Virginia 34-8 NC State (Aug 29, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: NC State · Virginia

NC State0-18

Virginia1-034Final

Sat, Aug 29 · Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va. · Crowd 62,779

Virginia beat NC State 34-8.

We had NC State favored. Virginia won.

Next: NC State beat Richmond 73-0, Fri Sep 11

Next: Virginia beat Norfolk State 59-3, Fri Sep 11

Top comment in the game thread

If you don't like coming out flat after unearned preseason hype you don't like NC State football.

Q3 13:35 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Aug 29

How it swung

The turning point: Brown 1-yd TD run, Virginia leads 10-0 (Q1, 2:37). Virginia went from 75% to 91% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Virginia a 48% chance, and the closing betting line (Virginia was a 4-point favorite) put it at 63%.

Favored the whole way: Virginia never fell below 64%.

NC State never had better than a 35% chance.

FinalVirginia 34-8 NC StateVirginia wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The play that swung it

1Q1 2:37Brown 1-yd TD run, Virginia leads 10-0Virginia 75% → 91% (+16)

The play that swung it

1Q1 2:37Brown 1-yd TD run, Virginia leads 10-0NC State 25% → 9% (−16)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 13:47ESPN broadcast cuts to black screen instead of showing replayThey went to black instead of their replayr/CFB game threadWow great replay ESPN!r/CFB game thread
Q2 11:54Pribula throws a touchdown pass to Brown, extending Virginia's lead to 17-0Can someone explain that play to me? Why did Pribula let go of the football??r/CFB game threadAnd there's all those passing yards Pribula was missing. Maybe I'm biased but I think Mizzeww fans are gonna regret him leaving.r/CFB game thread
Q2 3:35Bailey fumbles in the red zone, giving Virginia the ballI was downvoted for saying CJ Bailey sucks but here we are. Dudes looked like trash all day. But he carry’s himself with a lot of swag so that’s coolr/CFB game thread
Q3 13:35Pribula throws deep touchdown pass to Martin, extending Virginia lead to 24-0Quoted at the top of the page.

Virginia’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Virginia -4), at 68% for Virginia (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Virginia or NC State flair (303 and 492); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Virginia’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Virginia scored on 6 of its 12 drives; NC State on 1 of its 12.

Virginia’s drives are teal, NC State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“This is Charlottesville we play 1926 ball here”

A Virginia fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans were loudest in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Virginia fans

pribula“Can someone explain that play to me? Why did Pribula let go of the football??”

NC State fans

doeren“Things are not going to improve until Dave Doeren is gone. Idk what other NC State fans were expecting.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: run, now, throw, need.

Box score

Virginia 34, NC State 8

Virginia covered −4 by 22. The total, 42, stayed under 50.5.

Team totals	NC State	Virginia
Total yards	168	413
Passing	15 of 27, 92 yds	9 of 11, 155 yds
Rushing	24 for 76 yds	57 for 258 yds
First downs	10	19
Third down	4 of 13	3 of 14
Fourth down	0 of 1	4 of 4
Turnovers	2	0
Penalties	2 for 13 yds	5 for 51 yds
Time of possession	21:57	38:03

NC State leaders

Passing CJ Bailey 12 of 23, 84 yds, 1 INT
Rushing CJ Bailey 10 for 33 yds; Will Wilson 6 for 21 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Vander Ploog 2 for 25 yds; Joshisa Trader 2 for 19 yds

Virginia leaders

Passing Beau Pribula 9 of 11, 155 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Beau Pribula 15 for 110 yds; Jekail Middlebrook 15 for 64 yds
Receiving Xavier Brown 2 for 58 yds, 1 TD; Dashawn Martin 1 for 47 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

80° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the east, gusts to 13

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 64 other games played at Scott Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window).

Game-day temperatures at Scott Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 2:37 left4:07 p.m.

NC State 0, Virginia 10 · Virginia 91% to win

no rain · wind 6 mph from the east · 80°

Brown 1-yd TD run, Virginia leads 10-0

Measured at Charlottesville airport, 8.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

NC State · 8-5

Rated 44th in our preseason ratings.

W 31-7 vs MemphisTop 25 #66 of 667

won by 24 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 42-19 vs North Carolina #115 of 667

won by 23 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 21-11 vs Florida StateTop 25 #31 of 667

won by 10 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 7-41 @ MiamiTop 25 #7 of 667

lost by 34 as a 16.5-point underdog

W 48-36 vs Georgia TechTop 25 #39 of 667

won by 12 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 34-53 @ PittsburghTop 25 #39 of 667

lost by 19 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 7-36 @ Notre DameTop 25 #2 of 667

lost by 29 as a 24.5-point underdog

W 56-10 vs Campbell #253 of 667

won by 46 as a 41.5-point favorite

L 21-23 vs Virginia Tech #68 of 667

lost by 2 as a 10.5-point favorite

L 33-45 @ Duke #65 of 667

lost by 12 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 34-24 @ Wake Forest #87 of 667

won by 10 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 35-31 vs VirginiaTop 25 #62 of 667

won by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 24-17 vs East Carolina #78 of 667

won by 7 as a 13.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Virginia · 11-3

Rated 56th in our preseason ratings.

W 13-7 @ MissouriTop 25 #20 of 667

won by 6 as a 4-point underdog

L 20-27 vs Duke #58 of 667

lost by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 27-7 vs Virginia Tech #80 of 667

won by 20 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 34-17 @ Duke #65 of 667

won by 17 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 9-16 vs Wake Forest #55 of 667

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 31-21 @ California #85 of 667

won by 10 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 17-16 @ North Carolina #89 of 667

won by 1 as a 12.5-point favorite

W 22-20 vs Washington State #83 of 667

won by 2 as a 16.5-point favorite

W 30-27 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #31 of 667

won by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 46-38 vs Florida StateTop 25 #31 of 667

won by 8 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 48-20 vs Stanford #89 of 667

won by 28 as a 16.5-point favorite

W 55-16 vs William & Mary #176 of 667

won by 39 as a 29.5-point favorite

L 31-35 @ NC State #47 of 667

lost by 4 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 48-7 vs Coastal Carolina #111 of 667

won by 41 as a 13.5-point favorite

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: NC State’s explosive plays against Virginia, 71 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

NC State’s explosive plays against Virginia’s defense
NC State offense, 23rd percentile · Virginia defense, 94th
Virginia’s passing EPA against NC State’s defense
Virginia offense, 63rd percentile · NC State defense, 8th
Virginia’s EPA/play against NC State’s defense
Virginia offense, 56th percentile · NC State defense, 24th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

NC StateVirginia

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

NC State leads the series 38-22

60 meetings since 1904 · NC State has won the last 4

2025NC State 35-31
2023NC State 24-21
2020NC State 38-21
2018NC State 35-21
2012Virginia 33-6

Each line is Virginia’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Virginia fans are in a better mood than NC State fans (36th vs 20th among FBS fanbases), even with NC State favored.

Virginia favored by 4 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Virginia by 4, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Virginia.

The total fell 4 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Virginia is worth +5.1 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 66th percentile.

62% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (29-18 home, 14-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 155 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

NC State 24, Virginia 21Sep 22, 2023

Virginia beats NC State 34-8