program_outlookthis cycle✓ factnew
Miami (OH) enters 2026 rated No. 82 in 2025 SP+ (-3.4), down 14 spots from 2024.
our readbackground
Miami (OH)
1-1Latest
Mid-American · Chuck Martin, year 13 (73-75) · Yager Stadium · 24,286 · 11,126 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#85 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #104 (-10.0) · FPI #112
The marketCincinnati by 14.5at Cincinnati · our model 42% Miami (OH) · a number, not a pick
LastW 45–7 vs Holy Cross · Sat Sep 12 · David McComb 234 pass yds, 3 TD, 12 rush yds
Nextat Cincinnati · Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 pm ET · TQL Stadium · Cincinnati by 14.5 · series 34-35-1, last win 2023 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Miami (OH) · 2026 schedule & results1-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #78 | #47 | +16.5✗ | @Pittsburgh | L 14–59 133 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #81 | #212 | -30.5✓ | Holy Cross | W 45–7 98 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #87 | #110 | +14.5 | @Cincinnati | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #86 | #116 | UConn | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | Bowling Green | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Massachusetts | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Akron | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Central Michigan | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 4 | Buffalo | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 11 | Ohio | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 18 | @Kent State | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 24 | @Western Michigan |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | Holy Cross | W 45–7 | 437 | 0 | 38:19 | +0.489 | 58.9% | 113.9% | |
| Sep 5 | @Pittsburgh | L 14–59 | 289 | 1 | 26:04 | +0.114 | 32.2% | 152.9% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 363 | 0.5 | +0.302 | 45.6% | 133.4% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Miami is the Cradle of Coaches — the small Ohio school that taught the sport its giants, from Paul Brown to Woody Hayes to Bo Schembechler — and a program whose history runs deeper than the conference it now keeps falling one game short in.
Title DroughtSince 2019 · 7 yrs
The fanbase points to the names Oxford gave the sport — and watches the program get filed as just another MAC team, as if the place that produced college football's great coaches were a footnote inste…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Miami (OH) fans
r/CFB
▲ 66 · 1w ago
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 7-7 · last season
Game feel45even gamescombined pts / game9th highest-scoring of 13 in the Mid-American
Heart rate0-2rarely closein one-score games (2 of 14)13th most one-score games of 13 in the Mid-American
Margin+1.8competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 13 in the Mid-American
Tempo62average paceoffensive plays / game9th fastest of 13 in the Mid-American
Big plays1.20some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)8th most explosive of 13 in the Mid-American
Home crowd11,658avg attendance8th biggest crowds of 13 in the Mid-American
✓ measured from 14 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Miami (OH) has won two of its last five.
Cooling. 5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 5-5
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Cincinnati · away
PoorStrongBend-don't-break
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#94 in field+100000
MAC title#2 in market+425
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Miami (OH) · the story right now
11 storylines developing
What Miami (OH)'s offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
underdog2025 cycle✓ factnew
Cole Weaver produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
short yardage2025 cycle✓ factnew
Jordan Brunson converts 3rd/4th-and-short at a below-average rate, though he isn't trusted with much of the goal-line work either.
our readdeveloping
deep threat2025 cycle✓ factnew
Kamryn Perry is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
our readdeveloping
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Miami (OH) is the MAC program whose 'Cradle of Coaches' legacy defines its identity — a 7-7 season marks a rare even record, not a step toward its historic football coaching pipeline peak.
what happenedMiami (OH): coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
our readbackground
market_swing2026-09-09✓ factnew
Miami (OH) MAC championship odds shortened — implied probability moved from 18.2% to 22.2% (+4.0pp) between Sep 8 and Sep 9, 2026 (tier C).
the contextwin total up 0.0 — solo market signal, no peers moved the same direction
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Cole Weaver is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Cole Weaver sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
our readbackground
closer2025 cycle~attributednew
D'Shawntae Jones: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Jordan Brunson sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Miami (OH) dropped 14 spots in SP+ — Chuck Martin's sixth season opens with the steepest SP+ collapse in the MAC this cycle.
what happenedMiami (OH) enters 2025 rated No. 82 in SP+ (-3.4), down 14 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
Outcome band · Miami (OH) · 2026
Outcome band · Miami (OH) · 2026Miami (OH)'s most likely season is 7-6 — a bowl game. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 9-4.
