Oregon 41-27 USC (Sep 26, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Oregon · USC

No. 20 Oregon3-141

No. 12 USC4-127Final

Sat, Sep 26 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, Calif. · Crowd 75,500

No. 20 Oregon beat No. 12 USC 41-27.

We had Oregon favored. It won.

Next: Oregon lost to UCLA 17-15, Sat Oct 10

Next: USC beat Washington 25-21, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

USC SUBREDDIT LOCKED THEIR GAME THREAD LOL

Q4 1:03 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oregon a 64% chance, and the closing betting line (Oregon was a 3.5-point favorite) put it at 61%.

Oregon won by 14, after dipping to 40% in the first quarter.

USC never had better than a 60% chance.

TargetingQ2 10:06

FinalOregon 41-27 USCOregon wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 12:41Maiava 11-yd TD pass to Hines, ties it 27-27Oregon 71% → 58% (−13)
2Q4 8:35Raiola 29-yd TD pass to Moore, Oregon goes ahead 34-27Oregon 67% → 81% (+14)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 12:41Maiava 11-yd TD pass to Hines, ties it 27-27USC 29% → 42% (+13)
2Q4 8:35Raiola 29-yd TD pass to Moore, Oregon goes ahead 34-27USC 33% → 19% (−14)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q4 7:15Oregon's Finney breaks up Maiava's pass for a turnover on downsFinney you da manr/CFB game thread**Commercial Break Fun Facts - Oregon:** *The world's final remaining Blockbuster Video store still operates in Bend, Oregon.*r/CFB game thread
Q4 1:03Oregon fans celebrate Perich's interception ending USC's failed two-minute drillQuoted at the top of the page.Suck my whole asshole #8r/CFB game thread

Oregon’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Oregon -3.5), at 49% for Oregon (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a USC or Oregon flair (1,041 and 2,628); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Oregon’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Oregon scored on 7 of its 10 drives; USC on 5 of its 10.

Oregon’s drives are teal, USC’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From USC’s side

USC’s best moment: Maiava 11-yd TD pass to Hines, ties it 27-27 (Q4 12:41). It lifted USC’s win chance by 13 points.

How USC fans took it: “Lincoln Riley is an unserious clown” r/CFB game thread

“Defense absolutely needs a stop. Come on secondary”

An Oregon fan

How fans reacted

Steady

The jump was steady; the crowd was loud.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

USC fans

riley“Wow, Lincoln Riley achieved a 3 and out. We’ll give him a 10 year extension for that.”

terrible“He’d be a great offensive coordinator. Terrible head coach at the elite level.”

dumb“They go up 7 and Riley's dumb decision to receive every game will get them up 14”

alright“Alright Oregon ends this now please and ty so we can wonder how we're gonna lose to Washington”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: hit, dirty, now, celebrating.

What it cost

USC’s chance to make the playoff fell from 50% to 40%.

Make the playoff

Oregon · won25% → ▲34%

USC · lost50% → ▼40%

Win the conference

Oregon · won13% → ▲19%

USC · lost19% → ▼12%

Win the title

Oregon · won2% → ▲3%

USC · lost5% → ▼4%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Oregon 41, USC 27

Oregon covered −3.5 by 10.5. The total, 68, went over 60.5.

Team totals	Oregon	USC
Total yards	504	446
Passing	27 of 35, 366 yds	23 of 42, 326 yds
Rushing	33 for 138 yds	33 for 120 yds
First downs	23	26
Third down	6 of 12	2 of 11
Fourth down	2 of 2	4 of 5
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	5 for 50 yds	6 for 44 yds
Time of possession	31:25	28:35

Oregon leaders

Passing Dylan Raiola 19 of 25, 289 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Jordon Davison 16 for 66 yds, 1 TD; Dierre Hill Jr. 15 for 63 yds, 2 TD
Receiving Jamari Johnson 7 for 119 yds; Dierre Hill Jr. 4 for 105 yds

USC leaders

Passing Jayden Maiava 23 of 42, 326 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing King Miller 13 for 74 yds; Waymond Jordan 9 for 41 yds
Receiving Kayden Dixon-Wyatt 7 for 114 yds, 1 TD; Terrell Anderson 2 for 50 yds

No rain and calm

80° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the west, gusts to 15

September game-day temperatures at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:56 left4:36 p.m.

Oregon 0, USC 0 · USC 51% to win

no rain · wind 8 mph from the west-northwest · 81°

Miller 4-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Hawthorne Municipal airport, 6.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Oregon · 2-1

Rated 3rd in our preseason ratings, 5th now.

2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 84-0 vs Portland State #244 of 668

won by 84 as a 58.5-point favorite

L 31-39 @ Oklahoma StateTop 25 #231 of 668

lost by 8 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 34-27 vs Boise StateTop 25 #29 of 668

won by 7 as a 24.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

USC · 4-0

Rated 28th in our preseason ratings, 29th now.

4 straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 42-35 @ Rutgers #89 of 668

won by 7 as a 21-point favorite

W 49-30 vs Louisiana #34 of 668

won by 19 as a 30.5-point favorite

W 39-0 vs Fresno State #51 of 668

won by 39 as a 21.5-point favorite

W 42-26 vs San José State #132 of 668

won by 16 as a 37.5-point favorite

Week by week

USC

Wk 1Wvs San José State42-26
Wk 1Wvs Fresno State39-0
Wk 2Wvs Louisiana49-30
Wk 3Wat Rutgers42-35

Oregon

Wk 1Wvs Boise State34-27
Wk 2Lat Oklahoma State31-39
Wk 3Wvs Portland State84-0

Power rating by week

Oregon is rated 6.3 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oregon’s passing EPA against USC, 37 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Oregon’s passing EPA against USC’s defense
Oregon offense, 50th percentile · USC defense, 13th
USC’s explosive plays against Oregon’s defense
USC offense, 57th percentile · Oregon defense, 30th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

OregonUSC

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

USC leads the series 39-23-2

64 meetings since 1920 · Oregon has won the last 4

2025Oregon 42-27
2023Oregon 36-27
2020Oregon 31-24
2019Oregon 56-24
2016USC 45-20

Each line is USC’s chance to win through that meeting. USC is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Oregon fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (47th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Oregon favored by 3.5 · Total 60.5

How games like this usually go

Oregon by 3.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward USC.

The total rose 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 80° at kickoff.

Oregon at USC · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles

80°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
91weather score, Comfortable
Roughestof the day's 4 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 4 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the roughest of the day's four kickoff times. At Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum that day, a 7:30 pm or 8 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 91 at 4:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

4:30 pm: 91, Comfortable (this game)
6 pm: 98, Comfortable
7:30 pm: 100, Ideal
8 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

USC is worth +5.5 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 74th percentile.

70% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (38-16 home, 22-20 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.0 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±4.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 740 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Oregon 31, USC 24Pac-12 Championship · Dec 18, 2020

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

USC7th1-0
Oregon9th0-0

Full Big Ten standings

No. 20 Oregon upsets No. 12 USC 41-27