The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Western Michigan 27%, Ohio 40%
Win out 8% · expect 1.4 of 3 more wins
Miami (OH)'s chance to win each game left, from our model: Ohio 40%, Kent State 76%, Western Michigan 27%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
StandingTied for 5th in the Mid-American · 3-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing David McComb 1,120 · Rushing Rodney Nelson 436 · Receiving Maleek Huggins 473 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 10
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Miami (OH) led by 15, was as high as 100% in the fourth quarter, and still lost.
Miami (OH) 31-34 Buffalo
Miami (OH) lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #78 | #47 | +16.5✗ −28.5 | @Pittsburgh | L 14-59 133 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass McComb 240 · Rush Rogers 21 · Rec Witten 90 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #81 | #209 | −30.5✓ +7.5 | Holy Cross | W 45-7 98 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass McComb 234 · Rush Jones 47 · Rec Billups-Williams 73 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #86 | #109 | +14.5✓ +10.5 | @Cincinnati | L 31-35 132 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass McComb 334 · Rush Nelson 32 · Rec Huggins 128 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #85 | #109 | −2.5✓ +0.5 | UConn | W 24-21 123 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass McComb 312 · Rush McComb 33 · Rec Loftus 72 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #85 | #154 | −10.5✗ −14.5 | Bowling Green | L 20-24 119 | 2-3 | 0-1 | Pass Heavner 198 · Rush Nelson 70 · Rec Billups-Williams 75 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #101 | #141 | −6✗ −5 | @Massachusetts | W 20-19 122 | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Heavner 95 · Rush Heavner 54 · Rec Huggins 47 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #106 | #121 | −9.5✓ +10.5 | Akron | W 34-14 121 | 4-3 | 2-1 | Pass Heavner 65 · Rush Nelson 142 · Rec Witten 27 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #98 | #123 | −3.5✗ −2.5 | @Central Michigan | W 28-27 129 | 5-3 | 3-1 | Pass Heavner 221 · Rush Heavner 58 · Rec Huggins 122 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 3 | #96 | #131 | −6.5✗ −9.5 | Buffalo | L 31-34 150 | 5-4 | 3-2 | Pass Heavner 154 · Rush Jones 112 · Rec Isom 89 |
| 11 | Nov 10 | #102 | #56 | Ohio | 7 pm ET · ESPN240% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 17 | @Kent State | 7 pm ET76% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 24 | @Western Michigan | time TBA27% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Miami (OH), through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Miami (OH): a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | Buffalo | L 31-34 | 350 | 0 | 32:36 | +0.166 | 42.5% | 1.08 | One-score loss |
| Oct 24 | @Central Michigan | W 28-27 | 360 | 2 | 31:12 | -0.002 | 41.4% | 1.34 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Akron | W 34-14 | 389 | 1 | 27:56 | +0.160 | 41.2% | 1.49 | |
| Oct 10 | @Massachusetts | W 20-19 | 260 | 0 | 29:18 | +0.041 | 32.8% | 1.38 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | Bowling Green | L 20-24 | 306 | 0 | 32:42 | +0.014 | 37.7% | 1.22 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | UConn | W 24-21 | 414 | 1 | 32:33 | +0.184 | 41.9% | 1.50 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | @Cincinnati | L 31-35 | 410 | 2 | 26:34 | +0.225 | 39.7% | 1.67 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | Holy Cross | W 45-7 | 437 | 0 | 38:19 | +0.489 | 58.9% | 1.14 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Pittsburgh | L 14-59 | 289 | 1 | 26:04 | +0.114 | 32.2% | 1.53 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (9 games) | 357 | 0.8 | +0.155 | 40.9% | 1.37 | ||||
Miami (OH)'s wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Off this week
7 days
until kickoff · vs Ohio · Tue Nov 10 · 7 pm ET
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
The open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Miami (OH) is the MAC program whose 'Cradle of Coaches' legacy defines its identity — a 7-7 season marks a rare even record, not a step toward its historic football coaching pipeline peak.
Statusbackground
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Miami (OH) · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 11%; 6 wins 44%; 7 wins 37%; 8 wins 8%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 70 of 543 board posts (13%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-4
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Miami is the Cradle of Coaches — the small Ohio school that taught the sport its giants, from Paul Brown to Woody Hayes to Bo Schembechler — and a program whose history runs deeper than the conference it now keeps falling one game short in.
The fanbase points to the names Oxford gave the sport — and watches the program get filed as just another MAC team, as if the place that produced college football's great coaches were a footnote…
Miami (OH) · Game-day weather
Typical at Yager Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 88 to 90
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 98 at noon, 98 at 3:30 pm, 97 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Miami (OH) is the MAC program whose 'Cradle of Coaches' legacy + Paul Brown / Woody Hayes / Bo Schembechler coaching pipeline + 2024 9-4 Sun Bowl appearance define what historic-football-coaching-lineage looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
39th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Miami (OH) · 2026