The rest of the season
One real test left: Holy Cross 53%
Win out 33% · expect 2.1 of 3 more wins
Villanova's chance to win each game left, from our model: Richmond 74%, Holy Cross 53%, Georgetown 84%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Pat McQuaide 2,057 · Rushing Ja'briel Mace 647 · Receiving Braden Reed 503 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | William & Mary | L 32-35 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Pass McQuaide 270 · Rush Ragland 94 · Rec Hilton 132 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Bucknell | W 17-16 | 1-1 | 1-1 | Pass McQuaide 218 · Rush Mace 70 · Rec Binkowski 71 |
| 2 | Sep 11 | @Louisville | L 13-59 128 Firestorm | 1-2 | 1-1 | Pass McQuaide 166 · Rush Ragland 34 · Rec Mace 73 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Long Island University | W 20-16 | 2-2 | 1-1 | Pass McQuaide 223 · Rush Mace 97 · Rec Binkowski 113 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Colgate | L 21-28 | 2-3 | 1-2 | Pass McQuaide 192 · Rush Ragland 56 · Rec Reed 100 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Morgan State | L 35-38 | 2-4 | 1-2 | Pass McQuaide 266 · Rush Mace 103 · Rec Reed 57 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Fordham | W 38-17 | 3-4 | 2-2 | Pass McQuaide 235 · Rush Ragland 94 · Rec Reed 88 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Lehigh | W 24-18 | 4-4 | 3-2 | Pass McQuaide 194 · Rush Mace 91 · Rec Binkowski 60 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Lafayette | W 44-21 | 5-4 | 4-2 | Pass McQuaide 293 · Rush Mace 88 · Rec Binkowski 103 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Richmond | 1 pm ET74% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Holy Cross | 12 pm ET53% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Georgetown | 1 pm ET84% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Villanova, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Lafayette | W 44-21 | — | — | — | +0.245 | 47.8% | 1.21 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 24 | Lehigh | W 24-18 | — | — | — | +0.296 | 44.8% | 1.39 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | @Fordham | W 38-17 | — | — | — | +0.492 | 54.0% | 1.45 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | Morgan State | L 35-38 | — | — | — | +0.299 | 39.4% | 1.78 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | Colgate | L 21-28 | — | — | — | −0.038 | 44.8% | 1.31 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Long Island University | W 20-16 | — | — | — | −0.017 | 49.2% | 0.85 | One-score win |
| Sep 11 | @Louisville | L 13-59 | 253 | 1 | 30:51 | −0.013 | 25.4% | 1.23 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 5 | @Bucknell | W 17-16 | — | — | — | +0.096 | 39.3% | 1.21 | One-score win |
| Aug 28 | William & Mary | L 32-35 | — | — | — | +0.123 | 50.0% | 1.21 | One-score loss |
| Season average (9 games) | 253 | 1.0 | +0.165 | 43.9% | 1.29 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Range of outcomes · Villanova · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 2%; 6 wins 18%; 7 wins 47%; 8 wins 33%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
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Range of outcomes · Villanova · 2026