The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Toledo 8%
Win out 1% · expect 1.6 of 4 more wins
Massachusetts's chance to win each game left, from our model: Ball State 51%, Toledo 8%, Akron 62%, Bowling Green 44%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 2% to 15%, peaking at 85% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 10th in the Mid-American · 1-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing William Watson III 1,025 · Rushing Elijah Faulkner 376 · Receiving Ty Harding 327 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #258 | #68 | +29.5✓ +45.5 | @Rutgers | W 37-21 126 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Watson III 197 · Rush Kimmons IV 78 · Rec Griffin Jr. 61 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #244 | #207 | −23.5✓ +3.5 | Sacred Heart | W 37-10 40 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Watson III 152 · Rush Faulkner 72 · Rec Griffin Jr. 59 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #200 | #236 | −30.5✗ −8.5 | Stonehill | W 36-14 119 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Watson III 160 · Rush Faulkner 61 · Rec Harding 73 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #165 | #148 | −6✓ +23 | @Sacramento State | W 35-6 130 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass Watson III 101 · Rush Watson III 72 · Rec Harding 44 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #135 | #147 | −5.5✗ −29.5 | Eastern Michigan | L 14-38 121 | 4-1 | 1-1 | Pass Watson III 210 · Rush Kimmons IV 73 · Rec Lewis 102 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #141 | #101 | +6✓ +5 | Miami (OH) | L 19-20 122 | 4-2 | 1-2 | Pass McCarthy 171 · Rush Kimmons IV 35 · Rec Harding 91 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #144 | #134 | +6.5✗ −0.5 | @Buffalo | L 18-25 151 | 4-3 | 1-3 | Pass Inagawa 168 · Rush Faulkner 84 · Rec Dia-Johnson 79 |
| 8 | Oct 23 | #146 | #100 | +12.5✗ −6.5 | @UConn | L 16-35 131 Loud | 4-4 | 1-3 | Pass Watson III 205 · Rush Faulkner 15 · Rec Griffin Jr. 77 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 4 | #166 | #153 | −3.5 | Ball State | 7 pm ET · ESPNU51% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 11 | #167 | #40 | @Toledo | time TBA8% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 18 | Akron | time TBA62% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Bowling Green | 12 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for UMass, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for UMass: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | @UConn | L 16-35 | 303 | 0 | 25:45 | -0.058 | 29.4% | 1.17 | |
| Oct 17 | @Buffalo | L 18-25 | 339 | 2 | 31:30 | -0.063 | 40.3% | 0.96 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | Miami (OH) | L 19-20 | 319 | 1 | 30:42 | +0.061 | 35.8% | 1.43 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | Eastern Michigan | L 14-38 | 316 | 2 | 25:25 | +0.055 | 50.0% | 1.05 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 26 | @Sacramento State | W 35-6 | 333 | 0 | 28:08 | +0.257 | 38.9% | 1.25 | Blowout win |
| Sep 19 | Stonehill | W 36-14 | 355 | 1 | 30:08 | +0.138 | 41.0% | 1.38 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 12 | Sacred Heart | W 37-10 | 315 | 0 | 24:59 | +0.444 | 47.5% | 1.39 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 3 | @Rutgers | W 37-21 | 397 | 0 | 36:21 | +0.330 | 52.3% | 1.04 | Best success rate |
| Season average (8 games) | 335 | 0.8 | +0.146 | 41.9% | 1.21 | ||||
UMass's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last four.
I do not know what the third downs were in terms of the distance, but we weren’t very good … the distance [was] probably too much to overcome
Range of outcomes · UMass · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 10%; 5 wins 34%; 6 wins 39%; 7 wins 16%; 8 wins 1%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
UMass spent nearly a decade as a homeless independent and just rejoined a conference — and the first season back, a winless one, was less a verdict than the price of finally having somewhere to climb from.
Outsiders ask why UMass is even at this level — and the fanbase answers that running football at a flagship has always meant explaining itself to people who'd rather it disappear, and showing up…
Massachusetts · Game-day weather
Typical at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium: noon Saturdays score 92, 7:30 pm Saturdays 86
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 112 at noon, 111 at 3:30 pm, 112 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
UMass is playing for the version of itself that gets invited to the conversation.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · UMass · 2026