Toledo beats Western Michigan 45-38

Team pages: Western Michigan · Toledo

Western Michigan5-338
Toledo6-245Final
Sat, Oct 24 · Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio · Crowd 23,836CBS Sports Network

Toledo beat Western Michigan 45-38.

We had Toledo favored. It won.

Next: Western Michigan vs Bowling Green, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET · Western Michigan favored by 13.5

Next: Toledo at Sacramento State, Wed Nov 4

How it swung

The turning point: Miller 11-yd TD run, Toledo goes ahead 45-38 (Q4, 4:23). Toledo went from 68% to 88% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Toledo a 55% chance, and the closing betting line (Toledo was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.

Favored the whole way: Toledo never fell below 52%.

Western Michigan never had better than a 47% chance.

FinalToledo 45-38 Western MichiganToledo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q494% at halfToledoWon45-3812−16+20Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q494% at halfToledoWon45-3812Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q46% at halfToledoLost38-4512+16−20Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q46% at halfToledoLost38-4512Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 3:144th and 6Lowry 41-yd TD pass to Brooks, cuts it to 38-35Toledo 89% → 73% (−16)
  2. 2Q4 4:23Miller 11-yd TD run, Toledo goes ahead 45-38Toledo 68% → 88% (+20)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 3:144th and 6Lowry 41-yd TD pass to Brooks, cuts it to 38-35Western Michigan 11% → 27% (+16)
  2. 2Q4 4:23Miller 11-yd TD run, Toledo goes ahead 45-38Western Michigan 32% → 12% (−20)
Toledo’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Toledo -2.5), at 67% for Toledo (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Toledo’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 13:32Richter intercepted by Moore at the WMU37Q1, 13:32 · Toledo 0, Western Michigan 0▼13%Toledo’s chance to win, 72% to 59%▼13%Toledo’s chance to win, 72% to 59%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  2. Q1, 13:32Lowry sacked for a 8-yd lossfumblesQ1, 13:32 · Toledo 0, Western Michigan 0▲15%Toledo’s chance to win, 59% to 74%▲15%Toledo’s chance to win, 59% to 74%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  3. Q1, 11:03Richter 4-yd TD runToledo goes ahead 7-0Q1, 11:03 · Toledo 7, Western Michigan 0▲6%Toledo’s chance to win, 73% to 79%▲6%Toledo’s chance to win, 73% to 79%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  4. Q1, 4:00Richter 6-yd pass to CrosbyfumbledQ1, 4:00 · Toledo 14, Western Michigan 0▼4%Toledo’s chance to win, 93% to 89%▼4%Toledo’s chance to win, 93% to 89%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  5. Q1, 3:07Lowry intercepted by Thompson at the WMU42Q1, 3:07 · Toledo 14, Western Michigan 0▲3%Toledo’s chance to win, 90% to 93%▲3%Toledo’s chance to win, 90% to 93%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  6. Q1, 0:15Richter sacked for a 11-yd lossfumblesQ1, 0:15 · Toledo 14, Western Michigan 014-0score after the play14-0score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  7. Q2, 10:04Lowry 13-yd TD pass to Chenaultcuts it to 17-7Q2, 10:04 · Toledo 17, Western Michigan 7▼4%Toledo’s chance to win, 92% to 88%▼4%Toledo’s chance to win, 92% to 88%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  8. Q2, 7:40Richter 7-yd TD pass to BarnettToledo leads 24-7Q2, 7:40 · Toledo 24, Western Michigan 7▲8%Toledo’s chance to win, 88% to 96%▲8%Toledo’s chance to win, 88% to 96%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  9. Q2, 1:56Buckley 3-yd TD runcuts it to 24-14Q2, 1:56 · Toledo 24, Western Michigan 14▼6%Toledo’s chance to win, 94% to 88%▼6%Toledo’s chance to win, 94% to 88%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  10. Q2, 0:49Richter sacked for a 12-yd lossQ2, 0:49 · Toledo 24, Western Michigan 14▼2%Toledo’s chance to win, 90% to 88%▼2%Toledo’s chance to win, 90% to 88%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  11. Q2, 0:10Richter 17-yd TD pass to DabbsToledo leads 31-14Q2, 0:10 · Toledo 31, Western Michigan 14▲8%Toledo’s chance to win, 87% to 95%▲8%Toledo’s chance to win, 87% to 95%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  12. Q2, 0:05Lowry sacked for a 6-yd lossfumblesQ2, 0:05 · Toledo 31, Western Michigan 1431-14score after the play31-14score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  13. Q3, 5:48Richter 5-yd TD pass to DabbsToledo leads 38-28Q3, 5:48 · Toledo 38, Western Michigan 28▲12%Toledo’s chance to win, 78% to 90%▲12%Toledo’s chance to win, 78% to 90%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  14. Q3, 3:14Lowry 41-yd TD pass to Brookscuts it to 38-35Q3, 3:14 · Toledo 38, Western Michigan 35▼16%Toledo’s chance to win, 89% to 73%▼16%Toledo’s chance to win, 89% to 73%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  15. Q4, 9:08Richter sacked for a 6-yd lossQ4, 9:08 · Toledo 38, Western Michigan 38▼7%Toledo’s chance to win, 60% to 53%▼7%Toledo’s chance to win, 60% to 53%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  16. Q4, 4:23Miller 11-yd TD runToledo goes ahead 45-38Q4, 4:23 · Toledo 45, Western Michigan 38▲20%Toledo’s chance to win, 68% to 88%▲20%Toledo’s chance to win, 68% to 88%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  17. Q4, 1:30Lowry intercepted by Petite at the WMU48returned 10 yardsQ4, 1:30 · Toledo 45, Western Michigan 38▲9%Toledo’s chance to win, 89% to 98%▲9%Toledo’s chance to win, 89% to 98%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football

