10-3 is different from 9-3 though. I have a very hard time imagining a situation in which the committee would leave out the Big10 runner up, especially if it’s a brand as big as Ohio State.
I would think with sayin for Ohio state , they not only win last game, but they would be sitting at top 8 at the very least if they did lose. Because of the loss of sayin and the second game, they drop.
Never had a doubt; The @rooster.info was forged in the darkest of fires (the Ohio State football beat)
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 20th of 138 per play. Defense: 7th.
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Ohio State. The other two rows are where Ohio State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
4 games left
Sat Nov 7vs. OREOregon (5-3)72%
Sat Nov 14vs. NUNorthwestern (6-2)68%
Sat Nov 21at NEBNebraska (5-3)72%
Sat Nov 28vs. MICHMichigan (5-3)83%
Percent: Ohio State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Ohio State has held at 2nd of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
▲ Higher
Age 47 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
▼ Lower
Paid $12.6 million in 2025, the 99th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 25% on the season before
▲ Higher
26-4 over his previous two seasons here
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
Oct 31L 18-30 at USCRyan Day saving Lincoln Reily’s jobOSUOhio State fan
Oct 17W 19-15 at IndianaBuckeye fans, however this game ends, do not call for Ryan Day to be fired. Whoever we get as a replacement will be worse.OSUOhio State fan
Oct 10W 45-16 vs. MarylandDay is gonna light a fire on this teams ass after this driveOSUOhio State fan
Earlier weeks
Oct 3W 31-14 at IowaThank god. We don't need to fire Ryan Day yet.OSUOhio State fan
Sep 26W 42-19 vs. IllinoisFalse start? Fire Day!OSUOhio State fan
Sep 19W 59-3 vs. Kent StateRyan Day is the winningest OSU coach to never leave the hot seatOSUOhio State fan
Sep 12L 23-24 at TexasFire Ryan DayOSUOhio State fan
Sep 5W 56-3 vs. Ball StateHIRE Ryan DayOSUOhio State fan
Dozens of stories about him this week
Sat Nov 7: Oregon
4th of 104 FBS head coaches · from many outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
WinA few storiesWith OSU’s recent losses this season, Ryan Day has lost his spot to Knute Rockne for the highest win percentage in CFBr/notredamefootball
Profile and featureA few storiesrising
Hot seatA few stories
Dozens of stories about him this season
from dozens of outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each week. W and L: his games. Counted from Aug 1, when tracking began.
Press conference and quotesDozens of storiesrising
Quarterback and depth chartDozens of storiesrising[Robinson] Ohio State doesn’t need ‘Money Manziel Julian.’ But its QB answered Ryan Day’s challenger/OhioStateFootball
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2025). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
9-4 against his rivals. Just 1-3 against Jim Harbaugh.
’19 W · erased a 6-pt deficit’21 L · blew a 3-pt lead’22 L · blew a 7-pt lead’23 L
covered the spread
25% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0-2 0.0%ATS —
Blue Blood
2-3 40.0%ATS —
Power Program
32-9 78.0%ATS 25-15-1 41 of 41
National Program
21-0 100.0%ATS 13-7-1 21 of 21
Regional Program
28-0 100.0%ATS 15-12-1 28 of 28
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Signature games
21-7 vs. AP top 25 · 12-6 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’19’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WMI
Michigan · 2025
27-9
RivalQuality opponent
WPS
Penn State · 2025
38-14
RivalQuality opponent
WOR
Oregon · 2024
41-21
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
Signature losses
LAL
Alabama · 2020
24-52
National title game
LMI
Michigan · 2024
10-13
RivalUpset
LMI
Michigan · 2022
23-45
RivalUpset
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
Defining games during this era
From our list of the 50 most defining games of the Playoff era, ranked by how much each game mattered, not by date.
Passed more than the situation called for under Wilson, Hartline and Kelly.
6,065 run and pass snaps at Ohio State, 2019–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
Ohio State15.9pt#85 of 449 · more than most
Building the roster
Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His 8 ranked Ohio State classes of his own have averaged #5 nationally — best #2, worst #14.
2019
#14
His class
2020
#5
His class
2021
#2
His class
2022
#4
His class
2023
#5
His class
2024
#5
His class
2025
#4
His class
2026
#4
His class
His class — he had the full signing cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
100%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 120 of 120 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 16% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
This tenure spans the 2021 transfer-portal tracking floor: seasons before 2021 structurally cannot be classified portal-vs-not (they land in 'unknown' below), so the portal-share figure understates how many pre-2021 arrivals might have been transfers under the pre-portal-tracking transfer rules.
