cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Donald Chaney Jr. /Louisville

Donald Chaney Jr.

RB · Louisville · Jr · #21

Limited signal — not enough coverage for a story yet.

CAREER COMPLETELouisville 2024 — college career complete

RB · LOUISVILLE · ACC

Donald Chaney Jr.

  • 3
  • #21
  • 5-11 | 220 lb
  • Homestead, FL

CFB Zeitgeist RB Score

Awaiting

Heisman Heat

#361

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R02 · Deep reserve

Deep reserve. In the program, working up the two-deep.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2021–2024
44.02021
8.02022
4782023
1782024

+305%

Up 305% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★
#115 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2021–2024
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB
Class3
Jersey21
Measurements5-11 | 220 lb
HometownHomestead, FL
Primary teamLouisville

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 115 recruit
Composite rating 0.9496 HighSchool
Signed with Miami 2020
Origin Belen Jesuit Prep Miami, FL, USA
Class Profile Context
2020 4-star | 0.9496 No. 115 recruit | HighSchool | Miami

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#361Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#397Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to Miami

Composite

0.9496

#115 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Donald Chaney Jr.

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Donald Chaney Jr.

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Scenario Explorer

Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Donald Chaney Jr.'s story is about how role and output meet each other. For Louisville, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #361 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 9.5% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 115 recruit

2024 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2024 season snapshot | final

2024 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 240 178 rush | 62 rec | #358/735 (51st pct)
Rush TD 3 50 carries | #204/739 (73rd pct)
Yards/carry 3.6 Per-rush efficiency | #561/735 (24th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.

Balanced profile

2024 Season · Final

2024 season snapshot | final

Rushing

CAR
50 58th
YDS
178 51st
YPC
3.6 24th
TD
3 73rd

Receiving

REC
7 51st
YDS
62 55th
YPR
8.9 69th
TD
0 70th

Game Log

Week-by-week box

No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2021Miami7-5HC: Jess Simpson · Balanced
2022Miami5-7HC: Mario Cristobal · Balanced
2023Miami7-6HC: Mario Cristobal · Balanced
2024Louisville9-4HC: Jeff Brohm · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2024Louisville501783.63--
2023Miami944785.12--
2022Miami284.00--
2021Miami11444.01--
Career4 loaded seasons1577084.56--
SeasonTeam
2024Louisville7628.90--
2023Miami5153.00--
2022Miami----------
2021Miami144.00--
Career4 loaded seasons13816.20--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 7 62 rec yds | #270/552 (51st pct)
Usage 9.5% 19.1% rush share | #332/738 (55th pct)
Rushing WEPA +0.18 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #84/362 (77th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Rushing Rushing yards 178 #358/735 51st pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rush TD 3 #204/739 73rd pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing Yards / carry 3.6 #561/735 24th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receptions 7 #270/552 51st pct Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving yards 62 #245/548 55th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Value Rushing WEPA +0.18 #84/362 77th pct Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 49 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage Role share 9.5% #332/738 55th pct Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing Carries 50 #313/739 58th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rushing LONG 27 #321/733 56th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving LONG 19 #248/540 54th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Yards / catch 8.9 #173/548 69th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #169/552 70th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Usage Rush share 19.1% #272/738 63rd pct Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage Standard-down usage 11.5% #305/738 59th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage 1st-down usage 9.5% #369/738 50th pct Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage 2nd-down usage 8.8% #389/738 47th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage 3rd-down usage 8.4% #267/738 64th pct Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Passing-down usage 4.6% #478/738 35th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage Pass share 1.7% #433/738 41st pct Air-game usagevs FBS RB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits

Per-game splits

Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.

Box-score Savant card waits for a season-stat snapshot above the cohort floor. Returns once enough box-score volume lands.

Advanced Savant · RB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator returns once this player clears the Savant metric floor (4+ scored bars).
DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Jeff Brohm

Pass share

50.2%

414 pass / 410 run

Plays / game

63.4

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.0%

314 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2021–2024

2 coaches
2021
Scott Satterfield
Louisville
2022
Scott Satterfield
Louisville
2023
Jeff Brohm
Louisville
era →
2024
Jeff Brohm
Louisville

Coaching transition mid-career: Scott Satterfield → Jeff Brohm. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownHomestead, FL
Height5'11"
Weight220 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey21

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Louisville RB3 #361 #397 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | ACC
2023 Miami RB3 #644 #636 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | ACC
2022 Miami RB3 #2915 #3125 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | ACC
2021 Miami RB3 #1830 #1980 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | ACC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2024 Louisville ACC RB 3 No. 21 | 5-11 | 220 lb | Homestead, FL
2023 Miami ACC RB 3 No. 21 | 5-11 | 220 lb | Homestead, FL
2022 Miami ACC RB 3 No. 21 | 5-11 | 220 lb | Homestead, FL
2021 Miami ACC RB 3 No. 21 | 5-11 | 220 lb | Homestead, FL