Every drive

Toledo scored on 8 of its 15 drives; Western Michigan on 5 of its 13.

Toledo’s drives are teal, Western Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Toledo: Interception, from 75 yards out to 43InterceptionWestern Michigan: Fumble, from 60 yards out to 68FumbleToledo: Touchdown, from 32 yards out to 0TouchdownWestern Michigan: Punt, from 63 yards out to 59PuntToledo: Touchdown, from 92 yards out to 0TouchdownWestern Michigan: Punt, from 79 yards out to 77PuntToledo: Fumble, from 46 yards out to 35FumbleWestern Michigan: Interception, from 65 yards out to 61InterceptionToledo: Field goal, from 37 yards out to 5Field goalQ2Western Michigan: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWestern Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 83PuntToledo: Punt, from 61 yards out to 55PuntWestern Michigan: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownWestern Michigan: End of half, from 75 yards out to 70End of halfQ3Toledo: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: Punt, from 83 yards out to 63PuntWestern Michigan: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWestern Michigan: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 33DownsQ4Western Michigan: Field goal, from 67 yards out to 6Field goalToledo: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWestern Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntToledo: Punt, from 80 yards out to 62PuntWestern Michigan: Interception, from 77 yards out to 65InterceptionToledo: End of game, from 38 yards out to 28End of game

From Western Michigan’s side

Western Michigan’s best moment: Lowry 41-yd TD pass to Brooks, cuts it to 38-35 (Q3 3:14). It lifted Western Michigan’s win chance by 16 points.

What it cost

Western Michigan’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Western Michigan · lost1% → ▼0%
Toledo · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

Western Michigan · lost44% → ▼37%44%▼ 37%
Toledo · won15% → ▲22%15%▲ 22%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Western Michigan plays vs Bowling Green on Sat Oct 31 with a 0% chance to make the playoff. Toledo plays at Sacramento State on Wed Nov 4 with a 22% chance to win the conference.

Box score

Toledo 45, Western Michigan 38

Toledo covered −2.5 by 4.5. The total, 83, went over 48.5.

Western MichiganToledoTotal yardsWestern Michigan 351Toledo 595351595Passing yardsWestern Michigan 207Toledo 391207391Rushing yardsWestern Michigan 144Toledo 204144204First downsWestern Michigan 18Toledo 321832TurnoversWestern Michigan 3Toledo 232Time of possessionWestern Michigan 26:40Toledo 33:2026:4033:20
Team totalsWestern MichiganToledo
Total yards351595
Passing12 of 29, 207 yds29 of 41, 391 yds
Rushing33 for 144 yds47 for 204 yds
First downs1832
Third down3 of 125 of 10
Fourth down3 of 30 of 1
Turnovers32
Penalties7 for 52 yds6 for 60 yds
Time of possession26:4033:20

Western Michigan leaders

  • Passing Broc Lowry 12 of 29, 207 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Jalen Buckley 18 for 92 yds, 1 TD; Ofa Mataele 4 for 34 yds
  • Receiving Aveion Chenault 6 for 105 yds, 1 TD; Baylin Brooks 3 for 57 yds, 1 TD

Toledo leaders

  • Passing John Alan Richter 29 of 41, 391 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing CJ Miller 33 for 183 yds, 1 TD; Autavius Ison 7 for 27 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Adjatay Dabbs 8 for 124 yds, 2 TD; Bryson Hammer 7 for 107 yds

No rain through the game

57° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 54°, with about 7 in 10 games between 45° and 68°.

