UL Monroe upsets Troy 21-14
UL Monroe beat Troy 21-14 as a 13.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 1%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 1% or less in about 1 of every 810 games since 2018.
We had Troy favored. UL Monroe won.
Next: UL Monroe vs Southern Miss, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · UL Monroe underdog by 3.5
Next: Troy at James Madison, Thu Oct 29 · 7:30 PM ET · Troy underdog by 21
How it swung
The turning point: Armenta 16-yd TD pass to Gilliam, UL Monroe goes ahead 15-14 (Q4, 0:15). UL Monroe went from 10% to 75% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave UL Monroe an 11% chance, and the closing betting line (UL Monroe was a 13.5-point underdog) put it at 14%.
UL Monroe · Q4 0:15Fumble return TDUL Monroe · Q4 0:00UL Monroe 21-14 Troy
UL Monroe wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Troy 14-21 UL MonroeTroy lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:15Armenta 16-yd TD pass to Gilliam, UL Monroe goes ahead 15-14UL Monroe 10% → 75% (+65)
- 2Q4 0:00FumblePullen 0-yd fumble return TD, UL Monroe leads 21-14UL Monroe 85% → 100% (+15)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:15Armenta 16-yd TD pass to Gilliam, UL Monroe goes ahead 15-14Troy 90% → 25% (−65)
- 2Q4 0:00FumblePullen 0-yd fumble return TD, UL Monroe leads 21-14Troy 15% → 0% (−15)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Troy -13.5), at 13% for UL Monroe (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
UL Monroe scored on 3 of its 12 drives; Troy on 2 of its 14.
UL Monroe’s drives are teal, Troy’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
The winner was given almost no chance at its low point.
What it cost
Troy’s chance to win the conference fell from 4% to 1%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Troy plays at James Madison on Thu Oct 29 with a 1% chance to win the conference.
Box score
UL Monroe 21, Troy 14
UL Monroe covered +13.5 by 20.5. The total, 35, stayed under 50.5.
| Team totals | UL Monroe | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 243 | 200 |
| Passing | 17 of 31, 149 yds | 9 of 18, 47 yds |
| Rushing | 30 for 94 yds | 47 for 153 yds |
| First downs | 17 | 12 |
| Third down | 4 of 15 | 3 of 16 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Penalties | 3 for 30 yds | 5 for 50 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:09 | 32:51 |
UL Monroe leaders
- Passing Aidan Armenta 13 of 22, 147 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Zachary Palmer-Smith 11 for 51 yds; CJ Phillip 5 for 12 yds
- Receiving JP Coulter 5 for 32 yds; Darrion Gilliam 2 for 30 yds, 1 TD
Troy leaders
- Passing Will Crowder 6 of 14, 50 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Jordan Lovett 17 for 70 yds; Gavin Griffin 11 for 39 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving TJ Lott 1 for 32 yds; Noreel White 1 for 12 yds
No rain and calm
74° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 8 mph from the northeast, gusts to 21
Game-day temperatures at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Troy Municipal airport, 5.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
UL Monroe · 0-6
Rated 153rd in our preseason ratings, 225th now.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Troy · 3-3
Rated 113th in our preseason ratings, 111th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Troy
- Wk 2Wvs Alabama State34-17
- Wk 3Lat Missouri17-27
- Wk 4Lat Utah State10-21
- Wk 6Wvs Southern Miss55-34
- Wk 7Lat Louisiana6-33
UL Monroe
- Wk 2Lat UAB20-26
- Wk 3Lvs SE Louisiana35-38
- Wk 4Lvs Florida Atlantic17-45
- Wk 5Lat South Alabama35-52
- Wk 7Lvs Louisiana Tech0-24
Power rating by week
Troy is rated 8.0 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: UL Monroe’s passing EPA against Troy, 57 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
UL Monroe’s passing EPA against Troy’s defense
UL Monroe offense, 9th percentile · Troy defense, 66th
UL Monroe’s EPA/play against Troy’s defense
UL Monroe offense, 7th percentile · Troy defense, 47th
Troy’s explosive plays against UL Monroe’s defense
Troy offense, 45th percentile · UL Monroe defense, 75th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Troy leads the series 11-8
19 meetings since 1995 · Troy won the last meeting
- 2025Troy 37-14
- 2024UL Monroe 13-9
- 2023Troy 45-14
- 2022Troy 34-16
- 2021UL Monroe 29-16
Each line is Troy’s chance to win through that meeting. Troy is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Troy’s chances here.
Troy favored by 13.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Troy by 13.5, on the usual path until 0:15 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward UL Monroe.
Spread: −17.5 → −13.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Troy is worth +2.6 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 22nd percentile.
61% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (27-17 home, 25-27 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.8 at home vs. away over 105 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 361 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- UL Monroe 29, Troy 16Sep 25, 2021
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.