No. 14 Penn State routs Buffalo 55-13
Team pages: Buffalo · Penn State
No. 14 Penn State routed Buffalo 55-13. Share this game
We had Penn State favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
Alright, let's just toss a 70 yard Koby Howard TD and I'll feel better.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Penn State a 94% chance, and the closing betting line (Penn State was a 39.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.
Penn State led by 14 after the first quarter and by 28 at the half.
Penn State 55-13 Buffalo
Penn State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Buffalo 13-55 Penn StateBuffalo lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 5:53Penn State fans decry a phantom holding call on Peoples' run
terrible call to take away the 1st down. phantom call.
r/CFB game threadWhat kind of hold call was that!? Dude just fell over lol
r/CFB game thread - Q1 1:39Penn State fans declare Quentin Martin the starting running back after his 61-yard rush
Maybe Martin is it. Either way Hansen is not it.
r/CFB game threadI love how great this team is at blocking downfield and how selfless all the WR’s and others are. And again. Free Quentin Martin Jr
r/CFB game thread - Q2 8:32Penn State fans worry about Rappleyea's injury after he goes down
If we lose rappleyea for the season that will be an enormous loss
r/CFB game thread - Q2 5:17Penn State fans criticize sloppy play and questionable calls after Becht fumbles
Give em hell coach. Too many sloppy plays.
r/CFB game threadHow many penalties are we gonna get called for because a Buffalo player slips?
r/CFB game thread - Q2 5:17Penn State fans celebrate Koby Howard's return and mock Liam Clifford's blockingQuoted at the top of the page.
But at least Liam Clifford got his snaps last season!
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Penn State -39.5), at 99% for Penn State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Penn State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 8:00Peoples 16-yd TD runPenn State leads 10-0Q1, 8:00 · Penn State 10, Buffalo 010-0score after the play10-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q1, 6:19Becht 3-yd TD pass to RappleyeaPenn State leads 17-0Q1, 6:19 · Penn State 17, Buffalo 017-0score after the play17-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 2:31Becht 70-yd TD pass to HowardPenn State leads 34-3Q2, 2:31 · Penn State 34, Buffalo 334-3score after the play34-3score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q3, 11:29Hansen 12-yd TD runPenn State leads 41-6Q3, 11:29 · Penn State 41, Buffalo 641-6score after the play41-6score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q3, 8:14Peoples 11-yd TD runPenn State leads 48-6Q3, 8:14 · Penn State 48, Buffalo 648-6score after the play48-6score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q4, 12:31Wallace 59-yd TD runPenn State leads 55-6Q4, 12:31 · Penn State 55, Buffalo 655-6score after the play55-6score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q4, 5:01McNeil 1-yd TD runcuts it to 55-13Q4, 5:01 · Penn State 55, Buffalo 1355-13score after the play55-13score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
Every drive
Penn State scored on 9 of its 15 drives; Buffalo on 3 of its 15.
Penn State’s drives are teal, Buffalo’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“How was that guy not playing before....... Oh yeah. I remember, he needed to BLOCK better.”
When fans got loud
Busy
Fans peaked in the second quarter.
The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
Penn State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 6% to 11%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Penn State 55, Buffalo 13
Penn State covered −39.5 by 2.5. The total, 68, went over 48.5.
| Team totals | Buffalo | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 173 | 573 |
| Passing | 10 of 25, 60 yds | 15 of 26, 269 yds |
| Rushing | 38 for 113 yds | 41 for 304 yds |
| First downs | 13 | 25 |
| Third down | 1 of 14 | 2 of 10 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | 3 for 30 yds | 8 for 96 yds |
| Time of possession | 28:37 | 31:23 |
Buffalo leaders
- Passing Jason Wright 10 of 25, 60 yds
- Rushing James McNeil Jr. 20 for 80 yds, 1 TD; Nino Hill 6 for 20 yds
- Receiving Chance Morrow 2 for 31 yds; Dwayne Early Jr. 1 for 10 yds
Penn State leaders
- Passing Rocco Becht 11 of 19, 212 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Quinton Martin Jr. 10 for 100 yds; Cam Wallace 8 for 77 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Koby Howard 3 for 115 yds, 1 TD; Chase Sowell 1 for 35 yds
No rain through the game
64° at kickoff · no rain recorded
September game-day temperatures at Beaver Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at State College airport, 2.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Buffalo · 1-1
Rated 134th in our preseason ratings, 145th now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Penn State
- Wk 1Wvs Marshall45-0
- Wk 2Wat Temple27-9
Buffalo
- Wk 1Wvs UAlbany21-17
- Wk 2Lat Florida International20-33
Power rating by week
Penn State is rated 10.4 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Buffalo’s passing EPA against Penn State, 83 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Buffalo’s passing EPA against Penn State’s defense
Buffalo offense, 10th percentile · Penn State defense, 93rd
Buffalo’s success rate against Penn State’s defense
Buffalo offense, 5th percentile · Penn State defense, 61st
Buffalo’s explosive plays against Penn State’s defense
Buffalo offense, 33rd percentile · Penn State defense, 55th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Penn State leads the series 3-1
4 meetings since 1900 · Penn State has won the last 3
- 2019Penn State 45-13
- 2015Penn State 27-14
- 2007Penn State 45-24
- 1900Buffalo 10-0
Each line is Penn State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Buffalo fans are in a better mood than Penn State fans (58th vs 45th among FBS fanbases), even with Penn State favored.
Penn State favored by 39.5 · Total 48.5
How games like this usually go
Penn State by 39.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
Weather at kickoff
Mild and dry. Feels like 67° at kickoff.
Buffalo at Penn State · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Beaver Stadium, University Park
- 67°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed.
- noon: 100, Ideal (this game)
- 1 pm: 100, Ideal
- 2 pm: 100, Ideal
- 3:30 pm: 100, Ideal
- 4 pm: 100, Ideal
- 6 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7:30 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7:45 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Penn State is worth +3.9 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 47th percentile.
73% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (41-15 home, 26-15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.7 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 158 miles to get here.