Michigan State: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2026–now

Pat Fitzgerald Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

2-6

2024–2025

Jonathan Smith Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

9-15

2023

Harlon Barnett Short tenure

2023 offense ranked in the 2th percentile nationally — historically bad

2-8

2020–2023

Mel Tucker Steady ◆ COY

Mel Tucker held Michigan State at Power Program III for 3 seasons.

2020 offense ranked in the 4th percentile nationally — historically bad

−4.4 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 40% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Rick Neuheisel’s Colorado run (1995–1998)

9th-best Michigan State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Mark Dantonio (2007–2019) · succeeded by Harlon Barnett (2023).

Season	2020	2021	2022	2023
Record & result
Record	2-5	11-2	5-7	2-0
Postseason	—	W bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	#43	#43	#24	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	50.5	45.5	53.3	—
Coordinators
OC	Jay Johnson	Jay Johnson	Jay Johnson	—
DC	Scottie Hazelton	Scottie Hazelton	Scottie Hazelton	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	4	59	32	—
Defense	69	56	20	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	46.1	41.1	45.5	—
Red-zone pass%	54.2	41.7	36.9	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	37.5	45.5	59.4	—

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-25.5 pts

#191 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

-8.2 pts

#140 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.2★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-20

#102 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 230 lbs

across 20 of 24 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+11.8 lbs

#2 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: MI (4), LA (3), FL (3), CA (1), NC (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

52.4

position-weighted

Talent lost

55.0

position-weighted

Net

-2.6

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Anthony Russo (QB) from Temple

Biggest loss: Theo Day (QB) to Northern Iowa

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

208 lbs

6′2″ avg · #533 of 767 · middle half

Running back

215 lbs

5′11″ avg · #123 of 791 · top quarter

Wide receiver

194 lbs

6′1″ avg · #335 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

246 lbs

6′4″ avg · #323 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

314 lbs

6′5″ avg · #176 of 779 · top quarter

D-line

291 lbs

6′4″ avg · #231 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

228 lbs

6′2″ avg · #413 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

192 lbs

6′0″ avg · #290 of 771 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Linebacker via the portal

75%

#10 of 225 stints

Buys Athlete via the portal

17%

#30 of 146 stints

Grows Tackle from high school

86%

#189 of 223 stints

Grows Interior line from high school

86%

#191 of 224 stints

Postseason detail2021: Beat Pittsburgh 31-21 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: Ken Walker III (2022), Jalen Nailor (2022), Connor Heyward (2022), AJ Arcuri (2022), Jayden Reed (2023), Bryce Baringer (2023), Ameer Speed (2023)

Coach of the Year: Big Ten Dave McClain Coach of the Year/Big Ten Hayes–Schembechler Coach of the Year (2021)

3 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Jayden Reed (2021), Kenneth Walker III (2021), Bryce Baringer (2022)

−4.4

20-14

2007–2019

Mark Dantonio Builder

Mark Dantonio raised the Spartans from National Program I to Power Program I.

2013 defense ranked in the 99th percentile nationally — elite

+15.8 pts over 13 seasons · top 35% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: David Shaw’s Stanford run (2011–2022)

3rd-best Michigan State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed John Smith (2003–2006) · succeeded by Mel Tucker (2020–2023).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Record & result
Record	7-6	9-4	6-7	11-2	11-3	7-6	13-1	11-2	12-2	3-9	10-3	7-6	7-6
Postseason	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl	CFP loss	—	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	#53	#42	#22	#22	#32	#34	#37	#26	#23	#17	#36	#31	#32
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	40.4	43.8	50.2	45.7	48.0	48.6	43.0	40.2	44.4	44.0	43.7	51.3	49.8
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	Jim Bollman / Dave Warner	Jim Bollman / Dave Warner	Jim Bollman / Dave Warner	Jim Bollman / Dave Warner	Jim Bollman / Dave Warner	Brad Salem
DC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	Pat Narduzzi	Harlon Barnett / Mike Tressel	Harlon Barnett / Mike Tressel	Harlon Barnett / Mike Tressel	Mike Tressel	Mike Tressel
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	47	21	34	68	29	29	37	93	33	54	50	3	14
Defense	76	69	38	37	98	98	99	81	60	57	63	97	82
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	35.9	33.4	44.7	37.5	38.8	42.0	29.9	32.8	32.7	33.9	35.3	44.4	45.4
Red-zone pass%	30.7	28.9	36.6	39.4	52.0	29.4	28.1	32.8	35.9	35.6	41.4	45.5	45.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	25.0	19.6	17.1	33.3	23.1	11.8	16.7	33.3	31.0	23.7	23.5	22.6	28.8