Floor 4-8Ceiling 9-4Base 7-6
0 wins13 wins
Floor4-8No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Miami (OH) · Season outlook Confidence
Miami (OH) enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Miami (OH) enters 2026 rated No. 82 in 2025 SP+ (-3.4), down 14 spots from 2024. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The coverage is thin. Quiet preseasons end two ways.
Developing2 new this week
5 days agoMAC title odds: +350 → +450 (▼4.0pp implied)
6 days agoMAC title odds: +450 → +350 (▲4.0pp implied)
last weekMAC title odds: +360 → +450 (▼3.6pp implied)
2 weeks agoPitt unveils two-deep depth chart — Reported
Mar 2CB Amariyun Knighten transfer commits from Indiana — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Quiet preview coverage isn't neutral. It can mean quiet confidence or a program that hasn't earned attention yet — the schedule decides which.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Miami (OH) enters 2026 rated No. 82 in 2025 SP+ (-3.4), down 14 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers0 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Holy Cross Crusaders at Miami (OH) RedHawks - NCAAF Game Summary - Sep 12, 2026”
USA Today · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“Miami (OH) 45-7 Holy Cross (13 Sep, 2026) Game Recap”
ESPN · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“Football falls to FBS foe Miami in Ohio”
Holy Cross Athletics · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards12% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (44%).›
This event was in 38 of 304 board posts (12%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Let's dive into a full preview! No more previewing positions, or looking at portal signings. It's time to actually talk about games! Predicting the season for the #RedHawks!"
r/miamioh ~ fan take
"3 days in, I feel like im doing it wrong. I usually do hand written notes but the prof says ALOTTTT of stuff and i have no idea what i should be writing down and what not to becaus"
r/miamioh ~ fan take
Board health this week (50 posts): 20% positive · 58% neutral · 22% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Miami (OH) · Developing Confidence
Miami (OH): coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Miami (OH): coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Developing2 new this week
5 days agoMAC title odds: +350 → +450 (▼4.0pp implied)
6 days agoMAC title odds: +450 → +350 (▲4.0pp implied)
last weekMAC title odds: +360 → +450 (▼3.6pp implied)
2 weeks agoPitt unveils two-deep depth chart — Reported
Mar 2CB Amariyun Knighten transfer commits from Indiana — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Miami (OH) is the MAC program whose 'Cradle of Coaches' legacy defines its identity — a 7-7 season marks a rare even record, not a step toward its historic football coaching pipeline peak.
Source of record: Miami (OH): coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers0 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Holy Cross Crusaders at Miami (OH) RedHawks - NCAAF Game Summary - Sep 12, 2026”
USA Today · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“Miami (OH) 45-7 Holy Cross (13 Sep, 2026) Game Recap”
ESPN · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“Football falls to FBS foe Miami in Ohio”
Holy Cross Athletics · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards12% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (44%).›
This event was in 38 of 304 board posts (12%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Let's dive into a full preview! No more previewing positions, or looking at portal signings. It's time to actually talk about games! Predicting the season for the #RedHawks!"
r/miamioh ~ fan take
"3 days in, I feel like im doing it wrong. I usually do hand written notes but the prof says ALOTTTT of stuff and i have no idea what i should be writing down and what not to becaus"
r/miamioh ~ fan take
Board health this week (50 posts): 20% positive · 58% neutral · 22% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Rival pulse
Cincinnati
Very Bullish+49
Battle for the Victory Bell (OH)
Ohio
Mixed+0
Battle of the Bricks
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Miami (OH) is the MAC program whose 'Cradle of Coaches' legacy + Paul Brown / Woody Hayes / Bo Schembechler coaching pipeline + 2024 9-4 Sun Bowl appearance define what historic-football-coaching-lineage looks like.
Offense: PoorDefense: StrongDefensive shape: Bend-don't-break
Roster
Roster Reload - Miami (OH)
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production14%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#86 nationally247 composite 621.4
Portal Additions16Primary repair: OT
Portal Losses14Primary pressure: EDGE
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1)
Recruiting Reload#105Depth class
EDGEin 1 - Mikah Colemanout 3 - Adam TrickStarter Risk
Two-Gap Base2025 profilewins his gap play after play
Transferred in
Full roster (121 players)
UNKTrey Wallman
DBAdrian Walker Jr., Amariyun Knighten, Amir Morelan, Ben Minich, CJ Young, Desmon Yharbrough, Dillon Tatum, Easton Jointer, Eli Limouris, Isaiah Rollins, Jackson Pons, Jake Britt, Jermaine Agee, Jerome Smith, Josh Ringer, Kaleb Martin, Leo Colombi, Mason Ellens, Max Deckard, Mitch Bolden, Mychal Yharbrough, Tommy Thies, Toney Coleman Jr.
