbany | W 21–17 | 340 | 1 | 31:53 | +0.152 | 39.8% | 114.5% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 324 | 2.0 | +0.099 | 32.0% | 147.3% | ||||
Buffalo has one MAC title (2008) and one all-time great in Khalil Mack, and just signed the biggest naming-rights deal in conference history a year after its best season in over a decade gave way to a step back.
Buffalo produced a fifth-overall NFL draft pick and an NCAA defensive-record holder in Khalil Mack, yet the program still gets talked about as one of the MAC's anonymous programs. Fans point to Mack's…
The season in chapters
What fans said
L 20–33 at Florida International
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 5-7 · last season
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Cold. 4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Next Sep 19
vs Penn State · away
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Pete Lembo begins his tenure at Buffalo with a 5-7 roster and 66% production returning, but the program's last MAC title in 2008 and Khalil Mack's legacy add weight to this season's stakes.
our readfront page
Nik McMillan is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
our readdeveloping
Buffalo's 5-7 record and lack of a MAC title since 2008 highlight the tension between its recent naming-rights milestone and the need to reclaim conference dominance.
our readdeveloping
Pete Lembo begins his tenure with a 5-7 losing record and a program still seeking its first MAC title since 2008, despite a recent stadium upgrade and Khalil Mack's legacy.
our readbackground
Buffalo enters 2026 — the 95th SP+ ranking and 5-7 record highlight a steep drop from 2024, raising questions about Pete Lembo’s ability to stabilize a program that hasn’t been.
our readbackground
Buffalo enters 2025 at No. 95 in SP+ — Pete Lembo's first season opens with a losing record and talent rank outside the top 100.
our readbackground
Outcome band · Buffalo · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Pete Lembo took over as Buffalo's head coach, replacing Maurice Linguist. It is replaces 4-year head coach Maurice Linguist (14-23). The coverage has largely bought in. The field test is what separates the presser from the program. The coverage has largely bought in, though the field test is still ahead.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 5 of 1302 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
Buffalo: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 74 of 1302 board posts (6%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Buffalo hasn't won a MAC title since 2008, but produced Khalil Mack -- the program's lone Defensive Player of the Year and a fifth-overall NFL draft pick -- and just landed the largest naming-rights deal in MAC history, renaming its home Broadview Stadium, after a 2024 breakout (9-4, Bahamas Bowl champions) gave way to a 5-7 step back in Pete Lembo's second season.
Chance Morrow: 11 rec · 173 yds · 2 TD at Florida International
Top 1% catches game since 2021. at Florida International (FBS) L 20-33.
Elijah Kimble commits to Syracuse
Lembo's first offseason and a CB-pressured depth chart already losing a local Canisius product to an ACC program — No. 95 SP+ teams can't afford to let the regional pipeline leak upward.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
NJ leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
85 signees across 27 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Buffalo player grew up 282 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to UB Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 107 of 118 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
86th percentile among FBS programs
15 penalties committed, 13 drawn on opponents — ceding 41 yards of field position.
148 penalty yards committed vs. 107 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Buffalo · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026