UTSA routs UT Rio Grande Valley 45-16

UT Rio Grande Valley1-116
UTSA1-045Final
Sat, Sep 5 · Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas · Crowd 33,403ESPN+

UTSA routed UT Rio Grande Valley 45-16.

We had UTSA favored. It won.

Next: UT Rio Grande Valley lost to Nicholls 31-28, Sat Sep 12

Next: UTSA beat Texas State 31-26, Sat Sep 12

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UTSA a 97% chance, and the closing betting line (UTSA was a 28.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

UTSA led by 7 after the first quarter and by 25 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+36+29
Pick-sixUTSA · Q2 12:4075-yard TD runUTSA · Q2 7:00
FinalUTSA 45-16 UT Rio Grande ValleyUTSA wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4UTSAWon45-16ScoresPick-six75-yard TD run
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4UTSAWon45-16ScoresPick-six75-yard TD run
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4UTSALowest 0%Lost16-45ScoresPick-six75-yard TD run
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4UTSALowest 0%Lost16-45ScoresPick-six75-yard TD run

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

UTSA’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (UTSA -28.5), at 97% for UTSA (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

UTSA scored on 6 of its 12 drives; UT Rio Grande Valley on 4 of its 13.

UTSA’s drives are teal, UT Rio Grande Valley’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1UT Rio Grande Valley: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 17Missed FGUTSA: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownUT Rio Grande Valley: Punt, from 80 yards out to 74PuntUTSA: Punt, from 63 yards out to 54PuntUT Rio Grande Valley: Turned over on downs, from 89 yards out to 57DownsUTSA: Touchdown, from 43 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2UT Rio Grande Valley: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 75 yards out to 54Interception TDUT Rio Grande Valley: Field goal, from 92 yards out to 24Field goalUTSA: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUT Rio Grande Valley: Turned over on downs, from 71 yards out to 39DownsUTSA: Field goal, from 61 yards out to 12Field goalUT Rio Grande Valley: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 10Field goalQ3UTSA: Punt, from 80 yards out to 60PuntUT Rio Grande Valley: Punt, from 98 yards out to 65PuntUTSA: Turned over on downs, from 65 yards out to 39DownsUT Rio Grande Valley: Punt, from 61 yards out to 52PuntUTSA: Missed field goal, from 82 yards out to 16Missed FGQ4UT Rio Grande Valley: Punt, from 80 yards out to 82PuntUTSA: Touchdown, from 61 yards out to 0TouchdownUT Rio Grande Valley: Interception, from 65 yards out to 65InterceptionUTSA: Punt, from 61 yards out to 59PuntUT Rio Grande Valley: Field goal, from 70 yards out to 23Field goalUTSA: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownUT Rio Grande Valley: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownUTSA: End of game, from 75 yards out to 76End of game

Box score

UTSA 45, UT Rio Grande Valley 16

UTSA covered −28.5 by 0.5. The total, 61, went over 59.5.

UT Rio Grande ValleyUTSATotal yardsUT Rio Grande Valley 422UTSA 525422525Passing yardsUT Rio Grande Valley 245UTSA 275245275Rushing yardsUT Rio Grande Valley 177UTSA 250177250First downsUT Rio Grande Valley 22UTSA 232223TurnoversUT Rio Grande Valley 2UTSA 020Time of possessionUT Rio Grande Valley 34:49UTSA 25:1134:4925:11
Team totalsUT Rio Grande ValleyUTSA
Total yards422525
Passing26 of 47, 245 yds22 of 29, 275 yds
Rushing34 for 177 yds29 for 250 yds
First downs2223
Third down7 of 183 of 9
Fourth down1 of 30 of 1
Turnovers20
Penalties13 for 105 yds11 for 115 yds
Time of possession34:4925:11

UT Rio Grande Valley leaders

  • Passing Garret Rangel 19 of 32, 152 yds
  • Rushing Broderick Taylor 6 for 73 yds; Brennan Carroll 4 for 47 yds
  • Receiving Jaydon Smith 2 for 68 yds; Corey Holmes 7 for 68 yds

