Next game: at Ball State
Buffalo’s best edge on Ball State is red zone
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Buffalo offense against Ball State defense
Ball State offense against Buffalo defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.10 EPA/play | 7 | 8 | 114 / 231 | 49.4 | 1345 | 5.8 | 9 | 6 | 105.9 | 20 | 32.1 | 4.7 | 6.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — 231 pass attempts and 65 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Wright operates within the system without forcing anything. Luster is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.0 bottom 6th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like the one real worry is the accuracy — bottom 1% of FBS quarterbacks in completion rate. | ||||||||||||||
| -0.03 EPA/play | 16 | 2 | 35 / 61 | 57.4 | 253 | 4.1 | 3 | 0 | 108.4 | 17 | 22.2 | 4.7 | 3.2 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.03 EPA/play | 4 | 9 | 165 | 901 #12 FBS | 5.5 | 5 | 87 | 14.0 | 9.8 | |
Yards by week → Balanced back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 165 carries and 6 catches in 9 games, more touches a game than nearly every FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Burch does a little of everything without one standout trait. Bonds is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry5.6 60th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception2.2 bottom 3th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Messiah Burch's full player page | ||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.25 EPA/play | — | 7 | 63 | 202 | 3.2 | 2 | 17 | 21.3 | 6.6 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 63 carries in 7 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Hill just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Bonds is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Weight217 lb 80th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry3.1 bottom 3th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Nino Hill's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.44 EPA/play | 25 | 3 | 35 | 121 | 3.5 | 0 | 17 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| 24 | 4 | 27 | 120 | 4.4 | 1 | 17 | — | — | ||
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.43 EPA/play | 6 | 9 | 53 | 682 #23 FBS | 12.9 | 8 #9 FBS | 57 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball target· Boom-or-bustWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Impact starter — 53 catches in 9 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Morrow wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Smith is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt TD rate15.1% 82th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume53 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chance Morrow's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.16 EPA/play | 11 | 7 | 19 | 272 | 14.3 | 0 | 37 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Jr. moves the chains on third down. Smith is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception14.9 66th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dwayne Early Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.04 EPA/play | 5 | 7 | 22 | 195 | 8.9 | 3 | 26 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 22 catches in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. This week's matchup — TE Walker shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Hoover is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception7.6 bottom 18th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.0 bottom 10th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Clint Walker's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.31 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 21 | 188 | 9.0 | 0 | 20 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Andrews moves the chains on third down. Smith is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception7.5 bottom 5th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaylen Andrews's full player page | ||||||||
| -0.11 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 10 | 131 | 13.1 | 1 | 59 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.28 EPA/play | 87 | 3 | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 0 | 28 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.17 EPA/play | 8 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 | 10 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 97 | 9 | 24 | 11 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 24 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.8% 63th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Christopher Climes's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 8 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 55th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Cornell Evans's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 88 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Rex Stinchcomb's full player page | |||||||
| 95 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 1 | 9 | 75 | 43 | 32 | 3.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Impact starter — 75 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 81th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume75 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Saveon Brown's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 44 | 7 | 34 | 12 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.8% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.9% bottom 19th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Zach Bergmann's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 2 | 7 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Stevie Bracey's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 33 | 7 | 27 | 9 | 18 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jordan Owens's full player page | |||||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 17 | 8 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 3.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Pressure merchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 22 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 22 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.4 99th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Logan Goodwin's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 11 | 8 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 21 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Will Clark's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 15 | 8 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3.5 | 2 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 21 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.6% 81th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Sedrick Vessah's full player page | |||||||||
| 21 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 30 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 52 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 6 | 9 | 57 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 57 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume57 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Miles Greer's full player page | |||||||
