No. 1 Texas beats UTSA 30-6 Team pages: UTSA · Texas
UTSA UTSA 2-1 6 TEX No. 1 Texas3-0 30 Final Sat, Sep 19 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas · Crowd 103,753 SECN+
No. 1 Texas beat UTSA 30-6. Share this game
We had Texas favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
These commentators are so anti Texas it’s insane lmao. “Great coverage” and it’s literally UTSA tackling Coleman while the ball is in the air
Q3 8:05 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19 How it swung Watch the plays Drives What it cost Box score Weather Before kickoff How it swung Before kickoff, our ratings gave Texas a 72% chance, and the closing betting line (Texas was a 29.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.
Texas led by 7 after the first quarter and by 17 at the half.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0 +24 +24 Favored the whole way: Texas never fell below 98%.
UTSA never had better than a 2% chance.
Final Texas 30-6 UTSA Texas won Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. Final UTSA 6-30 Texas UTSA lost Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. 50% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Texas Won 30-6 Scores Texas UTSA Texas fans: 6 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 2 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 2 comments a minute Texas fans: 5 comments a minute Texas fans: 2 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 3 comments a minute Texas fans: 0 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 2 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 5 comments a minute Texas fans: 6 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 3 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 2 comments a minute Texas fans: 3 comments a minute Texas fans: 6 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UTSA Texas fans: 6 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 2 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 2 comments a minute Texas fans: 5 comments a minute Texas fans: 2 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 3 comments a minute Texas fans: 0 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 2 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 5 comments a minute Texas fans: 6 comments a minute Texas fans: 1 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 3 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 2 comments a minute Texas fans: 3 comments a minute Texas fans: 6 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 4 comments a minute Texas fans: 2 comments a minute Texas fans: 3 comments a minute 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See it from UTSA’s side No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 11:26 Manning throws touchdown pass to Coleman as Texas extends lead to 17-3 I love Cam Coleman. r/CFB game thread Q3 8:05 Texas fans argue commentators are biased after no pass interference call on Manning pass to Coleman Quoted at the top of the page. Being a Texas fan is absolutely exhausting.. lmao r/CFB game thread Q3 4:39 Fans mock officials for throwing excessive flags during Texas drive Honestly I wouldn't mind if Texas got bumped in the rankings, they haven't looked good and I feel like the longhorns play better when they feel disrespected. r/CFB game thread UTSA is so good they’re making Texas look bad, can we all just agree to that narrative? Please! r/CFB game thread Q3 0:12 Texas fans criticize Manning's incomplete pass and uncalled pass interference back in my day they threw flags for pass interference r/CFB game thread Am I dumb and not understand pass interference? r/CFB game thread Q4 11:55 Fans call a roughing penalty on Texas soft and terrible I’m with Traylor. Wtf was that roughing call? Soft af. r/CFB game thread Absolutely awful flag r/CFB game thread Q4 8:57 Texas fans worry about Arch Manning's health after a hit That TD felt dirty considering the penalty that aided Texas. r/CFB game thread Texas’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chart Starts from the pregame line (Texas -29.5), at 98% for Texas (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Texas or UTSA flair (678 and 144); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to. Watch the plays The bar and the arrow show Texas’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Play all in order Q1, 14:51 McCown intercepted by Biles at the UTSA 30 unsportsmanlike conduct on Texas Q1, 14:51 · Texas 0, UTSA 0 0-0 score after the play 0-0 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q1, 13:34 Manning 24-yd TD pass to Coleman Texas goes ahead 7-0 Q1, 13:34 · Texas 7, UTSA 0 7-0 score after the play 7-0 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q2, 11:26 Manning 3-yd TD pass to Coleman Texas leads 17-3 Q2, 11:26 · Texas 17, UTSA 3 17-3 score after the play 17-3 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q4, 8:57 Cooper 1-yd TD run Texas leads 30-6 Q4, 8:57 · Texas 30, UTSA 6 30-6 score after the play 30-6 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive Texas scored on 6 of its 13 drives; UTSA on 2 of its 11.
Texas’s drives are teal, UTSA’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
own goal goal line Q1 UTSA: Interception, from 75 yards out to 75 Interception Texas: Touchdown, from 37 yards out to 0 Touchdown UTSA: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 16 Field goal Texas: Field goal, from 84 yards out to 34 Field goal UTSA: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77 Punt Q2 Texas: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0 Touchdown UTSA: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73 Punt Texas: Turned over on downs, from 55 yards out to 51 Downs UTSA: Punt, from 49 yards out to 48 Punt Texas: Punt, from 92 yards out to 63 Punt UTSA: Punt, from 75 yards out to 85 Punt Texas: Field goal, from 52 yards out to 16 Field goal Texas: Kickoff, from 65 yards out to 65 Kickoff Q3 Texas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 86 Punt UTSA: Field goal, from 35 yards out to 25 Field goal Texas: Punt, from 92 yards out to 73 Punt UTSA: Punt, from 79 yards out to 75 Punt Texas: Field goal, from 39 yards out to 5 Field goal UTSA: Punt, from 77 yards out to 78 Punt Texas: Turned over on downs, from 51 yards out to 14 Downs UTSA: Punt, from 86 yards out to 73 Punt Q4 Texas: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0 Touchdown UTSA: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68 Punt Texas: End of game, from 73 yards out to 31 End of game “Arch completely rattled against UTSA.” A Texas fan When fans got loud Busy
The loudest stretch came in the fourth quarter.
