The rest of the season
Every game left is at least 70%
Win out 52% · expect 2.4 of 3 more wins
Western Michigan's chance to win each game left, from our model: Akron 86%, Eastern Michigan 83%, Miami (OH) 73%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
StandingTied for 2nd in the Mid-American · 4-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Broc Lowry 1,397 · Rushing Jalen Buckley 711 · Receiving Aveion Chenault 540 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Western Michigan:athletics siteMid-AmericanX
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #24 | #19 | +27.5✓ +26.5 | @Michigan | L 12-13 115 Firestorm | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Lowry 89 · Rush Buckley 62 · Rec Chenault 53 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #21 | #168 | −29.5✓ +5.5 | Monmouth | W 49-14 57 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Lowry 212 · Rush Lowry 40 · Rec Chenault 101 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #22 | #147 | −8.5✗ −1.5 | @Rice | W 28-21 125 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Lowry 116 · Rush Buckley 117 · Rec Chenault 62 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #27 | #32 | +8.5✗ −16.5 | Boise State | L 7-32 116 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Lowry 110 · Rush Petty 41 · Rec Buckley 29 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #34 | #157 | −13.5✗ −10.5 | @Buffalo | W 20-17 126 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Lowry 212 · Rush Buckley 62 · Rec Levicki 76 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #48 | #132 | −13.5✓ +17.5 | Kent State | W 38-7 134 | 4-2 | 2-0 | Pass Lowry 257 · Rush Buckley 105 · Rec Parks 55 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #39 | #119 | −7.5✗ −0.5 | @Central Michigan | W 21-14 125 | 5-2 | 3-0 | Pass Lowry 48 · Rush Buckley 150 · Rec Chenault 34 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #43 | #47 | +2.5✗ −4.5 | @Toledo | L 38-45 150 | 5-3 | 3-1 | Pass Lowry 207 · Rush Buckley 92 · Rec Chenault 105 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #44 | #156 | −14✗ −1 | Bowling Green | W 23-10 119 | 6-3 | 4-1 | Pass Lowry 146 · Rush Cabana 110 · Rec Chenault 109 |
| 10 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 11 | Nov 10 | #51 | #159 | @Akron | 7 pm ET · CBS Sports Network86% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 17 | Eastern Michigan | 7 pm ET83% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 24 | Miami (OH) | time TBA73% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Western Michigan, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Western Michigan: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Bowling Green | W 23-10 | 336 | 2 | 27:42 | -0.058 | 33.9% | 1.28 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 24 | @Toledo | L 38-45 | 351 | 3 | 26:40 | -0.025 | 34.9% | 1.73 | Most explosive |
| Oct 17 | @Central Michigan | W 21-14 | 272 | 1 | 29:44 | +0.233 | 46.3% | 0.93 | One-score win |
| Oct 10 | Kent State | W 38-7 | 466 | 0 | 29:47 | +0.347 | 46.2% | 1.34 | Blowout win |
| Oct 3 | @Buffalo | W 20-17 | 327 | 0 | 31:55 | +0.115 | 47.5% | 0.88 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | Boise State | L 7-32 | 223 | 1 | 23:14 | -0.164 | 38.5% | 1.00 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Rice | W 28-21 | 333 | 1 | 32:53 | +0.128 | 41.5% | 1.21 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | Monmouth | W 49-14 | 414 | 0 | 28:08 | +0.451 | 48.3% | 1.33 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Michigan | L 12-13 | 221 | 0 | 40:08 | -0.037 | 32.9% | 1.07 | One-score loss |
| Season average (9 games) | 327 | 0.9 | +0.110 | 41.1% | 1.20 | ||||
Western Michigan's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last one.
After further study and investigation, it is now evident that replay protocol was not properly followed in determining whether time remained on the game clock at the conclusion of the Western Michigan vs. Michigan football game
<1% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Root for Sacramento State over Toledo
Wed 7 pm · Moves Western Michigan’s conference title chance by 8 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
WMU Board approves Asylum Lake transfer.
Statusfront page
Range of outcomes · Western Michigan · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 9%; 8 wins 38%; 9 wins 52%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 27 of 1530 board posts (2%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-3
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Western Michigan was picked seventh in the MAC and won the whole thing — a 23-13 title-game win over Miami, then a 41-6 bowl blowout, the Broncos' first conference title since the P.J. Fleck miracle of 2016.
Bronco fans are sick of being a punchline about a coach who left and a rowing slogan he took with him. They say a program picked seventh and crowned champion proved Kalamazoo can win on its own…
Western Michigan · Game-day weather
Typical at Waldo Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 89
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 112 at noon, 113 at 3:30 pm, 114 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Western Michigan is the MAC program whose P.J. Fleck 2016 13-1 + Cotton Bowl appearance + 'Row the Boat' origin define what scheme-and-brand-pioneer-G5-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
53rd percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Western Michigan · 2026