Western Michigan beats Rice 28-21
Team pages: Western Michigan · Rice
Western Michigan beat Rice 28-21. Share this game
We had Western Michigan favored. It won.
How it swung
The turning point: Byars 1-yd TD run, ties it 14-14 (Q3, 9:15). Western Michigan went from 76% to 53% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Western Michigan an 88% chance, and the closing betting line (Western Michigan was a 8.5-point favorite) put it at 75%.
Favored the whole way: Western Michigan never fell below 53%.
Rice never had better than a 47% chance.
Western Michigan 28-21 Rice
Western Michigan wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Rice 21-28 Western MichiganRice lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 9:15Byars 1-yd TD run, ties it 14-14Western Michigan 76% → 53% (−23)
- 2Q4 14:19Buckley 1-yd TD run, Western Michigan goes ahead 21-14Western Michigan 67% → 85% (+18)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 9:15Byars 1-yd TD run, ties it 14-14Rice 24% → 47% (+23)
- 2Q4 14:19Buckley 1-yd TD run, Western Michigan goes ahead 21-14Rice 33% → 15% (−18)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Western Michigan -8.5), at 65% for Western Michigan (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Western Michigan scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Rice on 3 of its 10.
Western Michigan’s drives are teal, Rice’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Rice’s side
Rice’s best moment: Byars 1-yd TD run, ties it 14-14 (Q3 9:15). It lifted Rice’s win chance by 23 points.
What it cost
Western Michigan’s chance to make the playoff fell from 4% to 0%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Western Michigan 28, Rice 21
Rice covered +8.5 by 1.5. The total, 49, went over 43.5.
| Team totals | Western Michigan | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 333 | 330 |
| Passing | 14 of 21, 116 yds | 11 of 18, 121 yds |
| Rushing | 42 for 217 yds | 44 for 209 yds |
| First downs | 17 | 20 |
| Third down | 7 of 14 | 1 of 10 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Penalties | 4 for 45 yds | 5 for 60 yds |
| Time of possession | 32:53 | 27:07 |
Western Michigan leaders
- Passing Broc Lowry 14 of 20, 116 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Jalen Buckley 13 for 117 yds, 1 TD; Ofa Mataele 11 for 62 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Aveion Chenault 3 for 62 yds, 1 TD; Baylin Brooks 5 for 31 yds
Rice leaders
- Passing Jacurri Brown 11 of 18, 121 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Jacurri Brown 23 for 128 yds, 1 TD; DAndre Hardeman Jr. 11 for 43 yds
- Receiving Barry Jackson Jr. 4 for 47 yds, 1 TD; Payton Matthews 1 for 25 yds
No rain through the game
90° at kickoff · no rain recorded
September game-day temperatures at Rice Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Houston Dunn airport, 0.9 miles away, and Houston/will Hobby airport, 9.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Western Michigan · 1-1
Rated 24th in our preseason ratings, 22nd now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last two games
Rice · 1-1
Rated 181st in our preseason ratings, 147th now, up 34 spots.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Rice
- Wk 1Wvs Houston Christian31-3
- Wk 2Lat Notre Dame0-52
Western Michigan
- Wk 1Lat Michigan12-13
- Wk 2Wvs Monmouth49-14
Power rating by week
Western Michigan is rated 12.3 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Rice’s explosive plays against Western Michigan, 58 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Rice’s explosive plays against Western Michigan’s defense
Rice offense, 27th percentile · Western Michigan defense, 85th
Rice’s passing EPA against Western Michigan’s defense
Rice offense, 1st percentile · Western Michigan defense, 55th
Rice’s EPA/play against Western Michigan’s defense
Rice offense, 9th percentile · Western Michigan defense, 48th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Rice leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2008 · Rice won the last meeting
- 2008 · neutral siteRice 38-14
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Rice fans are in a better mood than Western Michigan fans (36th vs 1st among FBS fanbases), even with Western Michigan favored.
- Model · 12%
- Line · 25%
- Rice fans · 36th
- Western Michigan fans · 1st
Western Michigan favored by 8.5 · Total 43.5
How games like this usually go
Western Michigan by 8.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Rice.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: +11.5 → +8.5 · Total: 45.5 → 43.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 90° at kickoff.
Western Michigan at Rice · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Rice Stadium, Houston
- 90°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 74weather score, Rough
- 3rdbest of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the third best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Rice Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 82, against 74 at 6 pm.
- 11 am: 59, Rough
- 11:45 am: 58, Rough
- 1 pm: 57, Rough
- 2:30 pm: 55, Rough
- 3:30 pm: 56, Rough
- 6 pm: 74, Rough (this game)
- 6:30 pm: 78, Mixed
- 7 pm: 82, Mixed
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Rice is worth +3.1 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 30th percentile.
35% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (15-28 home, 10-36 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.3 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,025 miles to get here.