New players each season, 2022–2026
16% of his 237 new players since 2022 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 23%) — the 6th-lowest share of the 68 Power 4 programs. His share was 2% in 2022 and 25% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out better than most FBS programs’ in 1 and worse than most in 4 of the 5 seasons graded. our read
20221 of 42Portal grade: worse than most — #130 of 131 FBS programs that season
20236 of 44Portal grade: better than most — #8 of 130 FBS programs that season
20247 of 42Portal grade: worse than most — #126 of 134 FBS programs that season
202510 of 50Portal grade: worse than most — #108 of 136 FBS programs that season
202615 of 59Portal grade: worse than most — #105 of 136 FBS programs that season
Came through the portalNon-portal arrivalsFBS-wide share that season
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
+3 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his Ohio State rosters have averaged 3 lb heavier than the FBS average (2019–2026). In the three seasons before he arrived, Ohio State’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.
Ohio State2019–2026+3 lb
−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
OHTop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 71 of 210 signees (34%) across his 2018–2026 tenure, drawn from 30 states in all. Next: FL (18).
Where his signees came from, 2018–2026 (210 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
42% of his signees come from OH and its 5 border states (IN 7, PA 7, MI 3, KY 1).
Off this map: 12 signees to the west (CA 9, WA 3).
By region
Midwest
89
South
76
Northeast
22
West
22
Feeder schoolGlenville5
Roster distance from campus (Ohio Stadium, OH)
median hometown distance
288 mi
within 100 mi
28%
within 500 mi
66%
beyond 1,000 mi
10%
116 of 120 roster players with a known hometown (97% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
61Drafted
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 40 of them himself; 21 arrived under Urban Meyer. 18 went in the first round.
His recruits 40Inherited 2161 roster-verified · 0 estimated
Most recent picks first
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2026
R1.04
Carnell Tate
Wide Receiver
Tennessee Titans
2026
R1.05
Arvell Reese
Linebacker
New York Giants
2026
R1.07
Sonny Styles
Linebacker
Washington Commanders
2026
R1.11
Caleb Downs
Safety
Dallas Cowboys
2026
R2.04
Kayden McDonald
Defensive Tackle
Houston Texans
2026
R2.29
Max Klare
Tight End
Los Angeles Rams
2026
R2.30
Davison Igbinosun
Cornerback
Buffalo Bills
2026
R3.23
Will Kacmarek
Tight End
Miami Dolphins
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2026
R5.32
Lorenzo Styles Jr.
Safety
New Orleans Saints
2026
R6.33
Caden Curry
Defensive Edge
Indianapolis Colts
2026
R7.15
Ethan Onianwa
Offensive Tackle
Atlanta Falcons
2025
R1.19
Emeka Egbuka
Wide Receiver
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2025
R1.24
Donovan Jackson
Offensive Guard
Minnesota Vikings
2025
R1.28
Tyleik Williams
Defensive Tackle
Detroit Lions
2025
R1.32
Josh Simmons
Offensive Tackle
Kansas City Chiefs
2025
R2.04
Quinshon Judkins
Running Back
Cleveland Browns
2025
R2.06
TreVeyon Henderson
Running Back
New England Patriots
2025
R2.13
JT Tuimoloau
Defensive Edge
Indianapolis Colts
2025
R4.13
Cody Simon
Linebacker
Arizona Cardinals
2025
R4.20
Lathan Ransom
Safety
Carolina Panthers
2025
R4.21
Jack Sawyer
Defensive Edge
Pittsburgh Steelers
2025
R5.10
Ty Hamilton
Defensive Tackle
Los Angeles Rams
2025
R5.34
Jordan Hancock
Cornerback
Buffalo Bills
2025
R5.38
Denzel Burke
Cornerback
Arizona Cardinals
2025
R6.09
Will Howard
Quarterback
Pittsburgh Steelers
2024
R1.04
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Wide Receiver
Arizona Cardinals
2024
R2.22
Michael Hall Jr.
Defensive Tackle
Cleveland Browns
2024
R4.23
Cade Stover
Tight End
Houston Texans
2024
R5.13
Tommy Eichenberg
Linebacker
Las Vegas Raiders
2023
R1.02
C.J. Stroud
Quarterback
Houston Texans
2023
R1.06
Paris Johnson Jr.
