Big Ten UCLA

Head coach Bob Chesney · 1st season · 8-0 at UCLA

Record8-05-0 Big Ten · 1st
CFPNo. 8week 10 poll
Playoff34%to make the field
Nextat MinnesotaSat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET · FOX

The rest of the season

Three real tests left: Minnesota 55%, Michigan 65%, No. 18 USC 67%

Win out 21% · expect 2.8 of 4 more wins

UCLA's chance to win each game left, from our model: Minnesota 55%, Illinois 89%, Michigan 65%, USC 67%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Playoff chance went from <1% to 33%, peaking at 42% before a game

<1%10%W15%W9%W21%W34%W38%W42%W33%W

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

Standing1st in the Big Ten · 5-0 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Nico Iamaleava 982 · Rushing Wayne Knight 680 · Receiving Semaj Morgan 415 All player stats

The nationAP #5 · Coaches #5 · CFP #8up 2 from last week · week 10 poll
The model#19 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #17 (+14.4) · FPI #28 · AP #5 is a vote; our rating ranks them #19. Why they differ
The marketUCLA by 5.5Betting line at Minnesota · our model 55% UCLA

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow UCLA:athletics siteXInstagramstudent paperradio

Schedule and results

UCLA · 2026 schedule and results8-0Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 40% · 0 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now. 1 win over a team ranked at kickoff.Our rank entering each game: #62 to #20
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#62#63−2.5✓ +18.5@CaliforniaW 45-24 141UCLA won 45-24 at California. Chance to win started at 47%, low 26%, high better than 99%.1-00-0Pass Iamaleava 184 · Rush Woods 118 · Rec Matthews 88
2Sep 12#59#40−13.5✓ +4.5San Diego StateW 28-10 122UCLA won 28-10 vs San Diego State. Chance to win started at 88%, low 76%, high better than 99%.2-00-0Pass Iamaleava 151 · Rush Knight 97 · Rec Morgan 73
3Sep 19#50#118−13.5✓ +0.5PurdueW 52-38 139UCLA won 52-38 vs Purdue. Chance to win started at 90%, low 68%, high better than 99%.3-01-0Pass Iamaleava 276 · Rush Knight 177 · Rec Morgan 72
4Sep 26#48#61−2.5✓ +48.5@MarylandW 54-3 132UCLA won 54-3 at Maryland. Chance to win started at 48%, low 39%, high better than 99%.4-02-0Pass Iamaleava 209 · Rush Knight 100 · Rec Mizell 83
5Bye week
6Oct 10#34#5+10✓ +12@OregonTop 25 winW 17-15 132UCLA won 17-15 at Oregon. Chance to win started at 27%, low 13%, high better than 99%. Loud5-03-0Pass Iamaleava 162 · Rush Knight 103 · Rec Mizell 62
7Oct 17#21#48−1.5✓ +8.5WisconsinW 17-7 120UCLA won 17-7 vs Wisconsin. Chance to win started at 62%, low 59%, high better than 99%.6-04-0Pass Dieffenbach 264 · Rush Woods 39 · Rec Morgan 84
8Oct 24#19#124−16.5✓ +1.5Michigan StateW 28-10 133UCLA won 28-10 vs Michigan State. Chance to win started at 90%, low 61%, high better than 99%.7-05-0Pass Dieffenbach 198 · Rush Woods 112 · Rec Rowe Jr. 74
9Oct 31#20#146−22.5✓ +4.5NevadaW 27-0 118UCLA won 27-0 vs Nevada. Chance to win started at 96%, low 93%, high better than 99%. Firestorm8-05-0Pass Dieffenbach 178 · Rush Knight 53 · Rec Paul 52
10Nov 7#19#50−5.5@Minnesota12 pm ET · FOX55% to win
11Nov 13#19#72Illinois9 pm ET · FOX89% to win
12Nov 21@Michigantime TBA65% to win
13Nov 28+10.5USCtime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for UCLA, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for UCLA: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31NevadaW 27-0303029:16+0.14341.7%1.06
Oct 24Michigan StateW 28-10443235:58+0.03252.5%0.63
Oct 17WisconsinW 17-7384237:02+0.13340.3%1.15
Oct 10@OregonW 17-15345339:15-0.12135.2%1.09Season-low EPA/play
Sep 26@MarylandW 54-3475231:34+0.07340.6%1.15Best defensive stand
Sep 19PurdueW 52-38645036:10+0.52456.8%1.41Season-high EPA/play
Sep 12San Diego StateW 28-10365134:55+0.10543.3%1.09
Sep 5@CaliforniaW 45-24461125:11+0.42056.6%1.25
Season average (8 games)4281.4+0.16445.9%1.11

