Florida State beats Central Arkansas 34-7

Team pages: Central Arkansas · Florida State

Central Arkansas2-37
Florida State2-234Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Fla. · Crowd 67,277ACC Network

Florida State beat Central Arkansas 34-7.

We had Florida State favored. It won.

Next: Central Arkansas lost to Abilene Christian 20-14, Sat Oct 10

Next: Florida State beat Virginia 38-7, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida State a 90% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida State was a 45.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

Florida State led by 14 after the first quarter and by 17 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+27+27

Favored the whole way: Florida State never fell below 99%.

Central Arkansas never had better than a 1% chance.

FinalFlorida State 34-7 Central ArkansasFlorida State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won34-7Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won34-7Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost7-34Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost7-34Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Florida State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Florida State -45.5), at 100% for Florida State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Florida State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 14:16Daniels 29-yd TD pass to RobinsonFlorida State goes ahead 7-0Q1, 14:16 · Florida State 7, Central Arkansas 07-0score after the play7-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 6:56Kromah 6-yd TD runFlorida State leads 14-0Q1, 6:56 · Florida State 14, Central Arkansas 014-0score after the play14-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q1, 5:58Omolo sacked for a 8-yd lossQ1, 5:58 · Florida State 14, Central Arkansas 014-0score after the play14-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 0:20Daniels intercepted by Williams at the UCA24Q2, 0:20 · Florida State 24, Central Arkansas 724-7score after the play24-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q3, 5:50Daniels 34-yd TD pass to BoggsFlorida State leads 31-7Q3, 5:50 · Florida State 31, Central Arkansas 731-7score after the play31-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Florida State scored on 6 of its 9 drives; Central Arkansas on 1 of its 9.

Florida State’s drives are teal, Central Arkansas’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Florida State: Touchdown, from 45 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Arkansas: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 43DownsFlorida State: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Arkansas: Punt, from 79 yards out to 53PuntFlorida State: Field goal, from 85 yards out to 5Field goalQ2Central Arkansas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 53PuntFlorida State: Touchdown, from 88 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Arkansas: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida State: Interception, from 65 yards out to 30InterceptionCentral Arkansas: End of half, from 76 yards out to 63End of halfQ3Central Arkansas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 37PuntFlorida State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Arkansas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 76PuntFlorida State: Field goal, from 57 yards out to 13Field goalCentral Arkansas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 55PuntQ4Florida State: Punt, from 68 yards out to 53PuntCentral Arkansas: Turned over on downs, from 96 yards out to 23DownsFlorida State: End of game, from 77 yards out to 79End of game

Box score

Florida State 34, Central Arkansas 7

Central Arkansas covered +45.5 by 18.5. The total, 41, stayed under 62.5.

Central ArkansasFlorida StateTotal yardsCentral Arkansas 248Florida State 417248417Passing yardsCentral Arkansas 138Florida State 238138238Rushing yardsCentral Arkansas 110Florida State 179110179First downsCentral Arkansas 22Florida State 242224TurnoversCentral Arkansas 0Florida State 101Time of possessionCentral Arkansas 39:12Florida State 20:4839:1220:48
Team totalsCentral ArkansasFlorida State
Total yards248417
Passing15 of 30, 138 yds14 of 20, 238 yds
Rushing43 for 110 yds28 for 179 yds
First downs2224
Third down5 of 162 of 5
Fourth down2 of 40 of 0
Turnovers01
Penalties10 for 90 yds10 for 115 yds
Time of possession39:1220:48

Central Arkansas leaders

  • Passing Donovyn Omolo 15 of 30, 138 yds
  • Rushing Jalen Washington 18 for 71 yds, 1 TD; Cam Young 5 for 19 yds
  • Receiving Tyrell Pollard 4 for 41 yds; Dakarai Anderson 4 for 35 yds

Florida State leaders

  • Passing Ashton Daniels 12 of 18, 224 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Ousmane Kromah 11 for 86 yds, 2 TD; Tre Wisner 8 for 41 yds
  • Receiving Jayvan Boggs 6 for 122 yds, 1 TD; Duce Robinson 2 for 52 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

85° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Doak Campbell Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Florida State favoredCentral Arkansas favored100%Win chanceFlorida StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Florida State favoredCentral Arkansas favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:35 left3:04 p.m.
Central Arkansas 0, Florida State 0 · Florida State 100% to win
no rain · 85°
Kromah 1-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Tallahassee Rgnl airport, 4.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Central Arkansas · 2-2

Rated 180th in our preseason ratings, 207th now.

