No. 7 Ohio State beats Illinois 42-19

Illinois2-219
No. 7 Ohio State3-142Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio · Crowd 101,452FOX

No. 7 Ohio State beat Illinois 42-19.

We had Ohio State favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

Paid for by the US Government. Direct violation of the Hatch Act.

Q3 6:59 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ohio State a 96% chance, and the closing betting line (Ohio State was a 25.5-point favorite) put it at 98%.

Ohio State led by 7 after the first quarter and by 18 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+23+23

Favored the whole way: Ohio State never fell below 96%.

Illinois never had better than a 3% chance.

FinalOhio State 42-19 IllinoisOhio State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Ohio StateWon42-19ScoresOhio StateIllinoisOhio State fans: 7 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 5 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 28 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 18 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 30 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 13 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 12 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 13 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 19 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 25 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 16 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 10 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 14 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 17 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 6 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 5 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 11 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 17 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 13 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 12 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 31 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 29 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 18 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 4 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 25 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 12 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 19 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 8 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 11 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 11 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 8 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 8 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 7 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 7 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Ohio StateWon42-19ScoresO. StateIllinoisOhio State fans: 7 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 5 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 28 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 18 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 30 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 13 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 12 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 13 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 19 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 25 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 16 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 10 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 14 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 17 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 6 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 5 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 11 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 17 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 13 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 12 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 31 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 29 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 18 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 4 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 25 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 12 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 19 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 8 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 11 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 11 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 8 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 8 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 7 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 7 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Ohio StateLowest 0%Lost19-42ScoresIllinoisOhio StateIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 8 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 7 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 7 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 7 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 5 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 28 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 18 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 30 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 13 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 12 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 13 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 19 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 25 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 16 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 10 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 14 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 17 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 6 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 5 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 11 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 17 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 13 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 12 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 31 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 29 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 18 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 4 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 25 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 12 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 19 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 8 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 11 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 11 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 8 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Ohio StateLowest 0%Lost19-42ScoresIllinoisO. StateIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 8 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 7 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 7 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 7 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 5 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 28 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 18 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 30 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 13 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 12 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 13 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 19 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 25 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 16 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 10 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 14 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 17 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 6 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 5 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 11 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 17 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 13 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 12 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 31 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 29 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 18 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 4 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 25 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 12 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 19 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 20 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 15 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 8 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 11 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 11 comments a minuteOhio State fans: 8 comments a minute

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 3:39A wide receiver made an impressive move on a defensive back.Oh god, that move on the DB. That is unfair.r/CFB game thread
  2. Q1 1:04Illinois scores on Anderson run as Ohio State fans criticize their defenseTake Matt’s pencil away until the defense gets a turnover.r/CFB game threadWow that play fooled the buckeyes there Our defense was on the entire left side of the field lolr/CFB game thread
  3. Q2 12:43Sayin scrambles for first down as fans praise his runningJulian “Lamar Jackson” Sayinr/CFB game thread
  4. Q2 7:54Fans praise replay transparency as Smith scores on Sayin passJeremiah Smith should be the #1 pick. Even if that team needs a QB. That's how good he is.r/CFB game threadIf you’re a GM and you pass on Jeremiah Smith you should be fired immediatelyr/CFB game thread
  5. Q3 6:59Quoted at the top of the page.Corruption. Using tax payer dollars for commercials like that is illegal.r/CFB game thread
Ohio State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Ohio State -25.5), at 97% for Ohio State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Ohio State or Illinois flair (2,586 and 566); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

Ohio State scored on 6 of its 9 drives; Illinois on 4 of its 9.

Ohio State’s drives are teal, Illinois’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Ohio State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois: Punt, from 89 yards out to 55PuntOhio State: Touchdown, from 93 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownOhio State: Punt, from 78 yards out to 72PuntQ2Illinois: Punt, from 65 yards out to 46PuntOhio State: Touchdown, from 96 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 25Field goalOhio State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois: End of half, from 75 yards out to 42End of halfQ3Illinois: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 26Field goalOhio State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 43PuntIllinois: Turned over on downs, from 94 yards out to 20DownsQ4Ohio State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownOhio State: Touchdown, from 43 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 35DownsOhio State: End of game, from 65 yards out to 67End of game
“Crazy how Michigan is such a joke that they have caused us to get some actual transparency”
A fan of another team

How fans reacted

Steady

The loudest stretch came in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

FirstSecondThirdFourthOhio State fansIllinois fansusual

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Illinois fans

tackle“The thing is we'd suck with any defensive scheme right now. Unless there's some magic defensive scheme that works when your team can't tackle”

score“I know the score is a blowout, but I actually don't feel that bad about how we've played.”

honestly“Honestly, if we can play like we have since OSU went up 14-0 for the rest of the year we can win some games.”

basketball“This’ll be a basketball score for Ohio State by the end of the game Like 63-21 or something”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, now, need, getting.

