2Q1 4:08PenaltySpecial teams32-yd punt, Mosley returns it 44, personal foul on OsuUSC 47% → 62% (+15)
The two plays that swung it
1Q1 14:21Maiava 69-yd TD pass to Mosley, USC goes ahead 7-0Ohio State 60% → 35% (−25)
2Q1 4:08PenaltySpecial teams32-yd punt, Mosley returns it 44, personal foul on OsuOhio State 53% → 38% (−15)
# Notice how USC scored from the 1 foot line in one try instead of losing 5 yards in 3 plays and kicking a field goal? # Unlike some other team in this game
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q3 7:34Bowman hurdles defender for 70 yards, setting up USC touchdownThat is BY FAR the most yards I’ve ever seen after a hurdle lolr/CFB game thread
Q4 2:12Fans rip Ohio State for going for two and failing after Fahey touchdownOSU started this drive with a 2% chance to win. After scoring a TD, it is now 1%. Lmaor/CFB game threadI don't understand going for it there. Kicking the extra point and making it a one score game seems like the obvious choice there, no?r/CFB game thread
USC’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Ohio State -6.5), at 40% for USC (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a USC or Ohio State flair (902 and 4,325); both sides share one scale, regulation only.The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.05 in of rain, heaviest in the third quarter. Measured at Hawthorne Municipal airport, 6.9 miles away. Full conditions below.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show USC’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
USC fans
riley“Riley is coaching for his job. Never seen this guy have this much fight.”
happy“They're getting called 35% of the time which I'm happy for. B1G doesn't really call holding”
storm“No don't storm this should be how we win. Anyways GG I think this game goes opposite with Sayin but fun watch”
waymo“Woah that was an unexpected burst of speed from waymo”
Ohio State fans
fahey“Fahey hasn't been the problem, we've just been shooting ourselves in the foot”
line“I just can’t get over not running a QB sneak on the goal line, how do you make that mistake?”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, don, back, field.
What it cost
USC’s chance to make the playoff rose from 18% to 28%.
Make the playoff
Ohio State · lost84% → ▼75%
USC · won18% → ▲28%
Win the conference
Ohio State · lost52% → ▼42%
USC · won3% → ▲6%
Win the title
Ohio State · lost15% → ▼13%
USC · won1% → ▲2%
Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Ohio State plays vs Oregon on Sat Nov 7 with a 75% chance to make the playoff. USC plays at Indiana on Sat Nov 14 with a 28% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
USC 30, Ohio State 18
USC covered +6.5 by 18.5. The total, 48, stayed under 50.5.
Team totals
Ohio State
USC
Total yards
464
338
Passing
21 of 38, 260 yds
15 of 23, 222 yds
Rushing
43 for 204 yds
27 for 116 yds
First downs
25
15
Third down
7 of 16
4 of 10
Fourth down
0 of 1
0 of 0
Turnovers
1
1
Penalties
11 for 71 yds
6 for 42 yds
Time of possession
39:28
20:32
Ohio State leaders
Passing Luke Fahey 21 of 38, 260 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Bo Jackson 21 for 121 yds; Isaiah West 13 for 65 yds
Receiving Jeremiah Smith 10 for 83 yds, 1 TD; Chris Henry Jr. 2 for 50 yds
USC leaders
Passing Jayden Maiava 15 of 22, 222 yds, 1 TD
Rushing King Miller 13 for 78 yds, 1 TD; Waymond Jordan 12 for 48 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Trent Mosley 5 for 101 yds, 1 TD; Mark Bowman 3 for 79 yds
Rain for part of the game
70° at kickoff · 0.05 in of rain · wind 3 mph from the west, gusts to 10
Maiava 69-yd TD pass to Mosley, USC goes ahead 7-0
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Hawthorne Municipal airport, 6.9 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Ohio State · 6-1
Rated 4th in our preseason ratings, 1st now.
Three straight wins, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.
Ohio State is rated 9.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Ohio State’s passing EPA against USC, 71 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Ohio State’s passing EPA against USC’s defense
Ohio State offense, 89th percentile · USC defense, 18th
Ohio State’s EPA/play against USC’s defense
Ohio State offense, 88th percentile · USC defense, 34th
Ohio State’s explosive plays against USC’s defense
Ohio State offense, 66th percentile · USC defense, 51st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Ohio StateUSC
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
USC leads the series 13-10-1
24 meetings since 1937 · Ohio State won the last meeting
2017 · neutral siteOhio State 24-7
2009USC 18-15
2008USC 35-3
1990USC 35-26
1989USC 42-3
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Ohio State fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (53rd percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Model · 16%
Line · 30%
USC fans · 26th
Ohio State fans · 53rd
Ohio State favored by 6.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Ohio State by 6.5, on the usual path until Q1 4:08
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward USC.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: +7.5 → +6.5 · Total: 54.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
USC is worth +5.7 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 79th percentile.
71% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (39-16 home, 22-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.7 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±4.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,976 miles to get here.
USC 30-18 Ohio State
USC wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.05 in of rain