Tarleton State beats Bowling Green 20-13
Team pages: Tarleton State · Bowling Green
Tarleton State beat Bowling Green 20-13. Share this game
We had Tarleton State favored. It won.
Next: Tarleton State beat McNeese 27-24, Sat Sep 12
Top comment in the game thread
Tarleton State delivering 1st FCS vs FBS upset in consecutive years
How it swung
The turning point: Anderson 24-yd TD pass to Schmidt, Tarleton State goes ahead 7-0 (Q1, 9:39). Tarleton State went from 46% to 62% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Tarleton State a 58% chance, and the closing betting line (Tarleton State was a 1.5-point underdog) put it at 45%.
A tight one: Tarleton State bottomed out at 34% and won.
Up to 66% in the first quarter, then Bowling Green lost it.
Tarleton State 20-13 Bowling Green
Tarleton State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Bowling Green 13-20 Tarleton StateBowling Green lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 12:52FumbleDendy 11-yd run, fumblesTarleton State 34% → 47% (+13)
- 2Q1 9:39Anderson 24-yd TD pass to Schmidt, Tarleton State goes ahead 7-0Tarleton State 46% → 62% (+16)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 12:52FumbleDendy 11-yd run, fumblesBowling Green 66% → 53% (−13)
- 2Q1 9:39Anderson 24-yd TD pass to Schmidt, Tarleton State goes ahead 7-0Bowling Green 54% → 38% (−16)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q4 2:10Tarleton State's Tylan Hines rushes 83 yards to seal the upset over Bowling GreenQuoted at the top of the page.
- Q4 1:35A wacky fumble occurred.
This is the best game of the early slate and it’s not particularly close. That wacky fumble was just the next big addition
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Bowling Green -1.5), at 40% for Tarleton State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Every drive
Tarleton State scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Bowling Green on 3 of its 10.
Tarleton State’s drives are teal, Bowling Green’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Bowling Green’s side
Bowling Green’s best moment: Gilkey 0-yd run, turnover on downs (Q4 7:49). It lifted Bowling Green’s win chance by 12 points.
Box score
Tarleton State 20, Bowling Green 13
Tarleton State covered +1.5 by 8.5. The total, 33, stayed under 49.5.
| Team totals | Tarleton State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 464 | 366 |
| Passing | 16 of 24, 206 yds | 24 of 30, 262 yds |
| Rushing | 33 for 258 yds | 37 for 104 yds |
| First downs | 19 | 21 |
| Third down | 1 of 10 | 6 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Penalties | 7 for 62 yds | 7 for 65 yds |
| Time of possession | 25:07 | 34:53 |
Tarleton State leaders
- Passing Kaden Anderson 16 of 24, 206 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Tylan Hines 26 for 250 yds; Kaden Anderson 6 for 8 yds
- Receiving BJ Fleming 3 for 57 yds; Marquis Willis 4 for 52 yds, 1 TD
Bowling Green leaders
- Passing Jay Kastantin 24 of 30, 262 yds
- Rushing Austyn Dendy 15 for 60 yds, 1 TD; Jay Kastantin 9 for 17 yds
- Receiving Jeremiah Scoby 10 for 102 yds; Eli Jacon-Duffy 3 for 46 yds
No rain through the game
75° at kickoff · no rain recorded
September game-day temperatures at Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Toledo airport, 15 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Tarleton State · 12-2
Rated 95th in our preseason ratings, 95th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 21-26 vs Villanova #67 of 667
lost by 5 as a 14.5-point favorite
W 31-13 vs North Dakota #82 of 667
W 45-44 vs Austin Peay #121 of 667
won by 1 as an 18.5-point favorite
W 61-0 vs North Alabama #234 of 667
won by 61 as a 33.5-point favorite
L 28-31 @ Abilene Christian #125 of 667
lost by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 31-7 @ Eastern Kentucky #205 of 667
won by 24 as a 24-point favorite
W 45-10 vs West Georgia #190 of 667
won by 35 as a 20-point favorite
W 41-23 @ Utah Tech #224 of 667
won by 18 as a 28-point favorite
W 52-42 vs Southern Utah #160 of 667
won by 10 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 52-24 vs Chattanooga #175 of 667
won by 28 as a 27-point favorite
W 56-10 @ Central Arkansas #167 of 667
won by 46 as a 13-point favorite
W 59-3 vs Mississippi Valley State #249 of 667
won by 56 as a 44.5-point favorite
W 30-27 @ Army #126 of 667
won by 3 as a 14.5-point underdog
W 42-0 @ Portland State #232 of 667
won by 42 as a 16.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Bowling Green · 4-8
Rated 117th in our preseason ratings.
W 45-14 @ Massachusetts #270 of 667
won by 31 as a 14.5-point favorite
L 16-19 vs Akron #160 of 667
lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 21-27 @ Eastern Michigan #156 of 667
lost by 6 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 3-28 vs Buffalo #127 of 667
lost by 25 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 21-24 @ Kent State #217 of 667
lost by 3 as a 7.5-point favorite
L 6-27 vs Central Michigan #132 of 667
lost by 21 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 28-23 vs Toledo #50 of 667
won by 5 as a 10.5-point underdog
L 20-35 @ Ohio #74 of 667
lost by 15 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 17-40 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #32 of 667
lost by 23 as a 25.5-point underdog
W 23-13 vs Liberty #91 of 667
won by 10 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 20-34 @ CincinnatiTop 25 #51 of 667
lost by 14 as a 21.5-point underdog
W 26-7 vs Lafayette #186 of 667
won by 19 as a 21.5-point favorite
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Bowling Green’s chances here.
Bowling Green favored by 1.5 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
Bowling Green by 1.5, on the usual path until 0:01 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Tarleton State.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: −2.5 → −1.5 · Total: 47.5 → 49.5
The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 77° at kickoff.
Tarleton State at Bowling Green · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green
- 77°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 93weather score, Comfortable
- Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 7 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's seven kickoff times. At Doyt L. Perry Stadium that day, a 6 pm, 7 pm or 7:45 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 93 at noon.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
- noon: 93, Comfortable (this game)
- 12:45 pm: 94, Comfortable
- 2 pm: 93, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
- 6 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7:45 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Bowling Green is worth +2.5 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 22nd percentile.
33% at home, 35% on the road against FBS opponents (13-26 home, 17-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.3 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,023 miles to get here.