October game-day temperatures at Glass Bowl

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Toledo favoredWestern Michigan favored100%Win chanceToledoRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Toledo favoredWestern Michigan favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 4:23 left3:14 p.m.
Western Michigan 38, Toledo 45 · Toledo 88% to win
no rain · 64°
Miller 11-yd TD run, Toledo goes ahead 45-38

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Lambertville airport, 5.8 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Western Michigan · 5-2

Rated 24th in our preseason ratings, 43rd now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 21-14 @ Central Michigan No. 123 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

Western Michigan won 21-14 at Central Michigan. Chance to win started at 64%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

W 38-7 vs Kent State No. 143 of 668 teams

won by 31 as a 13.5-point favorite

Western Michigan won 38-7 vs Kent State. Chance to win started at 87%, low 85%, high better than 99%.

W 20-17 @ Buffalo No. 160 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite

Western Michigan won 20-17 at Buffalo. Chance to win started at 76%, low 32%, high 91%.

L 7-32 vs Boise StateTop 25 No. 22 of 668 teams

lost by 25 as an 8.5-point underdog

Western Michigan lost 7-32 vs Boise State. Chance to win started at 34%, low under 1%, high 34%.

W 28-21 @ Rice No. 147 of 668 teams

won by 7 as an 8.5-point favorite

Western Michigan won 28-21 at Rice. Chance to win started at 65%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

W 49-14 vs Monmouth No. 158 of 668 teams

won by 35 as a 29.5-point favorite

Western Michigan won 49-14 vs Monmouth. Chance to win started at 98%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

L 12-13 @ MichiganTop 25 No. 18 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 27.5-point underdog

Western Michigan lost 12-13 at Michigan. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 90%.

Last three games

Toledo · 5-2

Rated 48th in our preseason ratings, 47th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 34-14 @ Eastern Michigan No. 143 of 668 teams

won by 20 as a 7.5-point favorite

Toledo won 34-14 at Eastern Michigan. Chance to win started at 62%, low 52%, high better than 99%.

L 8-23 vs Buffalo No. 134 of 668 teams

lost by 15 as an 18.5-point favorite

Toledo lost 8-23 vs Buffalo. Chance to win started at 92%, low under 1%, high 92%.

W 39-24 @ Ball State No. 164 of 668 teams

won by 15 as a 20.5-point favorite

Toledo won 39-24 at Ball State. Chance to win started at 87%, low 56%, high better than 99%.

W 41-16 vs San Diego State No. 68 of 668 teams

won by 25 as a 2.5-point favorite

Toledo won 41-16 vs San Diego State. Chance to win started at 63%, low 51%, high better than 99%.

W 49-48 vs Temple No. 95 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 4.5-point favorite

Toledo won 49-48 vs Temple. Chance to win started at 70%, low under 1%, high better than 99%.

W 63-10 vs Central Connecticut No. 191 of 668 teams

won by 53 as a 36.5-point favorite

Toledo won 63-10 vs Central Connecticut. Chance to win started at 98%, low 91%, high better than 99%.

L 20-30 @ Michigan State No. 157 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 10-point underdog

Toledo lost 20-30 at Michigan State. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 27%.

Week by week

Toledo

Wk 3: W 49-48 vs Temple▲1TempleWk 4: W 41-16 vs San Diego State▲25S. Diego…Wk 5: W 39-24 at Ball State▲15Ball St.Wk 6: L 8-23 vs Buffalo▼15BuffaloWk 7: W 34-14 at Eastern Michigan▲20E. Michi…
  • Wk 3Wvs Temple49-48
  • Wk 4Wvs San Diego State41-16
  • Wk 5Wat Ball State39-24
  • Wk 6Lvs Buffalo8-23
  • Wk 7Wat Eastern Michigan34-14

