USC 42-35 Rutgers (Sep 19, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: USC · Rutgers

No. 12 USC4-042

Rutgers0-335Final

Sat, Sep 19 · SHI Stadium, Piscataway, N.J. · Crowd 43,045

No. 12 USC beat Rutgers 42-35.

We had USC favored. It won.

Next: USC lost to Oregon 41-27, Sat Sep 26

Next: Rutgers beat Howard 58-7, Fri Sep 25

Top comment in the game thread

Idk, FG is still up 2 possessions there. Don't like that decision

Q4 15:00 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave USC a 75% chance, and the closing betting line (USC was a 21-point favorite) put it at 95%.

Favored the whole way: USC never fell below 85%.

Rutgers never had better than a 14% chance.

Pick-six

USC · Q3 10:32

FinalUSC 42-35 RutgersUSC wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q3 11:18Prophet Brown intercepts Lonergan for a 99-yard touchdownLonergan has to be a double agent. That may be one of the worst throws I've seen.r/CFB game threadThrows the ball behind and telegraphs the easiest pick six ever wtfr/CFB game thread
Q3 5:52Wormley runs for a touchdown as USC fans praise the offense and criticize the defenseYea bench Waymo. Wormley is younger and looking better rnr/CFB game thread
Q3 0:32Rutgers falls for offside trick, USC gets free first down on Maiava passRutgers coach might stroke outr/CFB game threadwe are rutgersr/CFB game thread
Q4 15:00USC fans rip Lincoln Riley for going for it on fourth down instead of kicking a field goalQuoted at the top of the page.Going for it on 4th down there is legitimately insane.r/CFB game thread
Q4 8:35Maiava throws touchdown to Wormley as fans mock Schiano's WildcatNot even a good throw by Maiava. Good stuff by Wormley!r/CFB game thread
Q4 4:31Rutgers scores a touchdown to make it 42-35 with 4:24 leftIf USC doesn't score, Rutgers is gonna get a TD and make the 2pt conversion for the win.r/CFB game threadRutgers got some fight in them todayr/CFB game thread

USC’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (USC -21), at 89% for USC (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Rutgers or USC flair (331 and 1,056); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show USC’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

USC scored on 6 of its 9 drives; Rutgers on 5 of its 10.

USC’s drives are teal, Rutgers’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Just start all the freshman at WR, honestly”

A USC fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans were loudest in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

USC fans

riley“Riley’s play calling IQ regresses 10 points for every time zone he crosses”

Rutgers fans

duff“we can watch KJ duff and that’s it. Assuming the ball can even make it his way”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: back, now, score, coach.

What it cost

USC’s chance to make the playoff rose from 45% to 57%.

Make the playoff

USC · won45% → ▲57%

Rutgers · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

USC · won17% → ▲30%

Rutgers · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

USC 42, Rutgers 35

Rutgers covered +21 by 14. The total, 77, went over 59.5.

Team totals	USC	Rutgers
Total yards	461	460
Passing	20 of 32, 277 yds	19 of 37, 292 yds
Rushing	31 for 184 yds	32 for 168 yds
First downs	24	27
Third down	5 of 10	6 of 11
Fourth down	1 of 2	3 of 4
Turnovers	0	2
Penalties	8 for 71 yds	5 for 39 yds
Time of possession	26:45	33:15

USC leaders

Passing Jayden Maiava 20 of 32, 277 yds, 2 TD
Rushing King Miller 16 for 102 yds, 1 TD; Riley Wormley 3 for 52 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Kayden Dixon-Wyatt 5 for 77 yds; Corey Simms 4 for 72 yds, 1 TD

Rutgers leaders

Passing Dylan Lonergan 18 of 36, 252 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Antwan Raymond 21 for 122 yds, 1 TD; Dylan Lonergan 6 for 27 yds
Receiving KJ Duff 7 for 86 yds, 1 TD; Ben Black 2 for 43 yds

No rain and calm

71° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the southeast, gusts to 17

September game-day temperatures at SHI Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:52 left3:45 p.m.

USC 0, Rutgers 0 · Rutgers 11% to win

no rain · wind 6 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 14 · 71°

Miller 3-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Somerville airport, 13 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

USC · 3-0

Rated 28th in our preseason ratings, 26th now.

Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 49-30 vs Louisiana #34 of 668

won by 19 as a 30.5-point favorite

W 39-0 vs Fresno State #51 of 668

won by 39 as a 21.5-point favorite

W 42-26 vs San José State #132 of 668

won by 16 as a 37.5-point favorite

Last two games

Rutgers · 0-2

Rated 68th in our preseason ratings, 88th now, down 20 spots.

Two straight losses.

L 21-28 @ Boston College #136 of 668

lost by 7 as a 3-point underdog

L 21-37 vs Massachusetts #244 of 668

lost by 16 as a 29.5-point favorite

Week by week

Rutgers

Wk 1Lvs Massachusetts21-37
Wk 2Lat Boston College21-28

USC

Wk 1Wvs San José State42-26
Wk 1Wvs Fresno State39-0
Wk 2Wvs Louisiana49-30

Power rating by week

USC is rated 7.5 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: USC’s passing EPA against Rutgers, 80 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

USC’s EPA/play against Rutgers’s defense
USC offense, 92nd percentile · Rutgers defense, 13th
USC’s passing EPA against Rutgers’s defense
USC offense, 97th percentile · Rutgers defense, 17th
Rutgers’s explosive plays against USC’s defense
Rutgers offense, 86th percentile · USC defense, 28th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

USCRutgers

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

USC leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2024 · USC won the last meeting

2024USC 42-20

Each line is Rutgers’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

USC fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (17th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

USC favored by 21 · Total 59.5

How games like this usually go

USC by 21: the game against the usual path

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3.5 points toward Rutgers.

The total rose 2 points.

The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 68° at kickoff.

USC at Rutgers · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · SHI Stadium, Piscataway

68°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
100weather score, Ideal

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At SHI Stadium that day, a noon, 1 pm or 2 pm kickoff would have scored 98, against 100 at 3:30 pm.

noon: 98, Comfortable
1 pm: 98, Comfortable
2 pm: 98, Comfortable
3:30 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
4 pm: 100, Ideal
6 pm: 100, Ideal
7:30 pm: 100, Ideal
7:45 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Rutgers is worth +2.0 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 17th percentile.

31% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (16-35 home, 14-29 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.7 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 2,426 miles to get here.

No. 12 USC beats Rutgers 42-35