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-28.3 pts

#198 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

+13.5 pts

#53 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Jim Bollman (co) / Dave Warner (co) → Brad Salem · 2019

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 44.4% → 45.4% (+1.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 93% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Pat Narduzzi → Harlon Barnett (co) / Mike Tressel (co) · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Harlon Barnett (co) / Mike Tressel (co) → Mike Tressel · 2018The defense improved

2-season window either side.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Punter from high school

100%

#29 of 29 stints

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Postseason detail2007: Lost to Boston College 21-24 Bowl2008: Lost to Georgia 12-24 Capital One Bowl2009: Lost to Texas Tech 31-41 Valero Alamo Bowl2010: Lost to Alabama 7-49 Capital One Bowl2011: Beat Georgia 33-30 Outback Bowl2012: Beat TCU 17-16 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl2013: Beat Stanford 24-20 Rose Bowl Game Presented By Vizio2014: Beat Baylor 42-41 Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic2015: Lost to Alabama 0-38 CFP2017: Beat Washington State 42-17 San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl2018: Lost to Oregon 6-7 Bowl2019: Beat Wake Forest 27-21 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

33 NFL Draft picks: Devin Thomas (2008), Kellen Davis (2008), Ervin Baldwin (2008), Javon Ringer (2009), Jeremy Ware (2010), Greg Jones (2011), Chris L. Rucker (2011), Jerel Worthy (2012) + 25 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Connor Cook (2015)

+15.8

114-57

2003–2006

John Smith Steady

John Smith slid the Spartans from Power Program III to National Program I in 4 seasons.

2005 offense ranked in the 95th percentile nationally — elite

−3.7 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 44% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jim Wacker’s Minnesota run (1992–1996)

11th-best Michigan State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Bobby Williams (2000–2002) · succeeded by Mark Dantonio (2007–2019).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2003	2004	2005	2006
Record & result
Record	8-5	5-7	5-6	4-8
Postseason	L bowl	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	#15	#34	#44
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	44.4	46.1	51.9
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	90	95	47
Defense	—	63	9	49
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	40.6	43.7	52.3
Red-zone pass%	—	24.1	29.7	38.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	28.9	29.6	25.7

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tackle from high school

100%

#198 of 223 stints

Grows Wide receiver from high school

100%

#230 of 243 stints

Postseason detail2003: Lost to Nebraska 3-17 Bowl

12 NFL Draft picks: Matthias Askew (2004), Jeff Smoker (2004), DeAndra Cobb (2005), Dave Rayner (2005), Kevin Vickerson (2005), Will Whitticker (2005), Eric Smith (2006), Domata Peko (2006) + 4 more

−3.7

22-26

2002

Morris Watts Short tenure

1-2

2000–2002

Bobby Williams Steady

Bobby Williams held Michigan State at Power Program III for 3 seasons.

−4.1 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 42% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bobby Keasler’s UL Monroe run (1999–2002)

8th-best Michigan State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Nick Saban (1995–1999) · succeeded by Morris Watts (2002).

Season	2000	2001	2002
Record & result
Record	5-6	7-5	3-6
Postseason	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

Grows Tackle from high school

100%

#198 of 223 stints

Postseason detail2001: Beat Fresno State 44-35 Bowl

9 NFL Draft picks: Renaldo Hill (2001), Siitupe Peko (2001), T.J. Turner (2001), T.J. Duckett (2002), Chris Baker (2002), Herb Haygood (2002), Josh Shaw (2002), Craig Jarrett (2002) + 1 more

−4.1

15-17

1995–1999

Nick Saban Steady

Nick Saban held the Spartans at Power Program III for 5 seasons.

+1.5 pts over 5 seasons · top 26% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jim Donnan’s Georgia run (1996–2000)

7th-best Michigan State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed George Perles (1983–1994) · succeeded by Bobby Williams (2000–2002).