Western Michigan

Wk 3: W 28-21 at Rice▲7RiceWk 4: L 7-32 vs Boise State▼25Boise St.Wk 5: W 20-17 at Buffalo▲3BuffaloWk 6: W 38-7 vs Kent State▲31Kent St.Wk 7: W 21-14 at Central Michigan▲7C. Michi…
  • Wk 3Wat Rice28-21
  • Wk 4Lvs Boise State7-32
  • Wk 5Wat Buffalo20-17
  • Wk 6Wvs Kent State38-7
  • Wk 7Wat Central Michigan21-14

Power rating by week

Western Michigan is rated 0.6 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

952Wk 0Wk 4Wk 7ToledoWestern Michigan

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Western Michigan’s success rate against Toledo, 54 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Western Michigan’s success rate against Toledo’s defense

    54 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Western Michigan offense, 43rd percentile · Toledo defense, 97th

  2. Toledo’s passing EPA against Western Michigan’s defense

    41 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Toledo offense, 87th percentile · Western Michigan defense, 46th

  3. Western Michigan’s explosive plays against Toledo’s defense

    22 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Western Michigan offense, 29th percentile · Toledo defense, 7th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Western MichiganToledo
EPA/play, offense
Western Michigan · 47Toledo · 79
EPA/play, defense
Western Michigan · 39Toledo · 84
Success rate, offense
Western Michigan · 43Toledo · 55
Success rate, defense
Western Michigan ·…Toledo · 97
Explosive-play rate, offense
Western Michigan · 29Toledo · 97
Explosive-play rate, defense
Western Michigan…Toledo · 7
Rush EPA, offense
Western Michigan · 69Toledo · 49
Rush EPA, defense
Western Michigan · 54Toledo · 92
Pass EPA, offense
Western Michigan · 29Toledo · 87
Pass EPA, defense
Western Michigan · 46Toledo · 54

The series

Toledo leads the series 39-24

63 meetings since 1962 · Western Michigan won the last meeting

Toledo wonWestern Michigan won1962: Western Michigan by 211963: Western Michigan by 111964: Toledo by 81965: Western Michigan by 31966: Western Michigan by 11967: Toledo by 261968: Toledo by 241969: Toledo by 251970: Toledo by 201971: Toledo by 111972: Toledo by 71973: Western Michigan by 21974: Toledo by 71975: Toledo by 181976: Western Michigan by 131977: Western Michigan by 211978: Western Michigan by 101979: Toledo by 171980: Western Michigan by 101981: Toledo by 141982: Western Michigan by 71983: Toledo by 41984: Toledo by 41985: Western Michigan by 51986: Toledo by 211987: Western Michigan by 71988: Western Michigan by 221989: Toledo by 11990: Toledo by 281991: Toledo by 101992: Toledo by 91993: Western Michigan by 131994: Toledo by 31995: Toledo by 101996: Toledo by 31997: Toledo by 101998: Toledo by 281999: Toledo by 242000: Western Michigan by 72001: Toledo by 62002: Toledo by 212003: Toledo by 172004: Toledo by 262005: Toledo by 332006: Western Michigan by 212007: Western Michigan by 142008: Western Michigan by 102009: Western Michigan by 322010: Toledo by 132011: Toledo by 32012: Toledo by 202013: Toledo by 272014: Toledo by 12015: Western Michigan by 52016: Western Michigan by 202017: Toledo by 272018: Toledo by 272019: Toledo by 72020: Western Michigan by 32021: Toledo by 192022: Western Michigan by 62023: Toledo by 182025: Western Michigan by 119622025
  • 2025Western Michigan 14-13Toledo lost 13-14 at Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 72%, low 8%, high 97%.
  • 2023Toledo 49-31Toledo won 49-31 vs Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 89%, low 34%, high better than 99%.
  • 2022Western Michigan 20-14Toledo lost 14-20 at Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 74%, low 3%, high 91%.
  • 2021Toledo 34-15Toledo won 34-15 vs Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 50%, low 21%, high better than 99%.
  • 2020Western Michigan 41-38Toledo lost 38-41 at Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 46%, low under 1%, high 96%.

Each line is Toledo’s chance to win through that meeting. Toledo is 2-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Toledo fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (96th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 55% · Line 58%Toledo fans · 96thWestern Michigan fans · 65thWestern MichiganToledo

Toledo favored by 2.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Toledo by 2.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Toledo.

opened −1.5now −2.5

The total rose 4 points.

opened 44.5now 48.5

Spread: −1.5 → −2.5 · Total: 44.5 → 48.5

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Toledo is worth +5.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 76th percentile.

74% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (32-11 home, 23-24 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.0 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 111 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Mid-American standings