This week · as of Wed Nov 4

6-3, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerWestern MichiganCentral MichiganCentral MichiganEastern MichiganEastern MichiganRegional Programthe building-block levelWestern Michigan when he took over: 20.6 (Regional Program II), its final 2022 readingtook overWestern Michigan, 2023: 4-8, Regional Program IIWestern Michigan, 2023: 4-8, Regional Program II20234-8Western Michigan, 2024: 6-7, Regional Program III20246-7Western Michigan, 2025: 10-4, Regional Program II202510-4Western Michigan, 2026: 6-3, Regional Program IIWestern Michigan, 2026: 6-3, Regional Program II20266-3+1.4best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 1-1

2024Salute to Veterans BowlL 23-302025Myrtle Beach BowlW 41-6

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 23-10 vs. Bowling Green Sat Oct 31
  • This season6-3
  • On track for8-4 regular season
  • Nextat Akron Tue Nov 10
  • Stature84th of 138 FBS programs

Tuesday: at Akron

Tue Nov 10, 7 pm ET CBS Sports Network · Akron is 1-8 · Taylor vs. Joe Moorhead: 1-0 · Western Michigan’s chance to win: 86% (the site’s model)

One headline named him in the last 7 days

85th of 138 FBS head coaches

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 55th of 138 per play. Defense: 73rd.

Offense, per play55thOffense, points per trip inside the 4010thDefense, per play73rdDefense, knocking offenses off schedule116thWorstBest
Offense, per play55th of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 4010th of 138Defense, per play73rd of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule116th of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Western Michigan. The other two rows are where Western Michigan stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Tue Nov 10at Akron (1-8)CBS Sports Network86%
  2. Tue Nov 17vs. Eastern Michigan (4-5)83%
  3. Tue Nov 24vs. Miami (OH) (5-4)73%

Percent: Western Michigan’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Western Michigan stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

80th86th92ndPreseason88thMichigan L 12-13Michigan L 12-13L 12-13Michigan87thMonmouth W 49-14Monmouth W 49-14W 49-14Monmouth86thRice W 28-21Rice W 28-21W 28-21Rice85thBoise State L 7-32Boise State L 7-32L 7-32Boise State84thBuffalo W 20-17Buffalo W 20-17W 20-17Buffalo86thKent State W 38-7Kent State W 38-7W 38-7Kent State84thCentral Michigan W 21-14Central Michigan W 21-14W 21-14Central Michi…83rdToledo L 38-45Toledo L 38-45L 38-45Toledo83rdBowling Green W 23-10Bowling Green W 23-10W 23-10Bowling Green83rdBye84th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 23-10 vs. Bowling Green1 headline · 87th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25L 38-45 at Toledo0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 21-14 at Central Michigan0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11W 38-7 vs. Kent State0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 20-17 at Buffalo0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 7-32 vs. Boise State0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Western Michigan’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 52nd percentile offense, below the median defense at 33rd.

Western Michigan, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B-
of which —52nd
efficiency — 52nd percentile success rate, 2023–25
B-57th
Standard-downs success
C-36th
Passing-downs success
B64th
Trench push (line yards)
C42nd
Red-zone scoring rate
C+46th
Power-success (short yardage)
B+75th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C-
of which —33rd
33rd percentile SP+ defense, 2023–25
B+77th
Front-7 havoc
A81st
Secondary havoc
D21st
Stuff rate (run defense)
B68th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

41%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobCoveted3rd-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 6-3, outscoring opponents by 7.0 points a game
  • ▲ Higher
    His 4th season at Western Michigan
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 45 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.