The Zeitgeist List · coaching

David Braun

Followed Pat Fitzgerald. David Braun moved Northwestern from Regional Program I to National Program III in 4 seasons.

19–19
2023–now · 1 stint
Northwestern
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In his own words

We were out of sync a little bit
On3 · · the day of Northwestern's 2026 opener

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerNORTHWESTERNNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelNorthwestern, 2023: 8-5, Regional Program I2023Northwestern, 2024: 4-8, National Program III2024Northwestern, 2025: 7-6, National Program III2025Northwestern, 2026: in progress, National Program III2026+4.5One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached National Program in his 2nd career season — faster than 33% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #402 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Northwestern, 4 seasons (active)
+4.5
Regional Program I → National Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Northwestern2023–2026▼ 2.3pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Northwestern9.1pt#152 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–2 against his rivals. Just 1–2 against Bret Bielema.

Rivalry record
1–2
33.3% · 1 rival
One-score games
8–5
61.5% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–2
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Illinois1–233%
The toughest matchup
vs. Bret Bielema1–2
3 meetings, 2023–2025
’23 W · erased a 6-pt deficit’24 L · blew a 3-pt lead’25 L · blew a 3-pt lead
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–2 0.0%
Power Program
2–7 22.2%
National Program
5–7 41.7%
Regional Program
7–1 87.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.41
#284 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.01
#160 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2023–now
Northwesterncaretaker🏆 coach of the year
Regional Program I → National Program III
David Braun moved Northwestern from Regional Program I to National Program III in 4 seasons.

6th-best Northwestern tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-31.5 pts
#201 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
+6.2 pts
#76 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Pat Fitzgerald (2006–2022).

Season2023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record8–54–87–60–0
PostseasonW bowl—W bowl—
Recruiting rank#47#80#66#52
Style — pass rate
Pass rate45.952.745.743.6
Coordinators
OCMike BajakianZach LujanZach LujanChip Kelly
DC—Tim McGarigleTim McGarigleTim McGarigle
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense2153877
Defense82534234
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%44.547.245.137.0
Red-zone pass%38.845.235.8—
4th-down go%opp. territory18.922.936.6—
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
40
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
40
left via the portal
Net portal flow
0
#125 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Aidan Chiles On3 modeled · $1,200,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 252 lbs
across 30 of 40 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+11.9 lbs
#2 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#117 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: OH (4), IL (3), MI (3), TX (3), IN (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
56.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
58.1
position-weighted
Net
-2.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Aidan Chiles (QB) from Michigan State
Biggest loss: Brendan Sullivan (QB) to Iowa
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Zach Lujan → Chip Kelly · 2026
38th pct77th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 45.1% → 37.0% (-8.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 88% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
214 lbs
6′2″ avg · #356 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
208 lbs
5′10″ avg · #366 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
197 lbs
6′0″ avg · #197 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
248 lbs
6′4″ avg · #268 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
310 lbs
6′5″ avg · #316 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
271 lbs
6′4″ avg · #656 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
229 lbs
6′2″ avg · #366 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
195 lbs
6′0″ avg · #117 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Cornerback from high school
73%
#194 of 236 stints
Grows Safety from high school
88%
#195 of 218 stints
Postseason detail2023: Beat Utah 14–7 SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl2025: Beat Central Michigan 34–7 GameAbove Sports Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Peter Skoronski (2023), Adetomiwa Adebawore (2023), Cameron Mitchell (2023), Evan Hull (2023), Caleb Tiernan (2026), Evan Beerntsen (2026)

Coach of the Year: Big Ten Dave McClain Coach of the Year/Big Ten Hayes–Schembechler Coach of the Year (2023)

19–19