What it cost

Ohio State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 69% to 71%.

Make the playoff

Illinois · lost0% → 0%
Ohio State · won69% → ▲71%69%▲ 71%

Win the conference

Illinois · lost0% → 0%
Ohio State · won35% → ▲36%35%▲ 36%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Ohio State 42, Illinois 19

Illinois covered +25.5 by 2.5. The total, 61, went over 53.5.

IllinoisOhio StateTotal yardsIllinois 462Ohio State 518462518Passing yardsIllinois 263Ohio State 367263367Rushing yardsIllinois 199Ohio State 151199151First downsIllinois 25Ohio State 272527TurnoversIllinois 0Ohio State 000Time of possessionIllinois 30:38Ohio State 29:2230:3829:22
Team totalsIllinoisOhio State
Total yards462518
Passing21 of 38, 263 yds27 of 36, 367 yds
Rushing33 for 199 yds32 for 151 yds
First downs2527
Third down6 of 148 of 12
Fourth down1 of 32 of 2
Turnovers00
Penalties6 for 52 yds7 for 59 yds
Time of possession30:3829:22

Illinois leaders

  • Passing Katin Houser 21 of 37, 263 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Aidan Laughery 11 for 113 yds; Ca'Lil Valentine 10 for 47 yds
  • Receiving Hudson Clement 5 for 87 yds; Collin Dixon 5 for 63 yds

Ohio State leaders

  • Passing Julian Sayin 27 of 36, 367 yds, 4 TD
  • Rushing Ja'Kobi Jackson 10 for 56 yds, 1 TD; Bo Jackson 11 for 53 yds
  • Receiving Jeremiah Smith 12 for 217 yds, 4 TD; Nate Roberts 4 for 36 yds

No rain and calm

66° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 10 mph from the north-northeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 21

September game-day temperatures at Ohio Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Ohio State favoredIllinois favored100%Win chanceOhio StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Ohio State favoredIllinois favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 15:00 left12:11 p.m.
Illinois 0, Ohio State 0 · Ohio State 97% to win
no rain · wind 10 mph from the north, mostly along the field, gusts to 20 · 67°
Sayin 9-yd pass to Jackson
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Columbus/st Univ airport, 6.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Illinois · 2-1

Rated 70th in our preseason ratings, 71st now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Last three games

Ohio State · 2-1

Rated 4th in our preseason ratings, 1st now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 59-3 vs Kent State #120 of 668

won by 56 as a 52.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 59-3 vs Kent State. Never in doubt.

L 23-24 @ TexasTop 25 #4 of 668

lost by 1 as a 2.5-point underdog

Ohio State lost 23-24 at Texas. Chance to win started at 35%, low under 1%, high 97%.

W 56-3 vs Ball State #144 of 668

won by 53 as a 50.5-point favorite

Ohio State won 56-3 vs Ball State. Never in doubt.

Week by week

Ohio State

Wk 1: W 56-3 vs Ball State▲53Ball StateWk 2: L 23-24 at Texas▼1TexasWk 3: W 59-3 vs Kent State▲56Kent State
  • Wk 1Wvs Ball State56-3
  • Wk 2Lat Texas23-24
  • Wk 3Wvs Kent State59-3

Illinois

Wk 1: W 42-23 vs UAB▲19UABWk 2: L 27-31 vs Duke▼4DukeWk 3: W 48-10 vs Southern Illinois▲38S. Illinois
  • Wk 1Wvs UAB42-23
  • Wk 2Lvs Duke27-31
  • Wk 3Wvs Southern Illinois48-10

Power rating by week

Ohio State is rated 14.5 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

209-2Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Ohio StateIllinois

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Ohio State’s passing EPA against Illinois, 87 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Ohio State’s EPA/play against Illinois’s defense

    82 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ohio State offense, 87th percentile · Illinois defense, 5th

  2. Ohio State’s passing EPA against Illinois’s defense

    87 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ohio State offense, 92nd percentile · Illinois defense, 5th

  3. Ohio State’s explosive plays against Illinois’s defense

    40 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ohio State offense, 75th percentile · Illinois defense, 35th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

