The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Minnesota 55%, Michigan 65%, No. 18 USC 67%
Win out 21% · expect 2.8 of 4 more wins
UCLA's chance to win each game left, from our model: Minnesota 55%, Illinois 89%, Michigan 65%, USC 67%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.
Playoff chance went from <1% to 33%, peaking at 42% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
