MINN Minnesota 5-3 16 IU No. 4 Indiana8-1 23 Final No. 4 Indiana beat Minnesota 23-16 in overtime. Share this game
We had Indiana favored. It won.
PJ getting a forearm to the nose and trying to play it off got a chuckle from me. A Minnesota fanSave as image How it swung Watch the plays Drives What it cost Box score Weather Before kickoff How it swung The turning point: Drzewiecki 60-yd field goal, Minnesota goes ahead 16-13 (Q4, 0:19). Indiana went from 64% to 17% to win. Fans right then: “Absolutely 0 reason to for Cignetti to let that time run off. Unspeakably stupid move.” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Indiana a 92% chance, and the closing betting line (Indiana was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.
Down to 17% in the fourth quarter, Indiana came back to win.
Up to 83% in the fourth quarter, then Minnesota lost it.
Final Indiana 23-16 Minnesota Indiana won Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. Final Minnesota 16-23 Indiana Minnesota lost Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. 50% 25% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OT 81% at half Indiana Minnesota Lowest 17% Won 23-16 4 5 −27 +31 Scores Indiana Minnesota Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Q4 1:01 to OT, play by play 50% 1 2 3 1:01 0:19 0:13 0:02 0:00 OT 50% 25% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OT 81% at half Indiana Minnesota Lowest 17% Won 23-16 Scores Indiana Minneso… Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud The last 1:01, play by play 50% 1 2 3 4 5 1:01 0:02 Final 50% 10% 25% 75% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OT 19% at half Minnesota Indiana High 83% Lost 16-23 4 5 +27 −31 Scores Minnesota Indiana Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Q4 1:01 to OT, play by play 50% 1 2 3 1:01 0:19 0:13 0:02 0:00 OT 50% 10% 25% 75% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OT 19% at half Minnesota Indiana High 83% Lost 16-23 Scores Minneso… Indiana Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: quiet Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: steady Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Minnesota fans: loud Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: quiet Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: loudest stretch Indiana fans: loud Indiana fans: steady Indiana fans: loudest stretch The last 1:01, play by play 50% 1 2 3 4 5 1:01 0:02 Final
See it from Minnesota’s side The five plays that swung it
1 Q4 0:19 Drzewiecki 60-yd field goal, Minnesota goes ahead 16-13 Indiana 64% → 17% (−47) 2 Q4 0:13 Wilson 33-yd pass to Becker Indiana 17% → 40% (+23) 3 Q4 0:00 McAteer 60-yd field goal, ties it 16-16 Indiana 40% → 80% (+40) 4 OT Lindsey 17-yd pass to Jennings Indiana 93% → 66% (−27) 5 OT Lindsey 5-yd run Indiana 66% → 97% (+31) The five plays that swung it
1 Q4 0:19 Drzewiecki 60-yd field goal, Minnesota goes ahead 16-13 Minnesota 36% → 83% (+47) 2 Q4 0:13 Wilson 33-yd pass to Becker Minnesota 83% → 60% (−23) 3 Q4 0:00 McAteer 60-yd field goal, ties it 16-16 Minnesota 60% → 20% (−40) 4 OT Lindsey 17-yd pass to Jennings Minnesota 7% → 34% (+27) 5 OT Lindsey 5-yd run Minnesota 34% → 3% (−31) Absolutely 0 reason to for Cignetti to let that time run off. Unspeakably stupid move.
