The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jim Harbaugh

Followed Brady Hoke. Jim Harbaugh raised Michigan from Power Program II to Blue Blood.

The empire-builder
118–46
2007–2023 · 2 stints
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerSTANFORDMICHIGANDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelStanford, 2007: 4-8, Regional Program I2007Stanford, 2008: 5-7, Regional Program I2008Stanford, 2009: 8-5, National Program II2009Stanford, 2010: 12-1, Power Program III2010+15.1Michigan, 2015: 10-3, Power Program II2015Michigan, 2016: 10-3, Power Program II2016Michigan, 2017: 8-5, Power Program I2017Michigan, 2018: 10-3, Power Program I2018Michigan, 2019: 9-4, Power Program I2019Michigan, 2020: 2-4, Power Program II2020Michigan, 2021: 12-2, Power Program I2021Michigan, 2022: 13-1, Power Program I2022Michigan, 2023: 15-0, Blue Blood2023+15.9One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Blue Blood in his 13th career season — faster than 11% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #86 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).

Stanford, 4 seasons
+15.1
Regional Program I → Power Program III.
Michigan, 9 seasons
+15.9
Power Program II → Blue Blood.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Michigan2015–2023▼ 6.7pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Michigan17.2pt#24 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

12–13 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Urban Meyer.

Rivalry record
12–13
48.0% · 4 rivals
One-score games
25–21
54.3% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
8–9
47.1%
Rivalry ledger
Ohio State3–443%
Notre Dame3–350%
California2–250%
The toughest matchup
vs. Urban Meyer0–3
3 meetings, 2015–2017
’15 L’16 L · blew a 10-pt lead’17 L · blew a 14-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
8–9 47.1%
Power Program
27–26 50.9%
National Program
30–9 76.9%
Regional Program
44–0 100.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.24
#72 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.41
#21 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

coaching decisionOne fan's take that season

One fan thinks his teams perform well in high-stakes games

I think Moore has been appropriately aggressive, especially in big games. Both OSU games and Penn State 23 he had great game management. That punt did annoy me though

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 31, 2025 · via CFB

Coaching career

2015–2023
Michiganbuilder🏆 coach of the year
Power Program II → Blue Blood
Jim Harbaugh raised Michigan from Power Program II to Blue Blood.

4th-best Michigan tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+0.1 pts
#114 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+16.0 pts
#48 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Brady Hoke (2011–2014) · succeeded by Sherrone Moore (2024–2025).

Season201520162017201820192020202120222023Trend
Record & result
Record10–310–38–510–39–42–412–213–115–0
PostseasonW bowlL bowlL bowlL bowlL bowlL bowlL bowlCHAMPION
Recruiting rank#37#8#5#22#8#14#10#9#17
Style — pass rate
Pass rate45.839.239.538.345.355.340.738.139.1
Coordinators
OCTim DrevnoTim DrevnoTim DrevnoJosh GattisJosh GattisSherrone Moore / Josh GattisMatt Weiss / Sherrone MooreSherrone Moore
DCD. J. DurkinDon BrownDon BrownDon BrownDon BrownDon BrownMike MacdonaldJesse Minter / Steve ClinkscaleJesse Minter / Steve Clinkscale
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense754917686854838791
Defense899690837026908399
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%40.436.636.335.842.354.136.436.335.8
Red-zone pass%38.434.634.529.537.728.627.330.831.4
4th-down go%opp. territory22.525.614.030.030.837.534.931.441.2
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
17
3.4★ avg rating
Portal departures
45
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-28
#161 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 257 lbs
across 13 of 17 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+9.6 lbs
#22 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (3), MD (3), DC (1), MA (1), CO (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
53.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
58.9
position-weighted
Net
-5.3
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jack Tuttle (QB) from Indiana
Biggest loss: Dylan McCaffrey (QB) to Northern Colorado
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Josh Gattis → co-Sherrone Moore / Josh Gattis · 2021
54th pct83rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 54.1% → 36.4% (-17.7 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 54% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Sherrone Moore / Josh Gattis → co-Matt Weiss / co-Sherrone Moore · 2022
83rd pct87th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 36.4% → 36.3% (-0.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 78% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Matt Weiss / co-Sherrone Moore → Sherrone Moore · 2023
87th pct91st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 36.3% → 35.8% (-0.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 78% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: D. J. Durkin → Don Brown · 2016
89th pct96th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Don Brown → Mike Macdonald · 2021
26th pct90th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Mike Macdonald → Jesse Minter / co-Steve Clinkscale · 2022
90th pct83rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
210 lbs
6′3″ avg · #453 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
214 lbs
5′11″ avg · #147 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
197 lbs
6′1″ avg · #214 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
250 lbs
6′5″ avg · #206 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
315 lbs
6′6″ avg · #148 of 779 · more than most
D-line
298 lbs
6′4″ avg · #115 of 753 · more than most
Edge
259 lbs
6′4″ avg · #60 of 188 · a typical amount
Linebacker
237 lbs
6′2″ avg · #68 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
196 lbs
6′0″ avg · #113 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows P from high school
100%
#29 of 29 stints
Grows K from high school
80%
#52 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2015: Beat Florida 41–7 Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl2016: Lost to Florida State 32–33 Capital One Orange Bowl2017: Lost to South Carolina 19–26 Outback Bowl2018: Lost to Florida 15–41 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl2019: Lost to Alabama 16–35 Vrbo Citrus Bowl2021: Lost to Georgia 11–34 CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl2022: Lost to TCU 45–51 CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl2023: Beat Alabama 27–20 CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game Pres. by Prudential2023: Beat Washington 34–13 CFP National Championship Pres. by AT&T

69 NFL Draft picks: Devin Funchess (2015), Frank Clark (2015), Jake Ryan (2015), Graham Glasgow (2016), Willie Henry (2016), Jake Rudock (2016), Jabrill Peppers (2017), Taco Charlton (2017) + 61 more

Coach of the Year: Big Ten Dave McClain Coach of the Year/Big Ten Hayes–Schembechler Coach of the Year (2022)

8 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Aidan Hutchinson (2021), Jake Moody (2021), Blake Corum (2022), Olu Oluwatimi (2022), Will Johnson (2023), Blake Corum (2023), Mike Sainristil (2023), Zak Zinter (2023)

89–25
2007–2010
Stanfordbuilder
National Program III → Power Program III
Jim Harbaugh raised Stanford from National Program III to Power Program III.

10th-best Stanford tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Followed Walt Harris (2005–2006) · succeeded by David Shaw (2011–2022).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints

10 NFL Draft picks: Trent Edwards (2007), Michael Okwo (2007), Brandon Harrison (2007), Toby Gerhart (2010), Jim Dray (2010), Erik Lorig (2010), Sione Fua (2011), Owen Marecic (2011) + 2 more

29–21

Defining games during this era

2024 NCG · Michigan 34, Washington 132024 Rose Bowl semifinal · Michigan 27, Alabama 20 (OT)2022 The Game · Michigan 45, Ohio State 232023 The Game · Michigan 30, Ohio State 242022 Fiesta Bowl semifinal · TCU 51, Michigan 452019 The Game · Ohio State 56, Michigan 27