The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Kansas 33%
Win out <1% · expect 0.6 of 4 more wins
West Virginia's chance to win each game left, from our model: Texas Tech 15%, Kansas 33%, Houston 10%, Utah 5%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 45% to 76%, peaking at 85% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 8th in the Big 12 · 2-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Michael Hawkins Jr. 1,598 · Rushing Cam Cook 923 · Receiving DJ Epps 556 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
Follow West Virginia:athletics siteBig 12XInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #182 | #231 | −21✗ −14 | Coastal Carolina | W 31-24 139 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hawkins Jr. 132 · Rush Cook 142 · Rec Weaver 49 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #188 | #155 | −41.5✓ +3.5 | UT Martin | W 52-7 133 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hawkins Jr. 155 · Rush Hawkins Jr. 96 · Rec Epps 112 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #165 | #51 | +10.5✓ +21.5 | Virginia (N)Top 25 win | W 38-27 138 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hawkins Jr. 190 · Rush Hawkins Jr. 123 · Rec Epps 92 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #137 | #192 | −1.5✗ −18.5 | Oklahoma State | L 24-41 156 | 3-1 | 0-1 | Pass Hawkins Jr. 132 · Rush Cook 193 · Rec Epps 39 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #150 | #108 | +3= | @Iowa State | L 42-45 139 Loud | 3-2 | 0-2 | Pass Hawkins Jr. 227 · Rush Hawkins Jr. 149 · Rec Epps 114 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #158 | #20 | +3.5✗ −17.5 | Arizona | L 31-52 155 | 3-3 | 0-3 | Pass Hawkins Jr. 219 · Rush Cook 141 · Rec Strachan 121 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #153 | #92 | −1.5✓ +1.5 | Cincinnati | W 45-42 149 Loud | 4-3 | 1-3 | Pass Hawkins Jr. 464 · Rush Hawkins Jr. 77 · Rec Epps 163 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #147 | #35 | +10✓ +14 | @TCU | W 24-20 140 | 5-3 | 2-3 | Pass Hawkins Jr. 79 · Rush Cook 90 · Rec Strachan 24 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | #129 | #13 | +17.5 | @Texas Tech | 9:30 pm ET · ESPN15% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #132 | #65 | Kansas | time TBA33% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Houston | time TBA10% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | @Utah | 9 pm ET · FOX | ||||||
Win chances are our model for West Virginia, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for West Virginia: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | @TCU | W 24-20 | 265 | 1 | 22:24 | +0.116 | 37.7% | 1.15 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | Cincinnati | W 45-42 | 598 | 0 | 28:04 | +0.420 | 45.7% | 1.53 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 10 | Arizona | L 31-52 | 522 | 2 | 35:50 | -0.104 | 37.1% | 1.32 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @Iowa State | L 42-45 | 518 | 2 | 21:46 | +0.366 | 45.3% | 1.69 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | Oklahoma State | L 24-41 | 467 | 1 | 31:04 | -0.047 | 43.7% | 1.09 | |
| Sep 19 | Virginia | W 38-27 | 437 | 0 | 26:53 | +0.296 | 40.6% | 1.40 | |
| Sep 12 | UT Martin | W 52-7 | 525 | 1 | 25:16 | +0.454 | 55.6% | 1.35 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Coastal Carolina | W 31-24 | 413 | 1 | 32:56 | +0.125 | 41.6% | 1.02 | One-score win |
| Season average (8 games) | 468 | 1.0 | +0.203 | 43.4% | 1.32 | ||||
West Virginia's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last two.
The only difference is our Thursday routine is going to change because we’re flying out Thursday, so we will practice Thursday morning
Range of outcomes · West Virginia · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 50%; 6 wins 40%; 7 wins 9%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
West Virginia is an entire state's only big-time team, and it just hired back the coach who broke its heart in 2007 and bolted — Rich Rodriguez, home in Morgantown to finish what the Backyard Brawl interrupted.
Mountaineer fans are tired of their state's only major team being treated as an afterthought, a hard place to recruit, a name from the past. They say Morgantown is the loudest Saturday nobody…
West Virginia · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Cool. Bring a jacket.
West Virginia at Texas Tech · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 9:30 pm ET · ESPN · Jones AT&T Stadium.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
This game is at Jones AT&T Stadium. The kickoff times below are for Milan Puskar Stadium, West Virginia's home stadium.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
West Virginia is the state's program, there's no other Power-5 football team in the entire state, and that geographic monopoly makes Morgantown the loudest Saturday in the Big 12.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
34th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · West Virginia · 2026