Q4 1:13 · r/CFB game thread What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 4:31 Indiana punter Gowers punts into end zone for Minnesota safety Our best source of offense is the Indiana punter lol r/CFB game thread Cant punt. Can't throw. Can't run. Thank God put defense is good r/CFB game thread Q2 1:40 Indiana fans lament special teams failures after Radicic misses a 31-yard field goal Radicic used to be great! What happened over the offseason? r/CFB game thread Q4 9:20 Officials overturn Indiana touchdown, ruling Wilson pass incomplete OVERTURN IT r/CFB game thread You cant re grip the ball falling to the ground out of bounds, incomplete r/CFB game thread Q4 3:05 Officials overturn interception call on Lindsey pass to Tracy Video replay review and Josh hoover have been Minnesota's 2 best players today. r/CFB game thread Minnesota got lucky as all hell there with the incomplete pass ruling on that interception. Because that would have been game if they scored. r/CFB game thread Q4 1:13 Fans criticize Cignetti for not calling a timeout after Drzewiecki's 60-yard field goal Why tf did Indiana just let 30+ seconds run off the clock instead of using a timeout after third down? Dumbass move by Cignetti there. r/CFB game thread Indiana’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chart Starts from the pregame line (Indiana -20.5), at 94% for Indiana (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Indiana or Minnesota flair (2,143 and 1,279); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to. Watch the plays The bar and the arrow show Indiana’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Play all in order Q1, 7:17 Lindsey sacked for a 4-yd loss fumbles Q1, 7:17 · Indiana 0, Minnesota 3 ▲6% Indiana’s chance to win, 87% to 93% ▲6% Indiana’s chance to win, 87% to 93% ▶ Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football Q1, 6:42 Hoover 9-yd TD pass to Marsh Indiana goes ahead 7-3 Q1, 6:42 · Indiana 7, Minnesota 3 ▲2% Indiana’s chance to win, 93% to 95% ▲2% Indiana’s chance to win, 93% to 95% ▶ Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football Q2, 11:11 Beebe 9-yd run fumbles Q2, 11:11 · Indiana 7, Minnesota 3 7-3 score after the play 7-3 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football Q2, 4:15 Lindsey 39-yd TD pass to Voss Minnesota goes ahead 10-7 Q2, 4:15 · Indiana 7, Minnesota 10 ▼7% Indiana’s chance to win, 94% to 87% ▼7% Indiana’s chance to win, 94% to 87% ▶ Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football Q2, 0:11 Hoover intercepted by Howard at the Indiana 50 personal foul on Minnesota Q2, 0:11 · Indiana 7, Minnesota 10 ▼3% Indiana’s chance to win, 84% to 81% ▼3% Indiana’s chance to win, 84% to 81% ▶ Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football Q3, 13:40 Wilson sacked for a 4-yd loss Q3, 13:40 · Indiana 7, Minnesota 10 ▼5% Indiana’s chance to win, 82% to 77% ▼5% Indiana’s chance to win, 82% to 77% ▶ Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football Overtime Wilson 25-yd TD pass to Becker Indiana goes ahead 23-16 Overtime · Indiana 23, Minnesota 16 ▲13% Indiana’s chance to win, 80% to 93% ▲13% Indiana’s chance to win, 80% to 93% ▶ Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
Every drive Indiana scored on 5 of its 14 drives; Minnesota on 4 of its 14.
Indiana’s drives are teal, Minnesota’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
own goal goal line Q1 Minnesota: Punt, from 75 yards out to 76 Punt Indiana: Punt, from 84 yards out to 88 Punt Minnesota: Field goal, from 27 yards out to 19 Field goal Indiana: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69 Punt Minnesota: Fumble, from 74 yards out to 78 Fumble Indiana: Touchdown, from 14 yards out to 0 Touchdown Minnesota: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71 Punt Indiana: Missed field goal, from 73 yards out to 34 Missed FG Q2 Minnesota: Punt, from 54 yards out to 53 Punt Indiana: Punt, from 97 yards out to 83 Punt Minnesota: Punt, from 72 yards out to 59 Punt Indiana: Punt, from 88 yards out to 88 Punt Minnesota: Touchdown, from 39 yards out to 0 Touchdown Indiana: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 13 Missed FG Minnesota: Punt, from 80 yards out to 79 Punt Indiana: Interception, from 67 yards out to 56 Interception Minnesota: End of half, from 65 yards out to 57 End of half Q3 Indiana: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57 Punt Minnesota: Punt, from 91 yards out to 58 Punt Indiana: Field goal, from 93 yards out to 28 Field goal Minnesota: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 33 Field goal Q4 Indiana: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 18 Fumble Minnesota: Punt, from 82 yards out to 80 Punt Indiana: Field goal, from 69 yards out to 16 Field goal Minnesota: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 42 Field goal Indiana: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 42 Field goal OT Indiana: Touchdown, from 25 yards out to 0 Touchdown Minnesota: Turned over on downs, from 25 yards out to 9 Downs When fans got loud Firestorm
Fans were loudest as the game came down to the end.
