Stanford: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2026–now

Tavita Pritchard Short tenure

2026 defense ranked in the 1th percentile nationally — historically bad

4-5

2025

Frank Reich Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

4-8

2023–2024

Troy Taylor Short tenure

2023 defense ranked in the 3th percentile nationally — historically bad

6-18

2011–2022

David Shaw Builder

David Shaw raised the Cardinal from Power Program III to Power Program I.

Swung 21.7 points of pass rate — #14 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

+15.5 pts over 12 seasons · top 37% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jim Grobe’s Wake Forest run (2001–2013)

1st-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Harbaugh (2007–2010) · succeeded by Troy Taylor (2023–2024).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Record & result
Record	11-2	12-2	11-3	8-5	12-2	10-3	9-5	9-4	4-8	4-2	3-9	3-9
Postseason	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#22	#7	#52	#13	#24	#16	#14	#40	#21	#21	#51	#19
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	44.6	42.1	34.7	44.4	34.3	36.8	43.1	52.4	55.9	53.1	53.4	54.4
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	Mike Bloomgren	Mike Bloomgren	Mike Bloomgren	Mike Bloomgren	Tavita Pritchard	Tavita Pritchard	Tavita Pritchard	Tavita Pritchard	Tavita Pritchard
DC	—	—	—	Lance Anderson	Lance Anderson	Lance Anderson	Lance Anderson	Lance Anderson	Lance Anderson	Lance Anderson	Lance Anderson	Lance Anderson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	98	62	76	71	93	56	80	70	48	82	14	20
Defense	74	87	77	95	38	64	27	48	24	7	8	16
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	41.7	33.4	31.4	37.3	28.2	33.4	32.3	48.0	50.6	45.9	53.8	51.2
Red-zone pass%	48.3	39.7	34.0	43.6	30.1	30.9	43.1	42.9	46.6	37.9	48.2	46.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	21.9	25.6	13.8	22.2	29.7	14.0	22.7	22.9	7.9	16.7	28.6	22.2

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-4.0 pts

#129 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-31.6 pts

#199 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.5★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-10

#183 of 187 FBS stints

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

9.2

position-weighted

Talent lost

28.9

position-weighted

Net

-19.7

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Joshua Pakola (EDGE) from Stanford

Biggest loss: Joshua Pakola (EDGE) to Stanford

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Mike Bloomgren → Tavita Pritchard · 2018The system held

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 32.9% → 49.3% (+16.4 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 87% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

222 lbs

6′5″ avg · #121 of 767 · top quarter

Running back

207 lbs

5′11″ avg · #399 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

212 lbs

6′3″ avg · #4 of 791 · top quarter

Tight end

252 lbs

6′4″ avg · #145 of 731 · top quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

308 lbs

6′5″ avg · #410 of 779 · middle half

D-line

276 lbs

6′4″ avg · #548 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

237 lbs

6′2″ avg · #72 of 772 · top quarter

Cornerback

194 lbs

6′0″ avg · #187 of 771 · top quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Punter from high school

100%

#29 of 29 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2011: Lost to Oklahoma State 38-41 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl2012: Beat Wisconsin 20-14 Rose Bowl Game Presented By Vizio2013: Lost to Michigan State 20-24 Rose Bowl Game Presented By Vizio2014: Beat Maryland 45-21 Foster Farms Bowl2015: Beat Iowa 45-16 Rose Bowl Game Pres. By Northwestern Mutual2016: Beat North Carolina 25-23 Bowl2017: Lost to TCU 37-39 Valero Alamo Bowl2018: Beat Pittsburgh 14-13 Bowl

48 NFL Draft picks: Andrew Luck (2012), David DeCastro (2012), Coby Fleener (2012), Jonathan Martin (2012), Zach Ertz (2013), Levine Toilolo (2013), Stepfan Taylor (2013), Trent Murphy (2014) + 40 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Joshua Karty (2022)

+15.5

96-54

2007–2010

Jim Harbaugh Builder

Jim Harbaugh raised the Cardinal from National Program III to Power Program III.

