Northwestern: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2023–now

David Braun Steady ◆ COY

David Braun moved the Wildcats from Regional Program I to National Program III in 4 seasons.

2026 offense ranked in the 97th percentile nationally — elite

+4.5 pts over 4 seasons · top 15% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Skip Holtz’s East Carolina run (2005–2009)

6th-best Northwestern tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Pat Fitzgerald (2006–2022).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	8-5	4-8	7-6	6-2
Postseason	W bowl	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#47	#80	#66	#52
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	45.9	52.7	45.7	39.6
Coordinators
OC	Mike Bajakian	Zach Lujan	Zach Lujan	Chip Kelly
DC	—	Tim McGarigle	Tim McGarigle	Tim McGarigle
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	21	5	38	97
Defense	82	53	42	64
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	44.5	47.2	45.1	51.6
Red-zone pass%	38.8	45.2	35.8	37.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	18.9	22.9	36.6	26.1

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-31.5 pts

#201 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

+6.3 pts

#74 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

#125 of 187 FBS stints

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Aidan Chiles On3 modeled · $1,200,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)

6′3″, 252 lbs

across 30 of 40 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+12.2 lbs

#2 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#246 of 255 · bottom quarter

Top states: OH (4), IL (3), MI (3), TX (3), IN (2)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

56.0

position-weighted

Talent lost

58.1

position-weighted

Net

-2.2

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Aidan Chiles (QB) from Michigan State

Biggest loss: Brendan Sullivan (QB) to Iowa

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Zach Lujan → Chip Kelly · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 45.1% → 51.6% (+6.5 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 88% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

214 lbs

6′2″ avg · #356 of 767 · middle half

Running back

208 lbs

5′10″ avg · #366 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

197 lbs

6′0″ avg · #197 of 791 · top quarter

Tight end

248 lbs

6′4″ avg · #268 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

310 lbs

6′5″ avg · #316 of 779 · middle half

D-line

271 lbs

6′4″ avg · #656 of 753 · bottom quarter

Linebacker

229 lbs

6′2″ avg · #366 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

195 lbs

6′0″ avg · #117 of 771 · top quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Cornerback from high school

73%

#194 of 236 stints

Grows Safety from high school

88%

#195 of 218 stints

Postseason detail2023: Beat Utah 14-7 SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl2025: Beat Central Michigan 34-7 GameAbove Sports Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Caleb Tiernan (2026), Evan Beerntsen (2026)

Coach of the Year: Big Ten Dave McClain Coach of the Year/Big Ten Hayes–Schembechler Coach of the Year (2023)

+4.5

25-21

2006–2022

Pat Fitzgerald Steady

Pat Fitzgerald moved Northwestern from Regional Program I to National Program II in 17 seasons.

Swung 20.2 points of pass rate — #31 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

+6.1 pts over 17 seasons · bottom 25% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Paul Pasqualoni’s Syracuse run (1991–2004)

5th-best Northwestern tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Randy Walker (1999–2005) · succeeded by David Braun (2023–now).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Record & result
Record	4-8	6-6	9-4	8-5	7-6	6-7	10-3	5-7	5-7	10-3	7-6	10-3	9-5	3-9	7-2	3-9	1-11
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	—	—	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl	—	W bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	#71	#47	#71	#61	#67	#61	#55	#53	#47	#55	#52	#50	#58	#52	#47	#50	#48
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	44.0	57.1	48.3	51.4	40.9	41.4	38.3	43.0	48.4	37.0	49.1	46.2	50.4	37.0	42.0	44.7	47.1
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	Mick McCall	Mick McCall	Mick McCall	Mick McCall	Mick McCall	Mick McCall	Mike Bajakian	Mike Bajakian	Mike Bajakian
DC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	Mike Hankwitz	Mike Hankwitz	Mike Hankwitz	Mike Hankwitz	Mike Hankwitz	Mike Hankwitz	Mike Hankwitz	Jim O'Neil	Jim O'Neil
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	53	69	28	53	61	74	58	55	13	4	43	36	14	9	33	11	2
Defense	47	42	73	74	14	10	52	41	69	94	80	97	76	77	94	17	52
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	36.0	52.5	41.1	52.1	41.0	39.0	38.9	38.0	42.3	25.4	48.8	48.4	48.7	34.5	36.8	40.6	39.4
Red-zone pass%	34.1	47.7	41.0	42.5	31.1	29.4	33.8	31.6	37.5	24.3	39.2	34.8	35.4	19.4	26.7	34.9	41.1
4th-down go%opp. territory	17.9	32.4	9.3	28.8	23.5	46.7	23.3	12.8	38.0	14.0	54.2	62.1	40.0	45.2	55.9	55.6	53.8