Jump to the loudest stretch
The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.
A large share of the loudest stretch was about the officiating.
First Second Third Fourth Texas fans UTSA fans usual What it cost Texas’s chance to make the playoff rose from 70% to 73%.
Make the playoff
UTSA · lost 0% → 0%
Texas · won 70% → ▲ 73% 70% ▲ 73%
Before the game (September 19, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score Texas 30, UTSA 6
UTSA covered +29.5 by 5.5. The total, 36, stayed under 58.5.
UTSA Texas Total yards UTSA 142 Texas 400 142 400 Passing yards UTSA 70 Texas 172 70 172 Rushing yards UTSA 72 Texas 228 72 228 First downs UTSA 9 Texas 27 9 27 Turnovers UTSA 1 Texas 0 1 0 Time of possession UTSA 23:09 Texas 36:51 23:09 36:51 Team totals UTSA Texas Total yards 142 400 Passing 14 of 23, 70 yds 18 of 35, 172 yds Rushing 24 for 72 yds 48 for 228 yds First downs 9 27 Third down 1 of 11 7 of 17 Fourth down 0 of 0 0 of 2 Turnovers 1 0 Penalties 12 for 115 yds 8 for 88 yds Time of possession 23:09 36:51
UTSA leaders Passing Owen McCown 14 of 23, 70 yds, 1 INTRushing Will Henderson III 10 for 38 yds; Brandon High 5 for 16 ydsReceiving Brandon High 3 for 20 yds; DJ Allen 2 for 15 ydsTexas leaders Passing Arch Manning 17 of 33, 164 yds, 2 TDRushing Daylan Smothers 10 for 54 yds; Arch Manning 9 for 50 ydsReceiving Cam Coleman 4 for 59 yds, 2 TD; Emmett Mosley V 3 for 28 ydsNo rain and calm 93° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the southeast, gusts to 14
September game-day temperatures at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Texas favored UTSA favored 100% Win chance Texas Rain inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind mph, average and gusts 20 mph 40 mph Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Texas favored UTSA favored Rain · inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind · miles per hour 20 40 Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
First quarter, 14:51 left7:03 p.m.
UTSA 0, Texas 0 · Texas 98% to win
no rain · wind 7 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 14 · 92°
McCown intercepted by Biles at the UTSA 30, unsportsmanlike conduct on Texas
Previous play Next play
Where this weather comes from Measured at Austin - City/camp Mabry airport, 3.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Matchups Biggest mismatch: UTSA’s explosive plays against Texas, 82 points Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
UTSA’s explosive plays against Texas’s defense
82 points weaker stronger 50th UTSA offense, 16th percentile · Texas defense, 98th
UTSA’s passing EPA against Texas’s defense
27 points weaker stronger 50th UTSA offense, 47th percentile · Texas defense, 74th
UTSA’s success rate against Texas’s defense
16 points weaker stronger 50th UTSA offense, 71st percentile · Texas defense, 87th
Season profile, all the rows Season profile UTSA Texas
EPA/play, offense
UTSA · 77 Texas · 20 EPA/play, defense
UTSA · 34 Texas · 76 Success rate, offense
UTSA · 71 Texas · 45 Success rate, defense
UTSA · 37 Texas · 87 Explosive-play rate, offense
UTSA · 16 Texas · 28 Explosive-play rate, defense
UTSA · 54 Texas · 98 Rush EPA, offense
UTSA · 82 Texas · 10 Rush EPA, defense
UTSA · 14 Texas · 78 Pass EPA, offense
UTSA · 47 Texas · 54 Pass EPA, defense
UTSA · 32 Texas · 74 The series Texas leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2022 · Texas has won the last 2
2024 Texas 56-7 Texas won 56-7 vs UTSA. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%. 2022 Texas 41-20 Texas won 41-20 vs UTSA. Chance to win started at 83%, low 42%, high better than 99%. Each line is Texas’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field The betting line, and the fans UTSA fans are in a better mood than Texas fans (73rd vs 37th among FBS fanbases), even with Texas favored.
50-50 Line · 99% UTSA fans · 73rd UTSA Texas Model · 72% Line · 99% Texas fans · 37th UTSA fans · 73rd Texas favored by 29.5 · Total 58.5
How games like this usually go Texas by 29.5, and it went to form 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Half of games 8 in 10 games This game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market The total rose 1 point.
opened 57.5 now 58.5 The books’ cut: 3.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff Hot and dry. Feels like 92° at kickoff.
UTSA at Texas · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin
92°feels like at kickoff Dry no rain at kickoff 74weather score, Rough Tied for the best of the day's 8 kickoff times At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium that day, a 2:30 pm kickoff would have scored 49, against 74 at 7 pm.
Harsh
Rough
Mixed
Comfortable
Ideal (100) 57 Rough 53 Rough 52 Rough 49 Harsh 51 Rough 66 Rough 72 Rough 74 Rough
11 am 11:45 am 1 pm 2:30 pm 3:30 pm 6 pm 6:30 pm 7 pm
11 am: 57, Rough 11:45 am: 53, Rough 1 pm: 52, Rough 2:30 pm: 49, Harsh 3:30 pm: 51, Rough 6 pm: 66, Rough 6:30 pm: 72, Rough 7 pm: 74, Rough (this game) Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field Texas is worth +7.3 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 95th percentile.
81% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (44-10 home, 22-13 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why ); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.4 at home vs. away over 89 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 75 miles to get here.