2Q4 1:13Becht 22-yd pass to SowellWisconsin 55% → 33% (−22)
3Q4 1:13Becht sacked for a 4-yd lossWisconsin 33% → 63% (+30)
4Q4 0:054th and 14Becht incomplete to Brahmer, turnover on downsWisconsin 67% → 100% (+33)
The four plays that swung it
1Q4 1:13Joseph 72-yd TD pass to Harris, Wisconsin goes ahead 24-20Penn State 83% → 39% (−44)
2Q4 1:13Becht 22-yd pass to SowellPenn State 45% → 67% (+22)
3Q4 1:13Becht sacked for a 4-yd lossPenn State 67% → 37% (−30)
4Q4 0:054th and 14Becht incomplete to Brahmer, turnover on downsPenn State 33% → 0% (−33)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 12:50Penn State's Zayas intercepts Joseph for a touchdown, making it 10-0Was wondering when the pick six would happenr/CFB game thread
Q2 8:47Wisconsin fans mock Colton Joseph after punt ends driveColton Joseph does not belong in FBS at all... and shame on the coaching staff for recruiting himr/CFB game thread
Q4 8:09Penn State fans rage at Becht's offensive struggles after Rojas intercepts JosephRocco Becht has to be point shavingr/CFB game threadRocco Becht sucks. So does this OCr/CFB game thread
Q4 7:02Wisconsin fans celebrate Hilton Jr touchdown as Penn State fans panic over coachingIf we blow this, it’s on the staff 100%. This is some of the worst coaching I’ve seen.r/CFB game threadReally not trying to be that guy but not impressed with Matt Campbell's gameday coaching through 4 games. Except the opener. Up 17-0 from the D setting up 2 TDs and they threw…r/CFB game thread
Q4 3:31Penn State fans panic as Becht's offense stalls and Wisconsin holds onSo Koby Howard was our entire offense then?r/CFB game threadThis offense is doing its best to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Seen this show beforer/CFB game thread
Q4 2:28Wisconsin scores late touchdown as Penn State fans blame Franklin and CampbellWent 7-6 last year, fired everyone, brought in a bunch of Iowa State transfers and beat Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo… apparently this made us the 13th best team in the country…r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Wisconsin’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Penn State -9.5), at 21% for Wisconsin (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Penn State or Wisconsin flair (1,366 and 624); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Wisconsin’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20 · Penn State 39% to win
no rain · 63°
Joseph 72-yd TD pass to Harris, Wisconsin goes ahead 24-20
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at State College airport, 2.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Wisconsin · 2-1
Rated 86th in our preseason ratings, 81st now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Penn State is rated 5.9 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Penn State’s explosive plays against Wisconsin, 67 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Penn State’s explosive plays against Wisconsin’s defense
Penn State offense, 32nd percentile · Wisconsin defense, 99th
Wisconsin’s passing EPA against Penn State’s defense
Wisconsin offense, 27th percentile · Penn State defense, 93rd
Penn State’s EPA/play against Wisconsin’s defense
Penn State offense, 41st percentile · Wisconsin defense, 90th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
WisconsinPenn State
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Penn State leads the series 12-9
21 meetings since 1953 · Penn State has won the last 6
2024Penn State 28-13
2021Penn State 16-10
2018Penn State 22-10
2016 · neutral sitePenn State 38-31
2013Penn State 31-24
Each line is Penn State’s chance to win through that meeting. Penn State is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Penn State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (16th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Penn State favored by 9.5 · Total 43.5
How games like this usually go
Penn State by 9.5, on the usual path until 1:13 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Wisconsin.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −11.5 → −9.5 · Total: 42.5 → 43.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Mild and dry. Feels like 64° at kickoff.
Wisconsin at Penn State · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Beaver Stadium, University Park
64°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
98weather score, Comfortable
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Beaver Stadium that day, a noon, 12:45 pm, 6 pm or 7 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 98 at 5 pm.
Penn State is worth +3.9 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 47th percentile.
73% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (41-15 home, 26-15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.7 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Penn State · Q2 12:50
Wisconsin 24-20 Penn State