IllinoisOhio State
EPA/play, offense
Illinois · 84Ohio State · 87
EPA/play, defense
Illinois · 5Ohio State · 95
Success rate, offense
Illinois · 92Ohio State · 87
Success rate, defense
Illinois · 11Ohio State · 90
Explosive-play rate, offense
Illinois · 60Ohio State · 75
Explosive-play rate, defense
Illinois · 35Ohio State · 79
Rush EPA, offense
Illinois · 86Ohio State · 49
Rush EPA, defense
Illinois · 24Ohio State · 92
Pass EPA, offense
Illinois · 78Ohio State · 92
Pass EPA, defense
Illinois · 5Ohio State · 89

The series

Ohio State leads the series 70-30-4

104 meetings since 1902 · Ohio State has won the last 10

Ohio State wonIllinois won1902: tie1904: Illinois by 461914: Illinois by 371915: tie1916: Ohio State by 11917: Ohio State by 131918: Illinois by 131919: Illinois by 21920: Ohio State by 71921: Illinois by 71922: Ohio State by 31923: Illinois by 91924: Illinois by 71925: Illinois by 51926: Ohio State by 11927: Illinois by 131928: Illinois by 81929: Illinois by 271930: Ohio State by 31931: Ohio State by 401932: Ohio State by 31933: Ohio State by 11934: Illinois by 11935: Ohio State by 61936: Ohio State by 131937: Ohio State by 191938: Ohio State by 181939: Ohio State by 211940: Ohio State by 81941: Ohio State by 51942: Ohio State by 241943: Ohio State by 31944: Ohio State by 141945: Ohio State by 251946: Illinois by 91947: Illinois by 211948: Ohio State by 271949: Ohio State by 131950: Illinois by 71951: tie1952: Ohio State by 201953: Illinois by 211954: Ohio State by 331955: Ohio State by 151956: Ohio State by 201957: Ohio State by 141958: Ohio State by 61959: Illinois by 91960: Ohio State by 271961: Ohio State by 441962: Ohio State by 361963: tie1964: Ohio State by 261965: Ohio State by 141966: Illinois by 11967: Illinois by 41968: Ohio State by 71969: Ohio State by 411970: Ohio State by 191971: Ohio State by 141972: Ohio State by 191973: Ohio State by 301974: Ohio State by 421975: Ohio State by 371976: Ohio State by 321977: Ohio State by 351978: Ohio State by 381979: Ohio State by 371980: Ohio State by 71981: Ohio State by 71982: Ohio State by 51983: Illinois by 41984: Ohio State by 71985: Illinois by 31986: Ohio State by 141987: Ohio State by 41988: Illinois by 191989: Illinois by 201990: Illinois by 111991: Illinois by 31992: Illinois by 21993: Ohio State by 81994: Illinois by 141995: Ohio State by 381996: Ohio State by 481997: Ohio State by 351998: Ohio State by 411999: Illinois by 262000: Ohio State by 32001: Illinois by 122002: Ohio State by 72005: Ohio State by 382006: Ohio State by 72007: Illinois by 72008: Ohio State by 102009: Ohio State by 302010: Ohio State by 112011: Ohio State by 102012: Ohio State by 302013: Ohio State by 252014: Ohio State by 412015: Ohio State by 252017: Ohio State by 382025: Ohio State by 1819022025
  • 2025Ohio State 34-16Ohio State won 34-16 at Illinois. Chance to win started at 82%, low 81%, high better than 99%.
  • 2017Ohio State 52-14
  • 2015Ohio State 28-3
  • 2014Ohio State 55-14
  • 2013Ohio State 60-35

Each line is Ohio State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Ohio State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (23rd among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

50-50Model 96% · Line 98%Ohio State fans · 23rdIllinois fans · 39thIllinoisOhio State

Ohio State favored by 25.5 · Total 53.5

How games like this usually go

Ohio State by 25.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Illinois.

opened −27.5now −25.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 54.5now 53.5

Spread: −27.5 → −25.5 · Total: 54.5 → 53.5

The books’ cut: 3.4%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 69° at kickoff.

Illinois at Ohio State · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Ohio Stadium, Columbus

  • 69°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 100weather score, Ideal

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Ohio Stadium that day, a 2 pm, 3:30 pm or 7 pm kickoff would have scored 98, against 100 at noon.

  • noon: 100, Ideal (this game)
  • 12:45 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 2 pm: 98, Comfortable
  • 3:30 pm: 98, Comfortable
  • 4 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 5 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 6 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 98, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Ohio State is worth +6.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 86th percentile.

95% at home, 86% on the road against FBS opponents (53-3 home, 32-5 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.6 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 276 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Big Ten standings