Pat Fitzgerald
Followed Randy Walker. Pat Fitzgerald moved Northwestern from Regional Program I to National Program II in 17 seasons.
In his own words
For us as a staff, (Friday) was a big test
The in-game coaching was really good
Not being in a managerial role in a couple of years, it was kind of like riding a bike
What he was articulating to Nick, what he (Milivojevic) said he saw, when you put it on the iPad, that’s exactly what it was
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached National Program in his 7th career season — faster than 9% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #597 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
10–6 against his rivals. Just 1–4 against Bret Bielema.
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coaching career
16th-best Michigan State tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Followed Jonathan Smith (2024–2025).
A portal-built roster.
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
2 NFL Draft picks: Matt Gulbin (2026), Ryan Eckley (2026)
5th-best Northwestern tenure of 13 by the numbers.
Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Followed Randy Walker (1999–2005) · succeeded by David Braun (2023–2026).
| Season | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||||||||||||||
| Record | 4–8 | 6–6 | 9–4 | 8–5 | 7–6 | 6–7 | 10–3 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 10–3 | 7–6 | 10–3 | 9–5 | 3–9 | 7–2 | 3–9 | 1–11 | |
| Postseason | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | L bowl | W bowl | W CFP | W CFP | — | W bowl | — | — | |
| Recruiting rank | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | #47 | #55 | #52 | #50 | #58 | #52 | #47 | #50 | #48 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||||||||||||||
| Pass rate | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 48.4 | 37.0 | 49.1 | 46.2 | 50.4 | 37.0 | 42.0 | 44.7 | 47.1 | |
| Coordinators | ||||||||||||||||||
| OC | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Mick McCall | Mick McCall | Mick McCall | Mick McCall | Mick McCall | Mick McCall | Mike Bajakian | Mike Bajakian | Mike Bajakian | |
| DC | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Mike Hankwitz | Mike Hankwitz | Mike Hankwitz | Mike Hankwitz | Mike Hankwitz | Mike Hankwitz | Mike Hankwitz | Jim O'Neil | Jim O'Neil | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||||||||||||||
| Offense | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13 | 4 | 43 | 36 | 14 | 9 | 23 | 11 | 2 | |
| Defense | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 69 | 94 | 80 | 97 | 76 | 77 | 94 | 13 | 52 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 42.3 | 25.4 | 48.8 | 48.4 | 48.7 | 34.5 | 36.8 | 40.6 | 39.4 | |
| Red-zone pass% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 37.5 | 24.3 | 39.2 | 34.8 | 35.4 | 19.4 | 26.7 | 34.9 | 41.1 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 38.0 | 14.0 | 54.2 | 62.1 | 40.0 | 45.2 | 55.9 | 55.6 | 53.8 | |
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
23 NFL Draft picks: Barry Cofield (2006), Zach Strief (2006), Tim McGarigle (2006), Corey Wootton (2010), Michael Kafka (2010), Sherrick McManis (2010), Drake Dunsmore (2012), Jeremy Ebert (2012) + 15 more
3 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Brandon Joseph (2020), Greg Newsome II (2020), Peter Skoronski (2022)