DLAariz Taylor, Anthony Ludington, Bai Jobe, Brach Rice, Carmine Orozco, Carson Noonan, Devin Bell, Donovan Davis, Isaiah Harris, James Schott, Javon Hammonds, Kameron Wilson, Logan Howell, London Shackleford-Vickroy, Marcus Moore Jr., Mikah Coleman, Mohamed Bangoura, Oyeka Alexander, Roosevelt Andrews III, Sam Williams, William Goodvine III, Zhaiylen Scott
LBBlayne Myrick, Brock Uihlein, Brody Sink, Christian McKinney, Eli Coppess, Evan Gilder, Grant Lyons, Harrison Brewster, Luke Myers, Malcolm Mccain, Malik Ray, Ryan Stolarski, Tyler Dikos, Vito Mcconnell
OLAndrew Lowry, Ayden Annarino, Brandon Lawhorn Moore, Devontae Armstrong, Dominik Kosznicki, Eric Smith, Evan Malcore, Greg Smith Jr., Jacob Schorsch, Jonathan Stangl, Kris Manu, Lucas Barnes, Max Hauck, Max Kief, Mitchell Butler, Shaun Shahu, Zach Hultgren
TEBrayden Boeing, Brendan Loftus, Christian Ross, Eric Karner, Gray Maultsby, Noam Butbul, Trey Zvonar
WRAndrew Bjorson, Brady Simmons, Braylon Isom, CJ Castner, Carl Jenkins Jr., Damarion Witten, Devin Hyatt, Ian Tepas, Jackson Ruth, Justen Hodge, Keith Reynolds, Leo Scheidler, Lynel Billups-Williams, Maleek Huggins, Michael Parrish, Quintin Simmons Jr., Scoop Smith, Tristan Reed, Will Pressley, Wilson Roberts
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Miami (OH)
5 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Pitt unveils two-deep depth chart
Pitt's two-deep drops and Chuck Martin's staff is already circling it — one NFL draft departure and a coordinator overhaul means the EDGE room has real pressure reps available for anyone who can read a depth chart and book a flight.
- Portal
CB Amariyun Knighten transfer commits from Indiana
Big Ten corner falls to the MAC for snaps — Knighten was buried, RedHawks get a starter on day one.
- News
MAC title odds: +350 → +450 (▼4.0pp implied)
Mac title odds dropped 4.0pp without an obvious public catalyst.
- News
MAC title odds: +450 → +350 (▲4.0pp implied)
Mac title odds improved 4.0pp without an obvious public catalyst.
- News
MAC title odds: +360 → +450 (▼3.6pp implied)
Mac title odds dropped 3.6pp in line with recent program news — the books confirmed what was already public.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-0.6 net portal points
(raw ledger: +4.4 — unweighted, no position adjustment)EDGE-7.3
starter risk
OT+6.6
need filled
CB-5.9
S+5.0
WR-4.4
IOL+3.6
low confidence
DL+3.5
low confidence
RB+3.4
LB-0.1
QB+0.0
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Dominik Kosznicki
#1336 national
★★★☆☆
Will Pressley
#1438 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Drew Bellisari
#1474 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
19
OH · 6MI · 5IL · 2PA · 2TN · 2AL · 1IN · 1
OH leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
82 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Miami (OH) player grew up 210 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
30th-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%97–271 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi26%31 of 118 players
Farthest1,900 miNoam Butbul · Calabasas, CA
Closest22 miBen Minich · West Chester, OH
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Yager Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 118 of 121 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
How it turned out
Belief history
↑
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
89th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↑
89th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(62nd among FBS)
(62nd among FBS)
Fans 27pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 1 book
Turnover luck
Fumble luck
35% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — below the ~49% league baseline.
6 of 17 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
12 penalties committed, 9 drawn on opponents — ceding 46 yards of field position.
103 penalty yards committed vs. 57 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site