Buffalo beats Bowling Green 31-24
Team pages: Bowling Green · Buffalo
Buffalo beat Bowling Green 31-24. Share this game
We had Buffalo favored. It won.
Next: Bowling Green at Western Michigan, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET · Bowling Green underdog by 13.5
Next: Buffalo at Miami (OH), Tue Nov 3 · 7:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Burch 73-yd TD run, Buffalo leads 31-21 (Q4, 12:18). Buffalo went from 72% to 92% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Buffalo a 64% chance, and the closing betting line (Buffalo was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
The edge changed hands 6 times before Buffalo won it.
Up to 71% in the second quarter, then Bowling Green lost it.
Buffalo · Q4 14:53Buffalo 31-24 Bowling Green
Buffalo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Bowling Green 24-31 BuffaloBowling Green lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 10:13Kastantin 13-yd TD pass to Amachree, Bowling Green goes ahead 21-14Buffalo 49% → 32% (−17)
- 2Q4 12:18Burch 73-yd TD run, Buffalo leads 31-21Buffalo 72% → 92% (+20)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 10:13Kastantin 13-yd TD pass to Amachree, Bowling Green goes ahead 21-14Bowling Green 51% → 68% (+17)
- 2Q4 12:18Burch 73-yd TD run, Buffalo leads 31-21Bowling Green 28% → 8% (−20)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Buffalo -3), at 67% for Buffalo (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Buffalo scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Bowling Green on 4 of its 12.
Buffalo’s drives are teal, Bowling Green’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Bowling Green’s side
Bowling Green’s best moment: Kastantin 13-yd TD pass to Amachree, Bowling Green goes ahead 21-14 (Q3 10:13). It lifted Bowling Green’s win chance by 17 points.
What it cost
Bowling Green’s chance to win the conference fell from 1% to 0%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Bowling Green plays at Western Michigan on Sat Oct 31 with a 0% chance to win the conference. Buffalo plays at Miami (OH) on Tue Nov 3 with a 2% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Buffalo 31, Bowling Green 24
Buffalo covered −3 by 4. The total, 55, went over 44.5.
| Team totals | Bowling Green | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 341 | 378 |
| Passing | 19 of 27, 217 yds | 13 of 21, 127 yds |
| Rushing | 36 for 124 yds | 41 for 251 yds |
| First downs | 17 | 19 |
| Third down | 8 of 15 | 8 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Penalties | 2 for 17 yds | 0 for 0 yds |
| Time of possession | 35:45 | 24:15 |
Bowling Green leaders
- Passing Jay Kastantin 19 of 27, 217 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Austyn Dendy 10 for 39 yds; Jay Kastantin 14 for 34 yds
- Receiving Winn Sharp 5 for 50 yds; Trey Johnson 1 for 40 yds, 1 TD
Buffalo leaders
- Passing Jason Wright 13 of 21, 127 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Messiah Burch 33 for 184 yds, 3 TD; Jason Wright 4 for 35 yds
- Receiving Clint Walker 2 for 40 yds, 1 TD; Chance Morrow 4 for 39 yds
No rain and calm
65° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the north-northeast, gusts to 16
October game-day temperatures at UB Stadium
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Buffalo International Airport, 4.5 miles away, and Niagara Falls International airport, 11 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Bowling Green · 2-5
Rated 117th in our preseason ratings, 149th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Miami (OH) as a 10.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Buffalo · 4-3
Rated 134th in our preseason ratings, 126th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 15-point win over Toledo as an 18.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Buffalo
- Wk 3Lat Penn State13-55
- Wk 4Wvs Robert Morris31-28
- Wk 5Lvs Western Michigan17-20
- Wk 6Wat Toledo23-8
- Wk 7Wvs Massachusetts25-18
Bowling Green
- Wk 3Lat Iowa State7-55
- Wk 4Lvs South Florida6-14
- Wk 5Wat Miami (OH)24-20
- Wk 6Wvs Sacramento State38-10
- Wk 7Lvs Ball State31-32
Power rating by week
Buffalo is rated 1.6 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Bowling Green’s rushing EPA against Buffalo, 46 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Bowling Green’s explosive plays against Buffalo’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 5th percentile · Buffalo defense, 47th
Bowling Green’s rushing EPA against Buffalo’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 9th percentile · Buffalo defense, 55th
Bowling Green’s success rate against Buffalo’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 23rd percentile · Buffalo defense, 60th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Bowling Green leads the series 13-9
22 meetings since 2000 · Buffalo won the last meeting
- 2025Buffalo 28-3
- 2023Bowling Green 24-14
- 2022Buffalo 38-7
- 2021Bowling Green 56-44
- 2020Buffalo 42-17
Each line is Buffalo’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Buffalo fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (80th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Buffalo favored by 3 · Total 44.5
How games like this usually go
Buffalo by 3, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Bowling Green.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −4.5 → −3 · Total: 43.5 → 44.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Buffalo is worth +4.1 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 50th percentile.
56% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (23-18 home, 23-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.2 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 272 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Buffalo6th2-1
- Bowling Green7th2-1