Jump to the loudest stretch
The jump was firestorm; the crowd was firestorm.
First Second Third Fourth Indiana fans Minnesota fans usual Two crowds, one game The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Indiana fans
hoover “I know Hoover hasn't been great all season, but im going to keep copium he'll figure it out”
special “This must be the greatest D of all time for us to still be 7-1 with this offense and special teams”
fair “Becker lets like 90% of kicks roll and then fair-catches a ball at the 4 yard line lmao”
injured “Don't worry, if you just keep running out an obviously injured QB who already had accuracy issues, I'm sure he'll turn it around eventually”
Minnesota fans
lindsey “Drake Lindsey ruined this entire game. The Gophers will never have a good QB”
line “8/9 for 9 yards is an absurd stat line. That’s not even a real passing game”
gopher “The treat is the Gopher’s pulling this off after all this referee trickin’ (I’m still delusional)”
count “STOP THE COUNT (I will never give up on this joke)”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, now, need, don.
What it cost Indiana’s chance to make the playoff rose from 33% to 38%.
Make the playoff
Minnesota · lost 1% → ▼ 0%
Indiana · won 33% → ▲ 38% 33% ▲ 38%
Win the conference
Minnesota · lost 1% → ▼ 0%
Indiana · won 13% → ▲ 15% 13% ▲ 15%
Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Minnesota plays vs UCLA on Sat Nov 7 with a 0% chance to make the playoff. Indiana plays vs USC on Sat Nov 14 with a 38% chance to make the playoff.
Box score Indiana 23, Minnesota 16
Minnesota covered +20.5 by 13.5. The total, 39, stayed under 40.5.
Minnesota Indiana Total yards Minnesota 215 Indiana 419 215 419 Passing yards Minnesota 120 Indiana 275 120 275 Rushing yards Minnesota 95 Indiana 144 95 144 First downs Minnesota 10 Indiana 21 10 21 Turnovers Minnesota 1 Indiana 2 1 2 Time of possession Minnesota 28:27 Indiana 31:33 28:27 31:33 Team totals Minnesota Indiana Total yards 215 419 Passing 20 of 37, 120 yds 17 of 36, 275 yds Rushing 23 for 95 yds 33 for 144 yds First downs 10 21 Third down 3 of 15 2 of 13 Fourth down 1 of 2 0 of 1 Turnovers 1 2 Penalties 8 for 60 yds 8 for 48 yds Time of possession 28:27 31:33
Minnesota leaders Passing Drake Lindsey 20 of 37, 120 yds, 1 TDRushing TJ Thomas Jr. 6 for 54 yds; Darius Taylor 7 for 43 ydsReceiving Javon Tracy 7 for 40 yds; Roman Voss 2 for 39 yds, 1 TDIndiana leaders Passing Grant Wilson 9 of 17, 156 yds, 1 TDRushing Lee Beebe 15 for 84 yds; Turbo Richard 7 for 34 ydsReceiving Charlie Becker 8 for 149 yds, 1 TD; Nick Marsh 4 for 59 yds, 1 TDNo rain and calm 63° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 12
The usual here around this date is 56°, with about 7 in 10 games between 43° and 68°.
October game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Indiana favored Minnesota favored 100% Win chance Indiana Rain inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind mph, average and gusts 20 mph 40 mph Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Indiana favored Minnesota favored Rain · inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind · miles per hour 20 40 Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Fourth quarter, 0:19 left7:03 p.m.
