West Virginia 38-27 Virginia (Sep 19, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: West Virginia · Virginia

Duke’s Mayo Classic

West Virginia3-038

No. 25 Virginia2-127Final

Sat, Sep 19 · Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C. (neutral site) · Crowd 39,377

West Virginia beat No. 25 Virginia 38-27 as a 10.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 8%.

Winners have been down to 8% or less in about 1 of every 13 games since 2018.

We had Virginia favored. West Virginia won.

Next: West Virginia lost to Oklahoma State 41-24, Sat Sep 26

Next: Virginia beat Delaware 42-3, Sat Sep 26

Top comment in the game thread

The best part of Virginia went west in 1863

Q4 4:55 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Hawkins 21-yd TD pass to Epps, West Virginia goes ahead 28-21 (Q3, 0:12). West Virginia went from 34% to 58% to win. Fans right then: “It wasn't almost a facemask, it was facemask.” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave West Virginia a 14% chance, and the closing betting line (West Virginia was a 10.5-point underdog) put it at 20%.

FinalWest Virginia 38-27 VirginiaWest Virginia wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 0:26Hawkins 15-yd TD run, West Virginia goes ahead 21-14West Virginia 29% → 48% (+19)
2Q3 0:12Hawkins 21-yd TD pass to Epps, West Virginia goes ahead 28-21West Virginia 34% → 58% (+24)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 0:26Hawkins 15-yd TD run, West Virginia goes ahead 21-14Virginia 71% → 52% (−19)
2Q3 0:12Hawkins 21-yd TD pass to Epps, West Virginia goes ahead 28-21Virginia 66% → 42% (−24)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q4 13:07Fans argue officials missed a facemask penalty on Virginia's Middlebrook runIt wasn't almost a facemask, it was facemask.r/CFB game threadThese refs absolutely do not give af about a facemask.r/CFB game thread
Q4 5:24Hawkins runs for a touchdown as West Virginia fans celebrate a ranked winThis is such a copout comment but WVU has been a pet team of mine since the 2018 Grier year so after tonight I’m unironically giddy to root for Hawkins and this offense again.r/CFB game thread
Q4 4:55WVU fans celebrate as Pribula is sacked and turnover on downs occursQuoted at the top of the page.Virginia you fools. Everyone knows we are the true master of the Duke’s Mayo!r/CFB game thread

West Virginia’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Virginia -10.5), at 18% for West Virginia (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Virginia or West Virginia flair (435 and 798); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show West Virginia’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

West Virginia scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Virginia on 4 of its 13.

West Virginia’s drives are teal, Virginia’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Virginia’s side

Virginia’s best moment: Pribula 1-yd TD pass to Middlebrook, ties it 21-21 (Q3 7:09). It lifted Virginia’s win chance by 18 points.

How Virginia fans took it: “GG. Hope it's a great season for WVU” r/CFB game thread

“This game comes down to a turnover, calling it now”

A West Virginia fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

The loudest stretch was the finish.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was steady.

The winner fell to 7%.

What it cost

West Virginia’s chance to make the playoff rose from 1% to 2%.

Make the playoff

West Virginia · won1% → ▲2%

Virginia · lost5% → 5%

Win the conference

West Virginia · won1% → ▲2%

Virginia · lost4% → ▲5%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

West Virginia 38, Virginia 27

West Virginia covered +10.5 by 21.5. The total, 65, went over 51.5.

Team totals	West Virginia	Virginia
Total yards	437	354
Passing	10 of 17, 190 yds	21 of 33, 197 yds
Rushing	51 for 247 yds	37 for 157 yds
First downs	21	18
Third down	7 of 15	6 of 16
Fourth down	1 of 1	2 of 3
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	7 for 52 yds	6 for 58 yds
Time of possession	26:53	33:07

West Virginia leaders

Passing Michael Hawkins Jr. 10 of 17, 190 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Michael Hawkins Jr. 18 for 123 yds, 3 TD; Cam Cook 30 for 123 yds
Receiving DJ Epps 3 for 92 yds, 2 TD; Jaden Bray 2 for 67 yds

Virginia leaders

Passing Beau Pribula 21 of 33, 197 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Jekail Middlebrook 17 for 75 yds, 1 TD; Xavier Brown 8 for 71 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Xay Davis 3 for 51 yds; Dakota Twitty 4 for 46 yds

No rain and calm

85° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 7 mph from the east, gusts to 17

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 0:12 left10:02 p.m.

West Virginia 28, Virginia 21 · Virginia 42% to win

no rain · wind 8 mph from the east · 82°

Hawkins 21-yd TD pass to Epps, West Virginia goes ahead 28-21

Measured at Charlotte / Douglas airport, 5.7 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

West Virginia · 2-0

Rated 182nd in our preseason ratings, 165th now, up 17 spots.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 52-7 vs UT Martin #171 of 668

won by 45 as a 41.5-point favorite

W 31-24 vs Coastal Carolina #228 of 668

won by 7 as a 21-point favorite

Last two games

Virginia · 2-0

Rated 56th in our preseason ratings, 51st now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 59-3 vs Norfolk State #225 of 668

won by 56 as a 47.5-point favorite

W 34-8 vs NC State #46 of 668

won by 26 as a 4-point favorite

Week by week

Virginia

Wk 1Wvs NC State34-8
Wk 2Wvs Norfolk State59-3

West Virginia

Wk 1Wvs Coastal Carolina31-24
Wk 2Wvs UT Martin52-7

Power rating by week

Virginia is rated 10.0 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Virginia’s passing EPA against West Virginia, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Virginia’s passing EPA against West Virginia’s defense
Virginia offense, 63rd percentile · West Virginia defense, 0th
Virginia’s EPA/play against West Virginia’s defense
Virginia offense, 56th percentile · West Virginia defense, 3rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

West VirginiaVirginia

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Virginia leads the series 12-9-1

22 meetings since 1921 · Virginia has won the last 3

2002 · neutral siteVirginia 48-22
1985Virginia 27-7
1984Virginia 27-7
1981West Virginia 32-18
1980West Virginia 45-21

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

West Virginia fans are in a better mood than Virginia fans (54th vs 28th among FBS fanbases), even with Virginia favored.

Virginia favored by 10.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Virginia by 10.5, on the usual path until Q3 0:12

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Virginia.

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

West Virginia upsets No. 25 Virginia 38-27