2-2 in its last 4, including a 12-point win over UT Martin as a 3-point underdog.

L 9-27 @ Southeast Missouri State #199 of 668

lost by 18 as a 4-point underdog

Central Arkansas lost 9-27 at Southeast Missouri State. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 36%.

W 59-20 vs Central Oklahoma #329 of 668

Central Arkansas won 59-20 vs Central Oklahoma. Chance to win started at 54%, low 47%, high better than 99%.

L 14-42 vs West Florida #262 of 668

lost by 28 as a 7.5-point favorite

Central Arkansas lost 14-42 vs West Florida. Chance to win started at 77%, low under 1%, high 77%.

W 36-24 @ UT Martin #155 of 668

won by 12 as a 3-point underdog

Central Arkansas won 36-24 at UT Martin. Chance to win started at 33%, low 22%, high 98%.

Last three games

Florida State · 1-2

Rated 82nd in our preseason ratings, 90th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 36-50 @ AlabamaTop 25 #16 of 668

lost by 14 as an 18.5-point underdog

Florida State lost 36-50 at Alabama. Chance to win started at 8%, low under 1%, high 50%.

L 24-27 vs SMUTop 25 #15 of 668

lost by 3 as a 3-point underdog

Florida State lost 24-27 vs SMU. Chance to win started at 48%, low under 1%, high 53%.

W 34-17 vs New Mexico State #148 of 668

won by 17 as a 30.5-point favorite

Florida State won 34-17 vs New Mexico State. Chance to win started at 98%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Florida State

Wk 1: W 34-17 vs New Mexico State▲17New Mexico StateWk 1: L 24-27 vs SMU▼3SMUWk 3: L 36-50 at Alabama▼14Alabama
  • Wk 1Wvs New Mexico State34-17
  • Wk 1Lvs SMU24-27
  • Wk 3Lat Alabama36-50

Central Arkansas

Wk 1: W 36-24 at UT Martin▲12UT MartinWk 1: L 14-42 vs West Florida▼28West FloridaWk 2: W 59-20 vs Central Oklahoma▲39C. OklahomaWk 3: L 9-27 at Southeast Missouri State▼18Southeast M…
  • Wk 1Wat UT Martin36-24
  • Wk 1Lvs West Florida14-42
  • Wk 2Wvs Central Oklahoma59-20
  • Wk 3Lat Southeast Missouri State9-27

Power rating by week

Florida State is rated 7.4 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-0-5-10Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Florida StateCentral Arkansas

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Florida State’s chances here.

50-50Model · 90%Line · 100%Central ArkansasFlorida State

Florida State favored by 45.5 · Total 62.5

How games like this usually go

Florida State by 45.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Florida State.

opened −42.5now −45.5

The total rose 3 points.

opened 59.5now 62.5

Spread: −42.5 → −45.5 · Total: 59.5 → 62.5

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 85° at kickoff.

Central Arkansas at Florida State · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee

  • 85°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 74weather score, Rough
  • Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At Doak Campbell Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 74 at 3:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

  • noon: 83, Mixed
  • 12:45 pm: 80, Mixed
  • 2 pm: 76, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 74, Rough (this game)
  • 4 pm: 75, Mixed
  • 5 pm: 87, Mixed
  • 6 pm: 97, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Florida State is worth +7.2 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 93rd percentile.

58% at home, 30% on the road against FBS opponents (29-21 home, 12-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.5 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 572 miles to get here.

Where next