Minnesota 16, Indiana 13 · Indiana 17% to win
no rain · wind 5 mph from the east-southeast · 61°
Drzewiecki 60-yd field goal, Minnesota goes ahead 16-13
Previous play Next play
Jump to Biggest swing: 47 points of win chance · fourth Where this weather comes from Measured at Bloomington airport, 5.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Matchups Biggest mismatch: Minnesota’s rushing EPA against Indiana, 83 points Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Minnesota’s EPA/play against Indiana’s defense
80 points weaker stronger 50th Minnesota offense, 14th percentile · Indiana defense, 94th
Minnesota’s rushing EPA against Indiana’s defense
83 points weaker stronger 50th Minnesota offense, 4th percentile · Indiana defense, 87th
Indiana’s explosive plays against Minnesota’s defense
52 points weaker stronger 50th Indiana offense, 92nd percentile · Minnesota defense, 40th
Season profile, all the rows Season profile Minnesota Indiana
EPA/play, offense
Minnesota · 14 Indiana · 92 EPA/play, defense
Minnesota · 82 Indiana · 94 Success rate, offense
Minnesota · 12 Indiana · 63 Success rate, defense
Minnesota · 77 Indiana · 99 Explosive-play rate, offense
Minnesota · 36 Indiana · 92 Explosive-play rate, defense
Minnesota · 40 Indiana · 8 Rush EPA, offense
Minnesota · 4 Indiana · 58 Rush EPA, defense
Minnesota · 58 Indiana · 87 Pass EPA, offense
Minnesota · 33 Indiana · 97 Pass EPA, defense
Minnesota · 64 Indiana · 88 The series Minnesota leads the series 40-26-3
69 meetings since 1906 · Minnesota has won the last 4
Indiana won Minnesota won 1906: Minnesota by 2 1917: Minnesota by 24 1919: Minnesota by 14 1920: Indiana by 14 1921: Minnesota by 6 1922: Minnesota by 20 1927: tie 1928: Minnesota by 9 1929: Minnesota by 12 1930: Minnesota by 6 1933: tie 1934: Minnesota by 30 1937: Minnesota by 6 1942: Indiana by 7 1944: Minnesota by 5 1945: Indiana by 49 1946: Indiana by 21 1948: Minnesota by 23 1951: Minnesota by 2 1953: Minnesota by 8 1957: Minnesota by 34 1958: Indiana by 6 1959: Minnesota by 10 1960: Minnesota by 42 1963: Indiana by 18 1964: Minnesota by 21 1965: Minnesota by 24 1966: tie 1967: Minnesota by 26 1968: Minnesota by 14 1969: Indiana by 10 1970: Minnesota by 23 1971: Minnesota by 28 1972: Indiana by 4 1973: Minnesota by 21 1974: Indiana by 31 1975: Indiana by 6 1976: Minnesota by 19 1977: Indiana by 12 1978: Minnesota by 1 1979: Indiana by 18 1980: Minnesota by 24 1981: Indiana by 1 1982: Indiana by 19 1983: Indiana by 7 1984: Minnesota by 9 1985: Minnesota by 15 1986: Minnesota by 2 1987: Indiana by 1 1988: Indiana by 20 1989: Indiana by 10 1990: Minnesota by 12 1991: Indiana by 26 1992: Indiana by 7 1993: Indiana by 4 1994: Indiana by 11 1997: Minnesota by 12 1998: Indiana by 1 1999: Minnesota by 24 2000: Indiana by 8 2003: Minnesota by 48 2004: Indiana by 9 2005: Minnesota by 21 2006: Minnesota by 37 2007: Indiana by 20 2008: Minnesota by 9 2013: Minnesota by 3 2018: Minnesota by 7 2021: Minnesota by 21 1906 2021 2021 Minnesota 35-14 Indiana lost 14-35 vs Minnesota. Chance to win started at 30%, low under 1%, high 63%. 2018 Minnesota 38-31 Indiana lost 31-38 at Minnesota. Chance to win started at 59%, low 1%, high 77%. 2013 Minnesota 42-39 2008 Minnesota 16-7 2007 Indiana 40-20 Each line is Indiana’s chance to win through that meeting. Indiana is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field The betting line, and the fans Minnesota fans are in a better mood than Indiana fans (67th percentile vs 55th among FBS fanbases), even with Indiana favored.
50-50 Model 92% · Line 95% Indiana fans · 55th Minnesota fans · 67th Minnesota Indiana Indiana favored by 20.5 · Total 40.5
How games like this usually go Indiana by 20.5: the game against the usual path 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Half of games 8 in 10 games This game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 275 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market The spread moved 2 points toward Minnesota.
opened −22.5 now −20.5 The total fell 5 points.
opened 45.5 now 40.5 Spread: −22.5 → −20.5 · Total: 45.5 → 40.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Home field Indiana is worth +4.2 points (±4.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 52nd percentile.
61% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (30-19 home, 20-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why ); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.9 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 527 miles to get here.
Where next Conference standings Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Full Big Ten standings