| Rover | 4 | 8 | 50 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Starter — 50 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.0% 51th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ronnell Davis's full player page | |||||||
| Rover | 7 | 9 | 48 | 4 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Starter — 48 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.3% 53th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View John Keough's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 5 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. 30 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume30 84th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mikey Crawford's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | — | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.7% bottom 32th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kobi Blackwell's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 9 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Press cornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Keontez Bradley's full player page | |||||||
| 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 31 | 9 | 15/19 | 78.9 | 20/21 | 65 | 51 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 90 | 9 | 50 | 2256 | 45.1 | 72 | 18 | 6 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.45 EPA/play | 1 | 6 | 10 | 242 | 24.2 | 0 | 71 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 6 | 9 | 10 | 73 | 7.3 | 0 | 18 |
Biggest plays from Buffalo’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Buffalo’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q1, 8:00 · Penn State up 3James Peoples runs 16 yards for a touchdownBuffalo at Penn State, week 3Q1, 8:00 · Penn State 10, Buffalo 010-0score after the play10-0score after the playJ.Peoples rush right for 16 yards gain to the BUF00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 6:19 · Penn State up 10Rocco Becht finds Andrew Rappleyea for a 3-yard touchdownBuffalo at Penn State, week 3Q1, 6:19 · Penn State 17, Buffalo 017-0score after the play17-0score after the playAndrew Rappleyea 3 yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 2:31 · Penn State up 24Rocco Becht finds Koby Howard for a 70-yard touchdownBuffalo at Penn State, week 3Q2, 2:31 · Penn State 34, Buffalo 37070-yard touchdown pass7070-yard touchdown pass70-yard touchdown passKoby Howard 70 yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 11:29 · Penn State up 28Carson Hansen runs 12 yards for a touchdownBuffalo at Penn State, week 3Q3, 11:29 · Penn State 41, Buffalo 641-6score after the play41-6score after the playC.Hansen rush left for 12 yards gain to the BUF00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 8:14 · Penn State up 35James Peoples runs 11 yards for a touchdownBuffalo at Penn State, week 3Q3, 8:14 · Penn State 48, Buffalo 648-6score after the play48-6score after the playJ.Peoples rush left for 11 yards gain to the BUF00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 12:31 · Penn State up 42Cam Wallace runs 59 yards for a touchdownBuffalo at Penn State, week 3Q4, 12:31 · Penn State 55, Buffalo 65959-yard touchdown run5959-yard touchdown run59-yard touchdown runC.Wallace rush left for 59 yards gain to the BUF00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Buffalo lost to Western Michigan after being 89% to win; the closest win was at Miami (OH), down to 1%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Buffalo during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Buffalo
through 9 games
2026 stat leaders · BuffaloSaveon Brown leads Buffalo with 75 tackles through 9 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+17 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Buffalo fields a struggling offense behind a leaky defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Buffalo reads strongest in field position (O) (top 35%) and success rate allowed (top 42%); the crux lives in success rate, where Buffalo sits at the 3rd percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Buffalo is worth +4.0 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 47th percentile of 133 programs
56% at home, 50% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (23-18 home, 24-24 away). Interval ±4.1.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Buffalo has beaten the number by −0.0 more at home than away over 97 games. That is inside the ±6.5 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
UB Stadium seats 30,270 and has averaged 43% full (13,000, 29 games reported). Visitors cover a median 292 miles to get here since 2018 — 32nd-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 19% of the 2026 roster (20 of 107 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 50 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Deep threatNik McMillan is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Messiah Burch and Nino Hill split the carries (164/224 vs 60/224) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Messiah Burch owns the receiving work.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Chance Morrow (WR) and Clint Walker (TE) split the targets (94/129 vs 35/129) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Buffalo actually scores
8th percentile quality, 88th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Buffalo’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 51st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 36th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Buffalo hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
9th percentile success on standard downs, 11th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Buffalo by half
1st-half offense ranks 6th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 39th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Buffalo’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.05; 28th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.15 raw vs. 0.00 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Buffalo’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (57.6% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 246-play sample) — most conservative, 1 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Buffalo’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.0% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 171-play sample) — mid-pack, 57 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
36% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~52% league baseline.
4 of 11 own fumbles recovered themselves; 5 of 11 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
8% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~18% league average, and due for more.
3 interceptions of 38 disrupted passes (35 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
46 penalties committed, 75 drawn on opponents — netting a 203-yard field-position edge.
435 penalty yards committed vs. 638 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Buffalo
Most similar programs · BuffaloReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
UB Stadium, Amherst, NY
Usual during the game around Nov 18: 44°, between 33° and 61° in about 7 in 10 games (24 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 57°, and 8 in 10 ran between 36° and 80° (54 of 56 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.