2010 offense ranked in the 95th percentile nationally — elite

+15.1 pts over 4 seasons · top 1% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Dan Hawkins’s Boise State run (2001–2005)

9th-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Walt Harris (2005–2006) · succeeded by David Shaw (2011–2022).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2007	2008	2009	2010
Record & result
Record	4-8	5-7	8-5	12-1
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	#51	#47	#21	#25
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	48.7	36.9	36.9	41.5
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	17	70	92	95
Defense	49	21	9	79
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	40.5	28.6	31.6	38.0
Red-zone pass%	35.6	20.4	24.3	33.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	22.5	22.9	30.6	37.5

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2009: Lost to Oklahoma 27-31 Bowl2010: Beat Virginia Tech 40-12 Discover Orange Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: Toby Gerhart (2010), Jim Dray (2010), Erik Lorig (2010), Sione Fua (2011), Owen Marecic (2011), Richard Sherman (2011), Ryan Whalen (2011)

+15.1

29-21

2005–2006

Walt Harris Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

6-17

2002–2004

Buddy Teevens Steady

Buddy Teevens slid Stanford from National Program I to National Program II in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−7.0 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 25% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: George Chaump’s Navy run (1990–1994)

13th-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Tyrone Willingham (1995–2001) · succeeded by Walt Harris (2005–2006).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2002	2003	2004
Record & result
Record	2-9	4-7	4-7
Postseason	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	#60
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	53.7
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	6
Defense	—	—	51
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	48.3
Red-zone pass%	—	—	62.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	36.4

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Interior line from high school

100%

#198 of 224 stints

Grows Safety from high school

100%

#201 of 218 stints

13 NFL Draft picks: Kwame Harris (2003), Teyo Johnson (2003), Colin Branch (2003), Casey Moore (2003), Amon Gordon (2004), Kirk Chambers (2004), Drew Caylor (2004), Oshiomogho Atogwe (2005) + 5 more

−7.0

10-23

1995–2001

Tyrone Willingham Steady

Tyrone Willingham held the Cardinal at National Program I for 7 seasons.

−3.8 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 28% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jack Bicknell’s Louisiana Tech run (1999–2006)

10th-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Bill Walsh (1992–1994) · succeeded by Buddy Teevens (2002–2004).

Season	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
Record & result
Record	7-4-1	7-5	5-6	3-8	8-4	5-6	9-3
Postseason	L bowl	W bowl	—	—	L bowl	—	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1995: Lost to East Carolina 13-19 Bowl1996: Beat Michigan State 38-0 Bowl1999: Lost to Wisconsin 9-17 Bowl2001: Lost to Georgia Tech 14-24 Bowl

19 NFL Draft picks: Greg Clark (1997), Brad Badger (1997), Brian Manning (1997), Nathan Parks (1997), Kailee Wong (1998), Jon Ritchie (1998), Chris Draft (1998), Carl Hansen (1998) + 11 more

−3.8

44-36-1

1977–1978, 1992–1994

Bill Walsh Steady

Bill Walsh moved the Cardinal from National Program I to Power Program III in 5 seasons.

+6.4 pts over 5 seasons · top 10% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jerry Kill’s Northern Illinois run (2008–2010)

6th-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Jack Christiansen (1972–1976) · succeeded by Ron Dowhower (1979) · returned in 1992, succeeding Dennis Green (1989–1991) · succeeded by Tyrone Willingham (1995–2001).

Season	1977	1978	1992	1993	1994
Record & result
Record	9-3	8-4	10-3	4-7	3-7-1
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1977: Beat LSU 24-14 Bowl1978: Beat Georgia 25-22 Bowl1992: Beat Penn State 24-3 Bowl

16 NFL Draft picks: James Lofton (1978), Gordon King (1978), Guy Benjamin (1978), Bill Kellar (1978), Steve Dils (1979), Phil Francis (1979), Darrien Gordon (1993), Glyn Milburn (1993) + 8 more

+6.4

34-24-1

1989–1991

Dennis Green Steady

Dennis Green moved the Cardinal from National Program II to National Program I in 3 seasons.

+2.9 pts over 3 seasons · top 20% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Tisdel’s Nevada run (1996–1999)

11th-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Jack Elway (1984–1988) · succeeded by Bill Walsh (1992–1994).

