Western Michigan

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Western Michigan opens season against Michigan with running QBour readMichigan, Western Michigan hockey to meet outdoors in 2027our readThe Eastern Michigan rivalry

Mid-American · Lance Taylor, year 4 (21-20) · Waldo Stadium · 30,200 · 24,605 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#23 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #81 (-4.2) · FPI #65
The marketWestern Michigan by 9.5at Rice · our model 86% Western Michigan · a number, not a pick

LastW 49–14 vs Monmouth · Sat Sep 12 · Broc Lowry 212 pass yds, 3 TD, 40 rush yds

Nextat Rice · Sat Sep 19 · 7 pm ET · Rice Stadium · Western Michigan by 9.5 · series 0-1 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
30.5
Pts allowed/game
13.5
Total yards/gm#119 / 138 · 14th pct
317.5
Rush yards/gm#96 / 138 · 31st pct
140.0
Pass yards/gm#106 / 138 · 24th pct
177.5
Yards allowed/gm#83 / 138 · 40th pct
353.5
Rush yds allowed/gmT-#80 / 138 · 42nd pct
132.0
SacksT-#106 / 138 · 16th pct
2
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down convT-#58 / 138 · 58th pct
44.4%
All 87 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
635317.5/gm5.12/play#119 / 138 · 14th pct#66 / 70 · 6th pct#9 / 13 · 35th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
707353.5/gm5.12/play#83 / 138 · 40th pct#55 / 70 · 22nd pct#4 / 13 · 73rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
280140.0/gm2.26/play#96 / 138 · 31st pct#50 / 70 · 29th pct#8 / 13 · 42nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
264132.0/gm1.91/playT-#80 / 138 · 42nd pctT-#55 / 70 · 21st pct#6 / 13 · 58th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
7839.0/gmT-#55 / 138 · 60th pct#27 / 70 · 62nd pct#4 / 13 · 73rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6934.5/gmT-#69 / 138 · 47th pctT-#44 / 70 · 35th pct#7 / 13 · 50th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#77 / 138 · 34th pctT-#45 / 70 · 29th pctT-#4 / 13 · 58th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#53 / 138 · 50th pctT-#34 / 70 · 36th pctT-#6 / 13 · 54th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
355177.5/gm2.86/play#106 / 138 · 24th pct#62 / 70 · 12th pct#9 / 13 · 35th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
443221.5/gm3.21/playT-#89 / 138 · 36th pctT-#50 / 70 · 29th pct#3 / 13 · 81st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
4623.0/gmT-#112 / 138 · 18th pctT-#62 / 70 · 11th pctT-#10 / 13 · 23rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6934.5/gmT-#100 / 138 · 26th pctT-#52 / 70 · 26th pctT-#8 / 13 · 38th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
3316.5/gmT-#92 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#55 / 70 · 21st pctT-#7 / 13 · 46th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4020.0/gmT-#90 / 138 · 34th pctT-#51 / 70 · 26th pctT-#5 / 13 · 62nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
42.0/gmT-#48 / 138 · 57th pctT-#33 / 70 · 46th pctT-#4 / 13 · 62nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#45 / 138 · 57th pctT-#29 / 70 · 46th pct#3 / 13 · 81st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating#35 / 115 · 70th pct#25 / 60 · 59th pct#5 / 13 · 69th pct
160.9160.9
Interceptions thrown
Team
00.0/gmT-#92 / 138 · 17th pctT-#42 / 70 · 21st pctT-#11 / 13 · 12th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 70 · 64th pctT-#5 / 13 · 54th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
21.0/gmT-#106 / 138 · 16th pctT-#61 / 70 · 9th pctT-#9 / 13 · 23rd pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#61 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#35 / 70 · 46th pctT-#6 / 13 · 54th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
42.0/gmT-#135 / 138 · 2nd pctT-#68 / 70 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 4th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
84.0/gmT-#39 / 138 · 67th pctT-#26 / 70 · 56th pctT-#4 / 13 · 65th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
4020.0/gmT-#86 / 138 · 36th pctT-#51 / 70 · 27th pct#4 / 13 · 73rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3919.5/gmT-#86 / 138 · 37th pctT-#54 / 70 · 21st pct#4 / 13 · 73rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
126.0/gmT-#53 / 138 · 59th pctT-#29 / 70 · 54th pct#6 / 13 · 58th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
147.0/gmT-#111 / 138 · 17th pctT-#60 / 70 · 12th pct#11 / 13 · 19th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2713.5/gmT-#57 / 138 · 57th pctT-#24 / 70 · 64th pctT-#6 / 13 · 54th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3015.0/gmT-#89 / 138 · 31st pctT-#45 / 70 · 29th pct#9 / 13 · 35th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
10.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 29th pctT-#44 / 70 · 32nd pctT-#8 / 13 · 27th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#71 / 138 · 37th pctT-#40 / 70 · 32nd pctT-#4 / 13 · 54th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
21.0/gmT-#98 / 138 · 22nd pctT-#45 / 70 · 29th pctT-#10 / 13 · 19th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
63.0/gmT-#112 / 138 · 14th pctT-#59 / 70 · 11th pct#10 / 13 · 27th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
68:1634:08/gm#29 / 138 · 79th pct#11 / 70 · 85th pct#3 / 13 · 81st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
51:4425:52/gm#21 / 138 · 85th pct#11 / 70 · 85th pct#1 / 13 · 96th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.37 EPA/play12229 / 4170.73017.33
#60 FBS		0156.54656.4——
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.17 EPA/play26—281415.0132——
+0.22 EPA/play6229903.13
#11 FBS		11——
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+0.85 EPA/play88—10177
#41 FBS		17.72
#24 FBS		55
+1.18 EPA/play2210154
#62 FBS		15.4044
+0.00 EPA/play825377.4123