UCLA's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Season line10.5 winsover +145
Offense solidRun-heavy, ground-controlMethodical, ball-control

Season expectations

Win total1 bookOver/under 10.5▲1 since Jun 19
CFP championship#41 in field+5,000
Big Ten title#9 in market+450

Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 28Battle for the Victory Bellvs AP #18 USC · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

UCLA has won eight straight.

8-2 over the last 10, and won the last eight.

Streak W8Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 8-2
I’ve said it before, this is the greatest place in the world to play football and it’s the greatest place in the world to coach football
Chesney · On33 days after UCLA's 2026 game against Michigan State

Playoff chance, day by day

33% now · ▼ 9 points in the last week

060%33%High 47%, Nov 1Aug 31Nov 4

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.

Who to root for this week

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.

2 storylines developing

What UCLA’s coaching hire is really about

The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?

Coachingthis cyclenew

Chesney, who previously coached at James Madison, inherits a 3-9 roster and 22% returning production — UCLA's patience is tested as the third coach in five years faces the weight.

What happenedBob Chesney took over as UCLA's head coach, replacing Tim Skipper.
The contextreplaces 6-year head coach Chip Kelly (35-34)

Statusbackground

Power broker conflict2026-09-02new

UCLA's 3-9 losing record contrasts with its legacy of producing elite alumni, highlighting the gap between its storied past and current rebuilding phase under Bob Chesney.

What happenedUCLA donations, revenue fall post-Big Ten move.

Statusdeveloping

How past storylines here turned out

ReplacedUCLA moved on from that hire — a new coaching change began the following season. See who's next →
Died downUCLA's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downUCLA's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.

Range of outcomes · UCLA · 2026

UCLA’s most likely regular season is 11-1. 92% of outcomes land from 10-2 to 12-0.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

9 wins 8%; 10 wins 29%; 11 wins 42%; 12 wins 21%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor10-2No postseason.
Base11-2A bowl game.
Ceiling11-2A bowl game.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

How fans reactedreal posts and moves · tap to open
Following now · UCLA · Developing

UCLA donations, revenue fall post-Big Ten move.

upbeat so far, only a few posts doubt on the left, belief on the right · bigger dot, louder
Believers3 upbeat posts
Drama: simmeringFans: 14% volume · negative overall
Developing2 new this week
3 days agoBig Ten title odds: +850 to +600 (the market’s chance is up 3.8 points)
6 days agoNico Iamaleava out for season
last weekTop 50 QB Josiah Boyd commits to UCLA
last weekWin total (line at 10.5) — no reprice yet on "UCLA QB Nico Lamaleava out for season"
2 weeks agoWin total (line at 10.5) holding steady right after "UCLA QB Nico Lamaleava out for season"
Our read
UCLA's 3-9 losing record contrasts with its legacy of producing elite alumni, highlighting the gap between its storied past and current rebuilding phase under Bob Chesney.
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards loud
🎪The circusTop off-field item: “UCLA football gets a message in the College Football Playoff…”.›

The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.

“UCLA football gets a message in the College Football Playoff rankings”
UCLA Wire · Nov 4 · read ↗
“UCLA coach Bob Chesney sends message to team: ‘8-0 is in the past’”
Los Angeles Daily News · Nov 3 · read ↗
📣Believers3 bullish items making the case that it's working.›

The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“UCLA, USC both land spots in initial College Football Playoff rankings”
Orange County Register · Nov 4 · read ↗
“National Title Winning RB Blasts CFP Rankings After Texas Lands Higher Than UCLA”
Heavy.com · Nov 4 · read ↗
“Texas Tech commit Austin Attalah recently visited UCLA as Bruins push to keep him home”
On3 CFB · Nov 3 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent; the coverage runs one way.›

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet.

💬The boards14% of recent board volume, a large share for one event. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (70%).›

This event was in 1076 of 7474 board posts (14%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.