Offensive Tackle
Arizona Cardinals
2023
R1.20
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Wide Receiver
Seattle Seahawks
2023
R3.12
Zach Harrison
Defensive End
Atlanta Falcons
2023
R4.09
Dawand Jones
Offensive Tackle
Cleveland Browns
2023
R6.13
Luke Wypler
Center
Cleveland Browns
2022
R1.10
Garrett Wilson
Wide Receiver
New York Jets
2022
R1.11
Chris Olave
Wide Receiver
New Orleans Saints
recruited under Urban Meyer
2022
R3.05
Nicholas Petit-Frere
Offensive Tackle
Tennessee Titans
2022
R3.37
Jeremy Ruckert
Tight End
New York Jets
recruited under Urban Meyer
2022
R5.15
Tyreke Smith
Defensive End
Seattle Seahawks
recruited under Urban Meyer
2022
R7.17
Thayer Munford
Offensive Tackle
Las Vegas Raiders
recruited under Urban Meyer
2021
R1.11
Justin Fields
Quarterback
Chicago Bears
2021
R2.28
Pete Werner
Inside Linebacker
New Orleans Saints
recruited under Urban Meyer
2021
R2.30
Josh Myers
Center
Green Bay Packers
recruited under Urban Meyer
2021
R3.23
Wyatt Davis
Offensive Guard
Minnesota Vikings
recruited under Urban Meyer
2021
R3.25
Trey Sermon
Running Back
San Francisco 49ers
2021
R3.42
Baron Browning
Outside Linebacker
Denver Broncos
recruited under Urban Meyer
2021
R4.27
Tommy Togiai
Defensive Tackle
Cleveland Browns
recruited under Urban Meyer
2021
R5.01
Luke Farrell
Tight End
Jacksonville Jaguars
recruited under Urban Meyer
2021
R5.16
Shaun Wade
Cornerback
Baltimore Ravens
recruited under Urban Meyer
2021
R7.11
Jonathon Cooper
Defensive End
Denver Broncos
recruited under Urban Meyer
2020
R1.02
Chase Young
Defensive End
Washington Football Team
recruited under Urban Meyer
2020
R1.03
Jeff Okudah
Cornerback
Detroit Lions
recruited under Urban Meyer
2020
R1.19
Damon Arnette
Cornerback
Las Vegas Raiders
recruited under Urban Meyer
2020
R2.23
J.K. Dobbins
Running Back
Baltimore Ravens
recruited under Urban Meyer
2020
R3.09
Davon Hamilton
Defensive Tackle
Jacksonville Jaguars
recruited under Urban Meyer
2020
R3.11
Jonah Jackson
Offensive Guard
Detroit Lions
2020
R3.34
Malik Harrison
Inside Linebacker
Baltimore Ravens
recruited under Urban Meyer
2020
R6.20
Jordan Fuller
Safety
Los Angeles Rams
recruited under Urban Meyer
2020
R7.06
K.J. Hill
Wide Receiver
Los Angeles Chargers
recruited under Urban Meyer
2020
R7.21
Jashon Cornell
Defensive End
Detroit Lions
recruited under Urban Meyer
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
I think both quarterbacks practiced well last week, which was good, it was good energy, guys were rallying around both guys and we’ll keep working this week and keep working on packages for both guys
We’re going on the road against a really good opponent, I know they had a tough game last week, but this is as talented [of] a team as I’ve seen on film, and we’re going to get their best shot
But now that we have a bye week, these guys are both going to get a lot of reps and we’re going to start to put together a plan on how we’re going to move forward and we’re going to play the guy that gives us the best chance to win.
It is going to be a huge challenge, they do an excellent job up front on defense, their defensive line is one of the biggest challenges we’ll have all season
When we look at the consistency of kicking field goals, [it’s] not good enough, when we look at our return yards, we need to be better just across the board and [when] we have an opportunity to pooch the ball inside the 10-yard line, that has to get done
We have to keep looking and uncover all stones to get this addressed because we know it’s going to come down to one of these kicks again that we’ve got to make
When Quinshon and TreVeyon were working together they were challenging each other every day, I think Quinshon really helped TreVeyon in a lot of ways and I think vice versa
The first thing every coach in America is going to say [is] ‘We’ve got to take this guy away,’ so the challenge is trying to figure out ways to get it to him
He’s so fast, sometimes he would run the route and still do a great job, but you’re seeing a little bit more definition on the route, and so now those guys are having a hard time staying with him
When it comes to the second level, I think that there’s been signs in the first two games that [were] very good, [but] not in this past game when you watch the film
It’s extremely frustrating, it’s maddening and we’re excited to get back on the field and get going because the last couple days haven’t been fun around here
We have some really good young players on all three phases, [specifically on] offense and defense that are going to play into both sides of the ball more often as we move forward into conference play
It’s extremely frustrating, it’s maddening and we’re excited to get back on the field and get going because the last couple of days haven’t been fun around here
It was good to have that game as a little [insight for] some information to say all right, we feel good putting them into the game based on how they graded out
To see Bo break a tackle and then break another tackle, to see the effort of Brock Boyd running downfield, the effort that Chris Henry had on that, when you see the replay, was excellent
The overall football IQ of those three guys is really high. Combine that with some of the things that [Smith’s] doing, [Bowen’s] doing, man, those guys are walking on water right now, they are
There’s certain things you want to save, and there’s certain things that as the season goes on you want to keep in your back pocket, but good teams have tendencies and we’ve got to identify our identity
You’re seeing [Hinzman], [Montgomery] and [Siereveld] inside, and then [Moore] and [Daniels] on the outside, and they’re working together right now and getting a lot of reps with the ones
In my opinion, the conferences have to decide if there’s a point where their rosters have to be locked in because once some of these guys become available, adding them to the roster is going to provide advantage for certain teams
If there are teams that have some players out there who are cut from NFL rosters that are going to be on other teams, we have to at least consider it and look at it
We said, ‘well, why don’t we just recognize all the seniors at the beginning of the year and let them know how much we appreciate everything they’ve done
If he continues to keep building and practicing and stacking these practices the way he’s doing it, it’s going to show up in a game and that’s going to be a big part of who we are this year
Ryan Day kept Ohio State a national power for 8 seasons.