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-35.3 pts

#207 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

+19.3 pts

#33 of 208 · top quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

2.9★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-4

#155 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 230 lbs

across 8 of 13 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+4.8 lbs

#106 of 255 · middle half

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: VA (2), GA (1), MO (1), CA (1), OH (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

33.6

position-weighted

Talent lost

45.3

position-weighted

Net

-11.7

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Trent Carrington (CB) from Presbyterian

Biggest loss: Hunter Johnson (QB) to Clemson

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Mick McCall → Mike Bajakian · 2020The system held

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 41.6% → 38.7% (-2.9 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 84% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Mike Hankwitz → Jim O'Neil · 2021The defense collapsed across the change

2-season window either side.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

219 lbs

6′3″ avg · #189 of 767 · top quarter

Running back

211 lbs

5′11″ avg · #240 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

197 lbs

5′11″ avg · #211 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

248 lbs

6′4″ avg · #277 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

308 lbs

6′5″ avg · #438 of 779 · middle half

D-line

273 lbs

6′4″ avg · #607 of 753 · bottom quarter

Linebacker

235 lbs

6′2″ avg · #113 of 772 · top quarter

Cornerback

198 lbs

6′0″ avg · #55 of 771 · top quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2008: Lost to Missouri 23-30 Bowl2009: Lost to Auburn 35-38 Outback Bowl2010: Lost to Texas Tech 38-45 Ticketcity Bowl2011: Lost to Texas A&M 22-33 Meineke Car Care Bowl Of Texas2012: Beat Mississippi State 34-20 TAXSLAYER.com GATOR BOWL2015: Lost to Tennessee 6-45 Outback Bowl2016: Beat Pittsburgh 31-24 New Era Pinstripe Bowl2017: Beat Kentucky 24-23 Bowl2018: Beat Utah 31-20 Bowl2020: Beat Auburn 35-19 Vrbo Citrus Bowl

20 NFL Draft picks: Corey Wootton (2010), Michael Kafka (2010), Sherrick McManis (2010), Drake Dunsmore (2012), Jeremy Ebert (2012), Ibraheim Campbell (2015), Trevor Siemian (2015), Dean Lowry (2016) + 12 more

3 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Brandon Joseph (2020), Greg Newsome II (2020), Peter Skoronski (2022)

+6.1

110-101

1999–2005

Randy Walker Steady

Randy Walker held the Wildcats at Regional Program I for 7 seasons.

2005 defense ranked in the 4th percentile nationally — historically bad

−2.2 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 35% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Dino Babers’s Syracuse run (2016–2023)

7th-best Northwestern tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Gary Barnett (1992–1998) · succeeded by Pat Fitzgerald (2006–2022).

System Shift, on departure

Season	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
Record & result
Record	3-8	8-4	4-7	3-9	6-7	6-6	7-5
Postseason	—	L bowl	—	—	L bowl	—	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	#90	#54
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	51.0	52.6
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	62	90
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	68	4
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	41.0	55.0
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	39.8	43.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	45.7	30.8

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2000: Lost to Nebraska 17-66 Bowl2003: Lost to Bowling Green 24-28 Bowl2005: Lost to UCLA 38-50 Bowl

13 NFL Draft picks: Jay Tant (2000), Harold Blackmon (2001), Dwayne Missouri (2001), Napoleon Harris (2002), Kevin Bentley (2002), Sam Simmons (2002), Austin King (2003), Luis Castillo (2005) + 5 more

−2.2

37-46

1992–1998

Gary Barnett Builder

Gary Barnett raised Northwestern from Regional Program VI to Regional Program I.