"Hello r/UCLA! I'm one of the organizers of the Transportation Politics Panel, in which we had Nick Andert, a youtuber who talks about LA Metro & local politics, as well as Professo"
r/ucla ~ fan take
"I don't know if its just me but I am struggling in my first quarter at UCLA. I'm a transfer student and I never had the best time management skills, but ever since I got here my ti"
r/ucla ~ fan take

Board health this week (155 posts): 19% positive · 45% neutral · 36% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.

Following now · UCLA · Coaching

New coverage keeps arriving on Bob Chesney at UCLA.

Bob Chesney took over as UCLA's head coach, replacing Tim Skipper. It is replaces 6-year head coach Chip Kelly (35-34). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. Most of the coverage has bought in, and it is early.

skeptical, with a bull case doubt on the left, belief on the right · bigger dot, louder
Skeptics4 doubtful posts
Believers1 upbeat post
Drama: simmeringFans: 2% volume · negative overall
Developing5 new this week
yesterdayUCLA coach Bob Chesney sends message to team: ‘8-0 is in the past’ · Los Angeles Daily News
yesterdayFootball Media Availability - Coach Chesney · UCLA Bruins
yesterdayUCLA football coach Bob Chesney talks Minnesota, Bruin Tape, offensive line · On3
3 days agoBig Ten title odds: +850 to +600 (the market’s chance is up 3.8 points)
6 days agoNico Iamaleava out for season
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Bob Chesney Head coach
“UCLA football coach Bob Chesney talks Minnesota, Bruin Tape, offensive line” — On3 · 2026-11-03
Tim Skipper Out
Bill Simmons
“Bill Simmons Makes Declaration: “UCLA is Going to Extend Bob Chesney”” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-11-02
Our read
Chesney, who previously coached at James Madison, inherits a 3-9 roster and 22% returning production — UCLA's patience is tested as the third coach in five years faces the weight.
Source of record: Bob Chesney took over as UCLA's head coach, replacing Tim Skipper — replaces 6-year head coach Chip Kelly (35-34).
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards quietThe Dominoes active
🎪The circusTop off-field item: “UCLA coach Bob Chesney sends message to team: ‘8-0 is in the…”.›

The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.

“UCLA coach Bob Chesney sends message to team: ‘8-0 is in the past’”
Los Angeles Daily News · Nov 3 · read ↗
📣Believers1 bullish/hire items making the case that it's working.›

The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.

“Everything Bob Chesney said Monday after UCLA's 27-0 win over Nevada”
247Sports · Nov 2 · read ↗
“Coach Chesney Interview on Big Day with Peter Schrager (Nov. 2, 2026)”
UCLA Bruins · Nov 3 · read ↗
“Football Media Availability - Coach Chesney”
UCLA Bruins · Nov 3 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsLeading counter: “Undefeated UCLA's Biggest Unresolved Concern Will Eventually…”.›

The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

“Undefeated UCLA's Biggest Unresolved Concern Will Eventually Force Bob Chesney to Leave for a Blue Blood Program: Report”
Yahoo Sports · Nov 2 · read ↗
“UCLA’s Lacking Support Sparks Concerns About Bob Chesney’s Future”
BroBible · Nov 2 · read ↗
💬The boards2% of recent board volume, less than the headlines suggest. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (70%).›

This event was in 146 of 7474 board posts (2%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.

"Exactly. The contract needed to outbid UCLA would need to be in the Cignetti/Smart/Day ballpark. Is any school really going to make Bob Chesney one of the 3 highest paid coaches in"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Exactly; he was involved with bringing Chesney to UCLA. Maybe he leaves in the end but he’s not just guessing here"
r/CFB ~ fan take

Board health this week (155 posts): 19% positive · 45% neutral · 36% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.