Season	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
Record & result
Record	6-5-1	6-6	7-5	6-6	9-2
Postseason	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1995: Lost to LSU 26-45 Bowl1996: Lost to Stanford 0-38 Bowl1997: Lost to Washington 23-51 Bowl

14 NFL Draft picks: Derrick Mason (1997), Nigea Carter (1997), Flozell Adams (1998), Ike Reese (1998), Scott Shaw (1998), Dimitrius Underwood (1999), Sedrick Irvin (1999), Plaxico Burress (2000) + 6 more

+1.5

34-24-1

1983–1994

George Perles Steady≈

George Perles moved the Spartans from National Program I to Power Program II in 12 seasons.

+10.7 pts over 12 seasons · bottom 45% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Bower’s Southern Miss run (1990–2007)

4th-best Michigan State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Frank Waters (1980–1982) · succeeded by Nick Saban (1995–1999).

Season	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
Record & result
Record	4-6-1	6-6	7-5	6-5	9-2-1	6-5-1	8-4	8-3-1	3-8	5-6	6-6	5-6
Postseason	—	L bowl	L bowl	—	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	—	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1984: Lost to Army 6-10 Bowl1985: Lost to Georgia Tech 14-17 Bowl1987: Beat USC 20-17 Bowl1988: Lost to Georgia 27-34 Bowl1989: Beat Hawai'i 33-13 Bowl1990: Beat USC 17-16 Bowl1993: Lost to Louisville 7-18 Bowl

33 NFL Draft picks: Carl Banks (1984), Daryl Turner (1984), Ralf Mojsiejenko (1985), Mark Napolitan (1985), Terry Lewis (1985), Anthony Bell (1986), Butch Rolle (1986), Mark Ingram (1987) + 25 more

+10.7

73-62-4

1980–1982

Frank Waters Steady

Frank Waters slid Michigan State from Power Program II to Power Program III in 3 seasons.

−10.5 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 11% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bob Diaco’s UConn run (2014–2016)

10th-best Michigan State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Darryl Rogers (1976–1979) · succeeded by George Perles (1983–1994).

8 NFL Draft picks: Ray Stachowicz (1981), James Burroughs (1982), Morten Andersen (1982), Tom Morris (1982), Jeff Wiska (1982), Steve Maidlow (1983), Smiley Creswell (1983), Otis Grant (1983)

−10.5

10-23

1976–1979

Darryl Rogers Steady

Darryl Rogers moved Michigan State from Power Program III to Power Program II in 4 seasons.

+1.3 pts over 4 seasons · top 28% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Cavan’s SMU run (1997–2001)

5th-best Michigan State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Dennis Stolz (1973–1975) · succeeded by Frank Waters (1980–1982).

10 NFL Draft picks: Mike Cobb (1977), Tom Hannon (1977), Larry Bethea (1978), Al Pitts (1978), James Earley (1978), Mel Land (1979), Kirk Gibson (1979), Angelo Fields (1980) + 2 more

+1.3

24-18-2

1973–1975

Dennis Stolz Steady

Dennis Stolz slid the Spartans from Power Program II to Power Program III in 3 seasons.

−4.9 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 37% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Sherman’s Texas A&M run (2008–2011)

6th-best Michigan State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Duffy Daugherty (1954–1972) · succeeded by Darryl Rogers (1976–1979).

3 NFL Draft picks: Bill Simpson (1974), Raymond Nester (1974), Greg Schaum (1976)

−4.9

19-13-1

1954–1972

Duffy Daugherty Sustainer

Duffy Daugherty kept Michigan State a national power for 8 seasons.

−14.3 pts over 19 seasons · bottom 1% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Charles McClendon’s LSU run (1962–1979)

1st-best Michigan State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Biggie Munn (1947–1953) · succeeded by Dennis Stolz (1973–1975).

−14.3

109-69-5

1947–1953

Biggie Munn Transformer

Biggie Munn took the Spartans from National Program II to Blue Blood.

+31.7 pts over 7 seasons · top 1% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Pete Carroll’s USC run (2001–2009)

2nd-best Michigan State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Charlie Bachman (1944–1946) · succeeded by Duffy Daugherty (1954–1972).

+31.7

54-9-2

1936–1942, 1944–1946

Charlie Bachman Steady

Charlie Bachman held Michigan State at National Program I for 10 seasons.

12th-best Michigan State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Biggie Munn (1947–1953).

National Program I

52-29-8