UCLA at Minnesota
Usual during the game: 41°, between 23° and 53° in about 7 in 10 games.
UCLA's home is usually 71° on this date, 30° warmer than here.
Airport reading near the stadium33 games since 2016 · How we measure
UCLA (#5, 8‑0) at Minnesota (5‑3) — UCLA is favored by 5.5. Minnesota’s offense is at the 14th percentile on efficiency; UCLA’s defense is at the 100th.
How they got here
Last three games
UCLA · 8-0
Rated 62nd in our preseason ratings, 19th now, up 43 spots.
Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
Minnesota · 5-3
Rated 29th in our preseason ratings, 50th now, down 21 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Iowa as a 7.5-point underdog.
W 59-7 vs Eastern Illinois No. 200 of 668 teams
won by 52 as a 42.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: Minnesota’s rushing EPA against UCLA, 95 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Minnesota’s EPA/play against UCLA’s defense
Minnesota offense, 14th percentile · UCLA defense, 100th
Minnesota’s rushing EPA against UCLA’s defense
Minnesota offense, 4th percentile · UCLA defense, 99th
Minnesota’s explosive plays against UCLA’s defense
Minnesota offense, 35th percentile · UCLA defense, 82nd
What’s at stake
UCLA
- UCLA sits at 33% to make the playoff — 43% with a win here, 21% with a loss.
- UCLA is coming off a 27-point win.
Minnesota
- Minnesota needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 81% with a loss.
- Minnesota is the Big Ten program whose 6 pre-WWII national titles + P.J. Fleck Row-the-Boat era + Floyd of Rosedale rivalry define what historic-program-resurrected looks like.
The series
Minnesota leads the series 3-1
4 meetings since 1961 · Minnesota won the last meeting
- 2024Minnesota 21-17
- 1978UCLA 17-3
- 1977Minnesota 27-13
- 1961 · neutral siteMinnesota 21-3
Each line is Minnesota’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
UCLA
The chip · vs big brotherBruins fans are tired of being the other LA team — the one whose football is treated as a basketball school's hobby and USC's undercard. They'll point to the alumni list and ask why the program with the better address keeps getting overlooked.
What this game touches
The 0-3 collapse and the Foster firing. UCLA opened 2025 winless through three games — its worst start since 2019 — and fired second-year coach DeShaun Foster after just 15 games. Interim Tim Skipper and a surging Nico Iamaleava pulled the team to a 3-9 finish, but the bottom-falling-out start was the latest proof that a program with every structural advantage keeps finding the floor.
Minnesota
The chip · vs the national mediaFans hear the program's golden age waved off as a relic of a smaller sport — and answer that the trophies are real, the resurrection is real, and the country keeps underrating a Gophers team that just won its ninth bowl in a row.
What this game touches
The long dormancy. Minnesota was one of the sport's great early powers, then spent generations as a Big Ten afterthought, with no outright conference title since 1967. Fleck's program is good — 8-5 in 2025, a Big Ten-record ninth straight bowl win — but the breakthrough back to the top of the league still hasn't come.
Best players
UCLA
- Jalen Woods (LB) · 63 tackles
- Samuel Omosigho (LB) · 56 tackles
- Wayne Knight (RB) · 680 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 64th (+25000)
Minnesota
- Maverick Baranowski (LB) · 62 tackles
- Kerry Brown (DB) · 47 tackles
- Zack Harden (DB) · 45 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. UCLA: Wayne Knight (680 rushing yards); Minnesota: Drake Lindsey (1,592 passing yards).
The total has moved down 3.0 points since opening (42.5 → 39.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
UCLA fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (21st percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
- Model · 45%
- Line · 33%
- Minnesota fans · 24th
- UCLA fans · 21st
UCLA favored by 5.5 · Total 39.5
UCLA by 5.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
UCLA’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Cold. Bring a heavy coat.
UCLA at Minnesota · Saturday, Nov. 7 · noon ET · FOX · Huntington Bank Stadium.
- 43°feels like
- 1%average rain chance
- 13 mphwind gusts
- 88weather score, Mixed
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 11 TV games with a forecast
- Cincinnati at Houston: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Baylor: 100, Ideal
- Penn State at Washington: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: 99, Comfortable
- Temple at Navy: 99, Comfortable
- Hawai'i at UTEP: 98, Comfortable
- UCF at Kansas: 95, Comfortable
- Liberty at New Mexico State: 94, Comfortable
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: 93, Comfortable
- UCLA at Minnesota: 88, Mixed
- Iowa at Northwestern: 87, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Huntington Bank Stadium: noon Saturdays score 86, 3:30 pm 82, 7:30 pm 83.
- noon: 86, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 82, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 83, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Minnesota is worth +4.7 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 60th percentile.
67% at home, 46% on the road against FBS opponents (35-17 home, 19-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.4 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,515 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Minnesota
- Wk 4Wat Washington27-24
- Wk 5Wvs Michigan20-14
- Wk 6Lat Purdue13-41
- Wk 8Wvs Iowa13-10
- Wk 9Lat Indiana16-23
UCLA
- Wk 4Wat Maryland54-3
- Wk 6Wat Oregon17-15
- Wk 7Wvs Wisconsin17-7
- Wk 8Wvs Michigan State28-10
- Wk 9Wvs Nevada27-0
Power rating by week
UCLA is rated 4.7 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Minnesota.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: +6.5 → +5.5 · Total: 42.5 → 39.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Minnesota 21, UCLA 17Oct 12, 2024