Season	1989	1990	1991
Record & result
Record	3-8	5-6	8-4
Postseason	—	—	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—

Postseason detail1991: Lost to Georgia Tech 17-18 Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: Rob Hinckley (1990), Alan Grant (1990), Lester Archambeau (1990), Ed McCaffrey (1991), Kevin Scott (1991), Bob Whitfield (1992), Tommy Vardell (1992)

+2.9

16-18

1984–1988

Jack Elway Steady

Jack Elway slid Stanford from National Program I to National Program II in 5 seasons.

−3.4 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 46% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tom Craft’s San Diego State run (2002–2005)

12th-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Paul Wiggin (1980–1983) · succeeded by Dennis Green (1989–1991).

Season	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988
Record & result
Record	5-6	4-7	8-4	5-6	3-6-2
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1986: Lost to Clemson 21-27 Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Garin Veris (1985), Tom Briehl (1985), Emile Harry (1985), Jeff Deaton (1985), Matt Moran (1985), David Wyman (1987), Thomas Henley (1987), Tony Leiker (1987)

−3.4

25-29-2

1980–1983

Paul Wiggin Steady

Paul Wiggin slid Stanford from Power Program III to National Program I in 4 seasons.

−3.6 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 44% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jerry Baldwin’s Louisiana run (1999–2001)

8th-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Ron Dowhower (1979) · succeeded by Jack Elway (1984–1988).

9 NFL Draft picks: Brian Holloway (1981), Ken Margerum (1981), Darrin Nelson (1982), Doug Rogers (1982), Andre Tyler (1982), John Elway (1983), Chris Dressel (1983), Vincent White (1983) + 1 more

−3.6

16-28

1979

Ron Dowhower Short tenure

5-5-1

1972–1976

Jack Christiansen Steady

Jack Christiansen slid Stanford from Power Program II to National Program I in 5 seasons.

−6.9 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 26% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Dana Dimel’s Houston run (2000–2002)

5th-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed John Ralston (1963–1971) · succeeded by Bill Walsh (1977–1978).

10 NFL Draft picks: Jim Merlo (1973), Mike Askea (1973), Mike Boryla (1974), Jim Ferguson (1974), John Winesberry (1974), Rod Garcia (1974), Pat Donovan (1975), Tony Hill (1977) + 2 more

−6.9

30-22-3

1963–1971

John Ralston Builder

John Ralston raised the Cardinal from Regional Program I to Power Program II.

+20.2 pts over 9 seasons · top 3% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gary Barnett’s Northwestern run (1992–1998)

4th-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Jack Curtice (1958–1962) · succeeded by Jack Christiansen (1972–1976).

Season	1963	1964	1965	1966	1967	1968	1969	1970	1971
Record & result
Record	3-7	5-5	6-3-1	5-5	5-5	6-3-1	7-2-1	9-3	9-3
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	W bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1970: Beat Ohio State 27-17 Bowl1971: Beat Michigan 13-12 Bowl

+20.2

55-36-3

1958–1962

Jack Curtice Steady≈

Jack Curtice slid Stanford from National Program I to National Program II in 5 seasons.

−14.7 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 3% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Fred Vonappen’s Hawai'i run (1996–1998)

14th-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Chuck Taylor (1951–1957) · succeeded by John Ralston (1963–1971).

−14.7

14-36

1951–1957

Chuck Taylor Steady

Chuck Taylor slid the Cardinal from National Program I to Power Program III in 7 seasons.

−3.8 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 28% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tyrone Willingham’s Stanford run (1995–2001)

7th-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Marchy Schwartz (1946–1950) · succeeded by Jack Curtice (1958–1962).

−3.8

40-29-2

1942, 1946–1950

Marchy Schwartz Steady

Marchy Schwartz slid Stanford from Power Program II to National Program I in 6 seasons.

−11.8 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 3% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Frank Solich’s Nebraska run (1998–2003)

3rd-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Clark Shaughnessy (1940–1941) · succeeded by Chuck Taylor (1951–1957).

−11.8

28-28-4

1940–1941

Clark Shaughnessy Short tenure

16-3

1936–1939

Tiny Thornhill Steady

Tiny Thornhill held Stanford at Power Program II for 4 seasons.

2nd-best Stanford tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Clark Shaughnessy (1940–1941).

Power Program II

10-21-5