2026 stat leaders · Western Michigan

through 2 games

Justyce Betts leads Western Michigan with 15 tackles through 2 games.

1. Justyce Betts LB 15 tackles
2. Don-Ray Hall Jr. WR 177 receiving yards
3. Domanick Moon LB 13 tackles
4. Aveion Chenault WR 154 receiving yards
5. Jarvarius Sims CB 11 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Western Michigan fields a struggling run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind an elite defense.

Offense
23rd pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
67% run plays
Tempo
50th pct success, 1st explosiveness
Defense
88th pct EPA allowed

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Western Michigan · 2025

Western Michigan reads strongest in epa allowed (top 13%) and passing epa allowed (top 13%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Western Michigan sits at the 0th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.10
23rd
Success Rate +0.42
50th
Explosive Plays +1.09
1st
Rushing EPA +0.09
46th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.05
88th
Success Rate Allowed +0.37
82nd
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.25
57th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.12
88th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.08
7th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.06
61st
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 14 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Western Michigan · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Western Michigan is worth +4.1 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 50th percentile of 133 programs

61% at home, 40% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (22–14 home, 19–29 away). Interval ±4.4.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Western Michigan has beaten the number by +3.7 more at home than away over 74 games — inside the ±6.8 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Waldo Stadium seats 30,200 and has averaged 62% full (18,786, 20 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 196 miles trip since 2018, the 8th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. There is no travel penalty on visitors here either way. 17% of the 2026 roster (25 of 150 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 44 home games since 2018.

Home22–14Away19–29Edge+4.1 ±4.4Visitor trip196 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

Western Michigan's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 51st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 18th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 51st pctileCompetitive snaps on…Worst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Western Michigan hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

39th percentile success on standard downs, 20th on passing downs — a 19-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantWestern MichiganWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Western Michigan’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: Walt Bell (2024–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 37% → 2026: 43% · 6-pt range · #126 of 184 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 33% → 2026: 27% · 12-pt range · #101 of 182 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2024: 54% → 2025: 50% · 4-pt range · #167 of 172 · less than most
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Western Michigan

CFB Zeitgeist

#23

+6.4

SP+

#81

-4.2

FPI

#65

+0.7

Elo

#51

1534

The national models put Western Michigan between 51st and 81st nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 23rd.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Western Michigan

Reads like

AkronMid-AmericanSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateSun BeltSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArkansas StateSun BeltSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up front

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

57°F average kickoff temp; 10% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.

Based on 67 home games with weather data.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site