UTSA leaders

  • Passing Owen McCown 22 of 27, 275 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Will Henderson III 9 for 99 yds, 1 TD; A'Marion Peterson 8 for 96 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving DJ Allen 3 for 116 yds, 1 TD; AJ Wilson 2 for 42 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

UT Rio Grande Valley · 9-3

Rated 138th in our preseason ratings, 138th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 33-14 vs East Texas A&M #222 of 667

W 28-13 @ McNeese #212 of 667

W 28-21 vs Nicholls #194 of 667

L 17-41 @ Stephen F. Austin #87 of 667

lost by 24 as a 10-point underdog

W 56-28 vs Incarnate Word #194 of 667

won by 28 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 21-23 @ Lamar #148 of 667

lost by 2 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 27-7 vs Houston Christian #228 of 667

L 31-45 @ SE Louisiana #139 of 667

lost by 14 as an 18-point underdog

W 61-13 vs Texas Wesleyan

UT Rio Grande Valley won 61-13 vs Texas Wesleyan. Chance to win started at 61%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

W 80-0 vs Langston

UT Rio Grande Valley won 80-0 vs Langston. Chance to win started at 63%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

W 27-21 @ Prairie View A&M #166 of 667

W 66-0 vs Sul Ross State #424 of 667

Last three games · 2025 season

UTSA · 7-6

Rated 18th in our preseason ratings.

W 57-20 vs Florida International #127 of 667

won by 37 as a 7.5-point favorite

UTSA won 57-20 vs Florida International. Chance to win started at 73%, low 30%, high better than 99%.

L 24-27 vs Army #111 of 667

lost by 3 as an 8.5-point favorite

UTSA lost 24-27 vs Army. Chance to win started at 76%, low 12%, high 93%.

W 58-24 vs East Carolina #59 of 667

won by 34 as a 2.5-point underdog

UTSA won 58-24 vs East Carolina. Chance to win started at 50%, low 46%, high better than 99%.

W 28-7 @ Charlotte #231 of 667

won by 21 as a 17.5-point favorite

UTSA won 28-7 at Charlotte. Chance to win started at 84%, low 79%, high better than 99%.

L 23-55 @ South FloridaTop 25 #19 of 667

lost by 32 as a 13.5-point underdog

UTSA lost 23-55 at South Florida. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 11%.

W 48-26 vs TulaneTop 25 #63 of 667

won by 22 as a 5.5-point underdog

UTSA won 48-26 vs Tulane. Chance to win started at 34%, low 30%, high better than 99%.

L 17-55 @ North TexasTop 25 #61 of 667

lost by 38 as a 3.5-point underdog

UTSA lost 17-55 at North Texas. Chance to win started at 42%, low under 1%, high 60%.

W 61-13 vs Rice #158 of 667

won by 48 as a 9.5-point favorite

UTSA won 61-13 vs Rice. Chance to win started at 81%, low 81%, high better than 99%.

L 21-27 @ Temple #114 of 667

lost by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite

UTSA lost 21-27 at Temple. Chance to win started at 61%, low 2%, high 91%.

W 17-16 @ Colorado State #97 of 667

won by 1 as a 5.5-point favorite

UTSA won 17-16 at Colorado State. Chance to win started at 57%, low 44%, high 96%.

W 48-20 vs Incarnate Word #136 of 667

won by 28 as a 21.5-point favorite

UTSA won 48-20 vs Incarnate Word. Chance to win started at 94%, low 92%, high better than 99%.

L 36-43 vs Texas State #64 of 667

lost by 7 as a 4.5-point favorite

UTSA lost 36-43 vs Texas State. Chance to win started at 72%, low 13%, high 72%.

L 24-42 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #19 of 667

lost by 18 as a 23.5-point underdog

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on UTSA’s chances here.

50-50Model 97% · Line 99%UT Rio Grande ValleyUTSA

UTSA favored by 28.5 · Total 59.5

How games like this usually go

UTSA by 28.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The books’ cut: 3.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UTSA is worth +7.8 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.

73% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (35-13 home, 22-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.1 at home vs. away over 105 games — outside the ±5.6 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 218 miles to get here.

Where next