No game this week · Sat Nov 14, time to be announced · VTVirginia Tech is 6-2 · First meeting between Pritchard and James Franklin as head coaches · Stanford’s chance to win: 15% (the site’s model)
Stanford vs Arizona WBB Not a very encouraging start. Stanford is turning the ball over like crazy and Arizona is ahead 8-2. SMH. 20-11 end of first quarter. I guess nobody is following this game. Let me tell you gang, you ain't missing much.
Stanford's road losing streak grows to school-record 15 games after 52-24 loss in Louisville
4-5 with a pair of conference wins. There are at least six ACC teams worse than us this year
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 78th of 138 per play. Defense: 137th.
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Stanford. The other two rows are where Stanford stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
3 games left
Sat Nov 14at VTVirginia Tech (6-2)15%
Sat Nov 21at CALCalifornia (3-6)47%
Sat Nov 28vs. SMUSMU (6-2)10%
Percent: Stanford’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today.
How the season got here
Where Stanford stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Oct 26–Nov 1L 24-52 at LOULouisville1 headline · 87th of 138
Oct 19–25W 31-28 vs. NCSUNC State0 headlines
Oct 12–18W 34-7 vs. ELONElon0 headlines
Oct 5–11L 7-58 at NDNotre Dame2 headlines · 70th of 138
Sep 28–Oct 4L 3-57 at WAKEWake Forest0 headlines
Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 34-27 vs. GTGeorgia Tech0 headlines
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
2%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool79th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
His first rated season here.
His hot seat, week by week
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
← swipe for earlier seasons
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
▼ Cooler
Year 1· tenure, which this model overrates(why?)
Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.
▲ Hotter
4-5, outscored by 153
▼ Cooler
No previous seasons here to judge him on
What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
Were 4-5 after 9 games
10% pushed out over results · of 415 coaches
Were in year 1, after 9 games
1% pushed out over results · of 518 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
Fans
Fan chatter
Oct 23W 31-28 vs. NC Statedid pritchard press the wrong button and didn't want to call a timeout lolSTANStanford fan
Sep 26W 34-27 vs. Georgia TechTavita "Chip Kelly" PritchardSTANStanford fan
Aug 29W 37-27 vs. Hawai'iIn the books! It took exactly one hour for the Pritchard era of Stanford Football to force me to drinkSTANStanford fan
Several stories about him in the last 30 days
Bye week. Next: Virginia Tech, Sat Nov 14
from a few outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Signature games
0-2 vs. AP top 25 · 0-2 vs. the top 10
Signature wins
WNC
NC State · 2026
31-28
UpsetQuality opponent
WGT
Georgia Tech · 2026
34-27
UpsetQuality opponent
WHA
Hawai'i · 2026
37-27
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LND
Notre Dame · 2026
7-58
Rival
LMI
Miami · 2026
6-45
LDU
Duke · 2026
7-35
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season
Building the roster
Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
No class below is fully his yet — every one was inherited or signed mid-transition, so none counts toward a verdict.
2026
#37
Transition
Transition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
29%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 33 of 113 players. The other 80 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 33Inherited 80
Of his own players on this roster, 9% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 9% of the 33 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Where he recruits
CATop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 6 of 23 signees (26%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 11 states in all. Next: AZ (3).
Where his signees came from, 2026–2026 (23 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
43% of his signees come from CA and its 3 border states (AZ 3, NV 1).
By region
West
11
South
9
Northeast
3
Roster distance from campus (Stanford Stadium, CA)
median hometown distance
1,624 mi
within 100 mi
11%
within 500 mi
28%
beyond 1,000 mi
61%
106 of 113 roster players with a known hometown (94% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
Hired into programs rated 29 to 29 (National Program III tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 4 had the program higher than he found it by the end of his run and 1 lower. Median stay: 4 seasons.
Every coach hired into a National Program III job since 1990 (65): typically -1.7 after year 1, -3.2 after year 2.
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 192 lbs
across 3 of 6 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-4.6 lbs
#254 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Fr
#255 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: CA (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
29.5
position-weighted
Talent lost
42.8
position-weighted
Net
-13.4
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Davis Warren (QB) from Michigan
Biggest loss: Elijah Brown (QB) to Washington
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Safety from high school
100%
#201 of 218 stints
AI Narratives — “Stanford — stat check”.
4-5
How good is he so far?
Program lift
Year 1
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
Too new to grade — in-season movement only
Stanford’s composite stature has fallen since preseason: 28.4 entering the year to 26.2 through week 10 (Regional Program I) · #25 of 138 in movement since preseason · top quarter.
