Followed Mark Dantonio. Mel Tucker held Michigan State at Power Program III for 4 seasons.
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached Power Program in his 2nd career season — faster than 51% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #170 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
5–4 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Ryan Day.
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
Gonna be a bloodbath. The team will quit by the 2nd quarter. And Smith will be fired. I hate it but that's how it will play out
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Oct 18, 2025 · via CFB
9th-best Michigan State tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Followed Mark Dantonio (2007–2019) · succeeded by Jonathan Smith (2024–2025).
| Season | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||
| Record | 2–5 | 11–2 | 5–7 | 2–0 | |
| Postseason | — | W bowl | — | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #43 | #43 | #24 | #24 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||
| Pass rate | 50.5 | 45.5 | 53.3 | 50.7 | |
| Coordinators | |||||
| OC | Jay Johnson | Jay Johnson | Jay Johnson | Jay Johnson | |
| DC | Scottie Hazelton | Scottie Hazelton | Scottie Hazelton | Scottie Hazelton | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||
| Offense | 4 | 60 | 32 | 2 | |
| Defense | 67 | 37 | 20 | 31 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||||
| 1st-down pass% | 46.1 | 41.1 | 45.5 | 48.9 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 54.2 | 41.7 | 36.9 | 49.0 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 37.5 | 45.5 | 59.4 | 25.0 | |
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
10 NFL Draft picks: Josiah Scott (2020), Kenny Willekes (2020), Ken Walker III (2022), Jalen Nailor (2022), Connor Heyward (2022), AJ Arcuri (2022), Jayden Reed (2023), Bryce Baringer (2023) + 2 more
Coach of the Year: Big Ten Dave McClain Coach of the Year/Big Ten Hayes–Schembechler Coach of the Year (2021)
3 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Jayden Reed (2021), Kenneth Walker III (2021), Bryce Baringer (2022)
16th-best Colorado tenure of 20 by the numbers.
Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Followed Mike MacIntyre (2013–2018) · succeeded by Karl Dorrell (2020–2022).
4 NFL Draft picks: Juwann Winfree (2019), Laviska Shenault Jr. (2020), Davion Taylor (2020), Arlington Hambright (2020)