The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Lance Taylor

Followed Tim Lester. Lance Taylor held Western Michigan at Regional Program II for 4 seasons.

20–19

2023–now · 1 stint

Western Michigan

← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Western Michigan, 4 seasons (active)

+1.4

Regional Program II → Regional Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Western Michigan12.1pt#94 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

5–1 against his rivals. Just 1–2 against Chuck Martin.

Rivalry record

5–1

83.3% · 2 rivals

One-score games

2–5

28.6% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–2

0.0%

Buyout owed

$2,358,750

bigger than 26% of FBS buyouts

Rivalry ledger

Eastern Michigan3–0100%

Central Michigan2–167%

The toughest matchup

vs. Chuck Martin1–2

3 meetings, 2023–2025

’23 L’25 L · blew a 8-pt lead’25 W · wire to wire

33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

0–2 0.0%

Power Program

0–2 0.0%

National Program

0–3 0.0%

Regional Program

13–10 56.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.01

#145 of 319 · a typical amount

Defense marginal impact

-0.03

#184 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2023–now

Western Michigancaretaker🏆 coach of the year

Regional Program II → Regional Program II

Lance Taylor held Western Michigan at Regional Program II for 4 seasons.

8th-best Western Michigan tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+1.5 pts

#105 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

-1.0 pts

#108 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Tim Lester (2017–2022).

Season	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	4–8	6–7	10–4	0–0
Postseason	—	L bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#105	#71	#104	#112
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	45.1	40.3	33.0	37.1
Coordinators
OC	Billy Cosh	Walt Bell	Walt Bell	Walt Bell
DC	Lou Esposito	Scott Power	Chris O'Leary	Greer Martini / Duane Vaughn
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	25	62	42	29
Defense	27	9	87	49
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	45.2	37.2	36.4	42.9
Red-zone pass%	29.4	33.0	21.3	26.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	47.1	54.3	50.0	—

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-20

#88 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 234 lbs

across 41 of 54 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+3.8 lbs

#130 of 255 · a typical amount

Avg. class year

#206 of 255 · less than most

Top states: OH (6), IN (5), MI (4), IL (3), GA (3)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

53.2

position-weighted

Talent lost

55.6

position-weighted

Net

-2.3

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Hayden Wolff (QB) from Old Dominion

Biggest loss: Treyson Bourguet (QB) to BYU

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Billy Cosh → Walt Bell · 2024

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 45.2% → 37.2% (-8.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 79% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Lou Esposito → Scott Power · 2024

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Scott Power → Chris O'Leary · 2025

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Chris O'Leary → co-Greer Martini / co-Duane Vaughn · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

218 lbs

6′3″ avg · #239 of 767 · a typical amount

Running back

200 lbs

5′10″ avg · #618 of 791 · less than most

Wide receiver

186 lbs

6′0″ avg · #685 of 791 · less than most

Tight end

233 lbs

6′3″ avg · #690 of 731 · less than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

297 lbs

6′5″ avg · #737 of 779 · less than most

D-line

271 lbs

6′3″ avg · #636 of 753 · less than most

Linebacker

230 lbs

6′2″ avg · #282 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

175 lbs

6′1″ avg · #771 of 771 · less than most

Safety

187 lbs

6′0″ avg · #340 of 346 · less than most

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Cornerback from high school

73%

#194 of 236 stints

Postseason detail2024: Lost to South Alabama 23–30 IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl2025: Beat Kennesaw State 41–6 Myrtle Beach Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Zaire Barnes (2023), Marshawn Kneeland (2024), Bilhal Kone (2025)

Coach of the Year: MAC Coach of the Year (2025)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Addison West (2024)

20–19