+5.0 pts over 8 seasons · top 33% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)
3rd-best Ohio State tenure of 12 by the numbers.
Followed Urban Meyer (2012–2018).
System Shift, on arrival
swipe to see every season
Season
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Trend
Record & result
Record
3-0
13-1
7-1
11-2
11-2
11-2
14-2
12-2
6-2
Postseason
—
CFP loss
Title game L
W bowl
CFP loss
L bowl
Champion
CFP loss
—
Coordinators
OC
—
Kevin Wilson
Kevin Wilson
Kevin Wilson
Kevin Wilson
Brian Hartline
Chip Kelly / Brian Hartline
Keenan Bailey / Brian Hartline
Keenan Bailey / Arthur Smith
DC
—
Greg Mattison / Jeff Hafley
Greg Mattison / Kerry Coombs
Kerry Coombs
Jim Knowles
Jim Knowles
Jim Knowles
Matt Patricia / Tim Walton
Matt Patricia / Tim Walton
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
—
97
96
100
97
87
100
94
87
Defense
—
95
43
57
52
96
100
97
92
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
—
39.9
35.9
55.4
43.3
42.0
46.0
46.5
47.0
Red-zone pass%
—
37.7
33.3
51.4
41.3
38.1
38.6
37.3
47.8
4th-down go%opp. territory
—
33.3
19.0
40.0
26.3
31.6
45.9
37.9
44.4
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+23.2 pts
#26 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+6.6 pts
#72 of 208 · middle half
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 233 lbs
across 39 of 47 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+8.6 lbs
#31 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
Jr
#225 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.5★
rated arrivals only
Top states: FL (6), TX (5), CA (4), OH (4), AL (3)
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
66.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
64.8
position-weighted
Net
+1.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Julian Sayin (QB) from Alabama
Biggest loss: Quinn Ewers (QB) to Texas
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Kevin Wilson → Brian Hartline (co) · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 43.3% → 42.0% (-1.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 64% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Brian Hartline (co) → Chip Kelly / Brian Hartline (co) · 2024
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 42.0% → 46.0% (+4.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 22% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Chip Kelly / Brian Hartline (co) → Keenan Bailey (co) / Brian Hartline · 2025
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 46.0% → 46.5% (+0.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 31% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Keenan Bailey (co) / Brian Hartline → Keenan Bailey (co) / Arthur Smith · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 46.5% → 47.0% (+0.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 68% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Kerry Coombs → Jim Knowles · 2022
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Jim Knowles → Matt Patricia / Tim Walton (co) · 2025The system held
2-season window either side.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Kicker via the portal
80%
#7 of 56 stints
Grows Running back from high school
75%
#162 of 208 stints
Grows Edge from high school
77%
#173 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2019: Lost to Clemson 23-29 Playstation Fiesta Bowl - Cfp Semifinal2020: Beat Clemson 49-28 Allstate Sugar Bowl - CFP Semifinal2020: Lost to Alabama 24-52 CFP National Championship pres. by AT&T2021: Beat Utah 48-45 Rose Bowl Game Pres. by Capital One Venture X2022: Lost to Georgia 41-42 CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl2023: Lost to Missouri 3-14 Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic2024: Beat Tennessee 42-17 College Football Playoff First Round Game Presented by Allstate2024: Beat Oregon 41-21 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential2024: Beat Texas 28-14 College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic2024: Beat Notre Dame 34-23 College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T2025: Lost to Miami 14-24 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
The data leans positive, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.
Raised the program
OS+5.0 pts at Ohio State · #384 of 1290 · middle half
Beat his talent
Offense vs. talent
+23.2 pts
#26 of 208 · top quarter · 7 covered seasons
Defense vs. talent
+6.6 pts
#72 of 208 · middle half · 7 covered seasons
Coordinator years
Offensive coordinator across 2 programs, 2 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.
How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from our coordinator career records; head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from the staff assignments record. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.