Villanova beats Long Island University 20-16
Team pages: Villanova · Long Island University
Villanova beat Long Island University 20-16. Share this game
We had Villanova favored. It won.
Next: Villanova lost to Colgate 28-21, Sat Sep 26
Next: Long Island University lost to Florida International 20-3, Sat Sep 26
How it swung
The turning point: McQuaide 13-yd TD pass to Mace, Villanova goes ahead 20-16 (Q4, 1:08). Villanova went from 58% to 89% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Villanova a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (Villanova was a 18.5-point favorite) put it at 93%.
A tight one: Villanova bottomed out at 47% and won.
Long Island University never had better than a 53% chance.
Villanova 20-16 Long Island University
Villanova wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Long Island University 16-20 VillanovaLong Island University lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:44Johnson 29-yd field goal, Long Island University goes ahead 16-13Villanova 66% → 49% (−17)
- 2Q4 1:08McQuaide 13-yd TD pass to Mace, Villanova goes ahead 20-16Villanova 58% → 89% (+31)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:44Johnson 29-yd field goal, Long Island University goes ahead 16-13Long Island University 34% → 51% (+17)
- 2Q4 1:08McQuaide 13-yd TD pass to Mace, Villanova goes ahead 20-16Long Island University 42% → 11% (−31)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Villanova -18.5), at 90% for Villanova (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Villanova scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Long Island University on 3 of its 9.
Villanova’s drives are teal, Long Island University’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Long Island University’s side
Long Island University’s best moment: Johnson 29-yd field goal, Long Island University goes ahead 16-13 (Q4 2:44). It lifted Long Island University’s win chance by 17 points.
Box score
Villanova 20, Long Island University 16
Long Island University covered +18.5 by 14.5. The total, 36, stayed under 50.5.
Villanova leaders
- Passing Pat McQuaide 19 of 27, 223 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Ja'briel Mace 14 for 97 yds, 1 TD; Isaiah Ragland 11 for 43 yds
- Receiving Brandon Binkowski 6 for 113 yds; Braden Reed 4 for 45 yds
Long Island University leaders
- Passing Ethan Greenwood 8 of 21, 113 yds, 2 INT
- Rushing Ethan Greenwood 26 for 142 yds; Sam Slade 12 for 43 yds
- Receiving Jayden Simpson 1 for 47 yds; Evan Brooks 4 for 33 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Villanova · 1-2
Rated 137th in our preseason ratings, 148th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Long Island University · 0-3
Rated 178th in our preseason ratings, 209th now.
Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.
L 13-35 vs UAlbany #192 of 668
lost by 22 as a 2.5-point underdog
Week by week
Long Island University
- Wk 1Lat North Dakota21-42
- Wk 1Lat Kansas6-51
- Wk 2Lvs UAlbany13-35
Villanova
- Wk 1Lvs William & Mary32-35
- Wk 1Wat Bucknell17-16
- Wk 2Lat Louisville13-59
Power rating by week
Villanova is rated 2.8 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Villanova leads the series 3-0
3 meetings since 2019 · Villanova has won the last 3
- 2024Villanova 24-10
- 2022Villanova 38-21
- 2019Villanova 35-7
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Long Island University’s chances here.
Villanova favored by 18.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Villanova by 18.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The total rose 5 points.
Total: 45.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 8% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 1-11 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3.
The visitors travel about 107 miles to get here.