+19.6 pts over 7 seasons · top 5% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Willie Fritz’s Tulane run (2016–2023)

8th-best Northwestern tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Francis Peay (1986–1991) · succeeded by Randy Walker (1999–2005).

Season	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998
Record & result
Record	3-8	2-9	3-7-1	10-2	9-3	5-7	3-9
Postseason	—	—	—	L bowl	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1995: Lost to USC 32-41 Bowl1996: Lost to Tennessee 28-48 Bowl

12 NFL Draft picks: Steve Shine (1994), Lee Gissendaner (1994), Matt O'Dwyer (1995), Michael Senters (1995), Darnell Autry (1997), Tim Scharf (1997), Hudhaifa Ismaeli (1997), Casey Dailey (1998) + 4 more

+19.6

35-45-1

1986–1991

Francis Peay Steady

Francis Peay moved Northwestern from Regional Program VI to Regional Program V in 6 seasons.

+0.3 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 41% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Charlie Weatherbie’s UL Monroe run (2003–2009)

11th-best Northwestern tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Dennis Green (1981–1985) · succeeded by Gary Barnett (1992–1998).

2 NFL Draft picks: Kevin Peterson (1989), Darryl Ashmore (1992)

+0.3

13-51-2

1981–1985

Dennis Green Steady

Dennis Green slid the Wildcats from Regional Program V to Regional Program VI in 5 seasons.

+0.1 pts over 5 seasons · top 34% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gary Moeller’s Michigan run (1990–1994)

12th-best Northwestern tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Rick Venturi (1978–1980) · succeeded by Francis Peay (1986–1991).

4 NFL Draft picks: Chris Hinton (1983), Mike Guendling (1984), John Kidd (1984), Alex Moyer (1985)

+0.1

10-45

1978–1980

Rick Venturi Steady

Rick Venturi slid Northwestern from Regional Program IV to Regional Program V in 3 seasons.

−5.9 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 31% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jim Strong’s UNLV run (1990–1993)

10th-best Northwestern tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed John Pont (1973–1977) · succeeded by Dennis Green (1981–1985).

−5.9

1-31-1

1973–1977

John Pont Steady

John Pont slid the Wildcats from Regional Program I to Regional Program II in 5 seasons.

−10.1 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 13% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tim Brewster’s Minnesota run (2007–2010)

9th-best Northwestern tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Alex Agase (1964–1972) · succeeded by Rick Venturi (1978–1980).

7 NFL Draft picks: Steve Craig (1974), Pete Wessel (1974), Mike Varty (1974), Randy Dean (1977), Pete Shaw (1977), Greg Boykin (1977), Tony Ardizzone (1978)

−10.1

12-43

1964–1972

Alex Agase Steady

Alex Agase slid Northwestern from National Program I to Regional Program I in 9 seasons.

−16.5 pts over 9 seasons · bottom 1% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Butch Davis’s Miami run (1995–2000)

4th-best Northwestern tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Ara Parseghian (1956–1963) · succeeded by John Pont (1973–1977).

−16.5

32-58-1

1956–1963

Ara Parseghian Steady≈

Ara Parseghian moved Northwestern from Regional Program I to National Program I in 8 seasons.

+11.9 pts over 8 seasons · top 13% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Rich Rodriguez’s West Virginia run (2001–2007, 2025–now)

3rd-best Northwestern tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Lou Saban (1955) · succeeded by Alex Agase (1964–1972).

+11.9

36-35-1

1955

Lou Saban Short tenure

0-8-1

1947–1954

Robert Voigts Steady

Robert Voigts slid the Wildcats from National Program I to Power Program III in 8 seasons.

−10.5 pts over 8 seasons · bottom 4% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tom Rossley’s SMU run (1991–1996)

2nd-best Northwestern tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Pappy Waldorf (1936–1946) · succeeded by Lou Saban (1955).

−10.5

33-39-1

1936–1946

Pappy Waldorf Steady

Pappy Waldorf held Northwestern at Power Program III for 11 seasons.

1st-best Northwestern tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Robert Voigts (1947–1954).

Power Program III

45-42-6