USC at Indiana
USC (7‑2) at Indiana (8‑1) — Indiana is favored by 10. The model gives Indiana a 76% shot. Indiana’s passing offense is at the 97th percentile; USC’s pass defense is at the 18th.
How they got here
Last three games
USC · 7-2
Rated 28th in our preseason ratings, 27th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 12-point win over Ohio State as a 6.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Indiana · 8-1
Rated 8th in our preseason ratings, 4th now.
2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: Indiana’s passing EPA against USC, 79 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Indiana’s passing EPA against USC’s defense
Indiana offense, 97th percentile · USC defense, 18th
Indiana’s EPA/play against USC’s defense
Indiana offense, 92nd percentile · USC defense, 34th
Indiana’s explosive plays against USC’s defense
Indiana offense, 92nd percentile · USC defense, 50th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
The series
USC leads the series 4-0
4 meetings since 1953 · USC has won the last 4
- 1982USC 28-7
- 1981USC 21-0
- 1967 · neutral siteUSC 14-3
- 1953USC 27-14
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
USC
The chip · vs the national mediaThe fanbase has spent fifteen years hearing the program eulogized as a faded brand coasting on its zip code; they say the talent pipeline, the recruiting and the city were never the problem, and they're done being framed as a name that used to matter.
What this game touches
The Alamo Bowl overtime loss. An ascending 9-4 season ended with No. 16 USC blowing a fourth-quarter lead and falling to TCU 30-27 in overtime — the kind of one-score finish that, to a fanbase used to closing games, felt like proof the program isn't all the way back yet.
Indiana
The chip · vs the national mediaThe same voices who called 2024 a fluke and 2025 a soft schedule are still waiting for Indiana to fall back to earth. Cignetti's answer — roughly, 'I win, look it up' — became the fanbase's whole posture.
What this game touches
A century as the Big Ten's football afterthought. From 1887 to 2023 Indiana had never won 11 games or reached the playoff; the football program was a punchline at a basketball blue blood. Cignetti inverted it in two seasons — but the long irrelevance is the backdrop every win is still measured against.
Best players
USC
- Jayden Maiava (QB) · 2,525 passing yards — Heisman odds: 7th (+1750)
- Deven Bryant (LB) · 55 tackles
- Christian Pierce (S) · 49 tackles
Indiana
- Charlie Becker (WR) · 875 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 51st (+20000)
- Isaiah Jones (LB) · 65 tackles
- Rolijah Hardy (LB) · 58 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Indiana fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (31st percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Indiana favored by 10 · Total 58.5
Indiana by 10: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Indiana’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 450 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Memorial Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 90
USC at Indiana · Saturday, Nov. 14 · Memorial Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 90.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Indiana is worth +4.2 points (±4.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 52nd percentile.
61% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (30-19 home, 20-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.9 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,788 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Indiana
- Wk 5Wat Rutgers47-15
- Wk 6Wat Nebraska20-17
- Wk 7Lvs Ohio State15-19
- Wk 8Wat Michigan13-6
- Wk 9Wvs Minnesota23-16
USC
- Wk 4Lvs Oregon27-41
- Wk 5Wvs Washington25-21
- Wk 6Wat Penn State31-23
- Wk 8Lat Wisconsin7-24
- Wk 9Wvs Ohio State30-18
Power rating by week
Indiana is rated 5.7 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.