🔗The dominoes14 downstream moves tied to the hire.›

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“Texas Tech commit Austin Attalah recently visited UCLA as Bruins push to keep him home”
On3 CFB · Nov 3 · read ↗
“A Look at the Recruits Expected for UCLA Game with Nevada”
On3 · Oct 30 · read ↗

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 47 combined points, even games

What it is like to watch them2026 · 8-0

Game feel47even gamescombined pts / game12th highest-scoring of 18 in the Big Ten
Heart rate1-0rarely closein one-score games (1 of 8)17th most one-score games of 18 in the Big Ten
Margin+20.1comfortableavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 18 in the Big Ten
Tempo68average paceoffensive plays / game5th fastest of 18 in the Big Ten
Big plays1.11grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)17th most explosive of 18 in the Big Ten
Home crowd31,461avg attendance17th biggest crowds of 18 in the Big Ten

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind·Written June 2026

UCLA owns the best zip code in college football and almost never cashes it — then went 0-3, fired its coach, and watched a transfer quarterback nobody expected drag the season back to life.

CFP Ranking#8 CFP

Bruins fans are tired of being the other LA team — the one whose football is treated as a basketball school's hobby and USC's undercard. They'll point to the alumni list and ask why the program with…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weather43° at kickoff, 1% chance of rain

UCLA · Game-day weather

This Saturday: Cold. Bring a heavy coat.

UCLA at Minnesota · Saturday, Nov. 7 · noon ET · FOX · Huntington Bank Stadium.

  • 43°feels like
  • 1%average rain chance
  • 13 mphwind gusts
  • 88weather score, Mixed

Typical at Rose Bowl: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 98, noon Saturdays 84

This game is at Huntington Bank Stadium. The kickoff times below are for Rose Bowl, UCLA's home stadium.

  • noon: 84, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 89, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 98, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

UCLA is the program with the country's best football alumni list and the patience to wait for its next national peak.

Offense: SolidRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlStyle: Methodical, ball-control
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026 · Wk 7Climbed to No. 12 in the AP Top 25Week 6 · Won 17-15 at Oregon↑9 · from No. 21
  • 2026 · Wk 5Entered the AP Top 25Week 4 · Won 54-3 at Marylandat No. 23
  • 2026Hired Bob Chesney
  • 2025Tim Skipper departs (interim)3-6
  • 2025Deshaun Foster departs5-10
  • 2025Hired Tim Skipper (interim)

Roster and recruiting

Roster57% of production back, talent #25

Roster reload: UCLA

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production57%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#25 nationally247 composite 774.5
Portal Additions43Primary repair: OT
Portal Losses29Primary pressure: QB
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#62Depth class
WRin 6 - Aidan Mizell4.00out 6 - Jadyn Marshall4.28Even
current room: 191 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receiver2025 profileMoney-downmoves the chains on third down lives on the sticks and moves the chains
Former four-star
Sin 4 - Tao Johnson3.70out 4 - Scooter Jackson3.60Even
Hybrid Nickel2025 profilemoves between deep coverage and the slot
Homegrown
CBin 4 - Jhase McMillan3.60out 4 - Jamier Johnson4.28Even
current room: 188 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 4 - Amier Washington3.60out 3 - Siale Taupaki3.70Upgrade
current room: 282 lbs avg (2025 roster)
3-Tech Penetrator2024 profiledisrupts the pocket from the interior
OTin 5 - Jordan Davis3.60out 1 - Garrison Blank3.60Need Filled
LBin 4 - Sammy Omosigho4.12out 2 - Isaiah Chisom3.60Need Filled
current room: 223 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Full roster (122 players)
Top commits

Top 3 signees

2026 class
★★★★☆
Kenneth Moore III
WR · Stockton, CA
#438 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 20 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.Projection from his recruiting profile; no college snaps yet.
★★★★☆
Jonah Smith
WR · Rancho Santa Margarita, CA
#390 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.Projection from his recruiting profile; no college snaps yet.
★★★☆☆
Quinn Buckey
OT · Bakersfield, CA
#608 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] USC Defeats UCLA 29-10
287 upvotes · Nov 2025
[Game Thread] UCLA @ USC (7:30 PM ET)
41 upvotes · Nov 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 21% of FBS programs
↓

Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years

21st percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineThe betting market is far more optimistic than fans
Fan vs. market↓
21st
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
10.5
Sportsbook win total
(95th among FBS)
Market 74pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
Where voters differAP voters range from #2 to #10 (week 9)
Voter spread

70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #2, Bob Asmussen (Champaign News-Gazette), to #10, Nick Jacobs (KSHB-TV).

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.

Rivals

Rival pulse

USC
Mixed
-1
Battle for the Victory Bell

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow UCLA

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site